Another month has passed and it is time for Algoport ver four update:
Jan 2018 is a suckish month for my port. I made a loss of 0.4% M-o-M. The loss is mainly from IDS [ -5.22 % ] and RHB - EMB [ -3.64% ]. Both I have sold mid Jan 18 with a cut - loss intention. Moved them to Dinasti and KGF.
IDS was an experimental exposure for me, I placed only a small amount, about RM 15K only for test water.
As for RHB - EMB, I entered in July 2017 because it offered a good risk to reward ratio [ 1.5 ] at that time and a low corr-coeff. It was also a bet on the strong USD / MYR movement. Now, two of the three criterias are no longer there, it does not look attractive to me anymore and have no place in my port. Forex is a double edged sword. It cuts both ways... I shall remember that.
For those who play forex, remember, you are a trader not an investor. In my book, a trader role is buy-sell an asset, whereas an investors are passive, they are not concern with the daily up and down. Neither are wrong and both group of people can make money. You just need to be aware which group you belong too because the strategies employed will be different.
On Esther bond, she is behaving badly recently... like Aoi Sora on a bad flu day. I have identified a replacement for her. I have also identified the exit point, if and when she [ Esther Bond ] hits a certain threshold, she will be replaced.
On the winner side, I have TA Tech, KGF and Dinasti to mitigate my loss.
Some technical indicators:
12 mths rolling ROI is 6.XX %
12 months rolling Std-dev is 8.XX%
12 months rolling risk to reward ratio < 1. Not so good... will try to be better.
Skewness is slight positive, which means the port has a slight tendency to have an outcome that is +ve to the mean.
Kurtosis is negative. Negative kurtosis means that the data points have greater tendency to congregate at the mean outcome than a positive kurtosis. I lay man's term, positive kurtosis aka excess kurtosis means the sample set has a greater tendency for extreme outlier outcome.
Xuzen
p/s Nothing much to be excited about my port, now looking forward to another ang-pow / bonus. That is to say, KWSP's distribution announcement. Two more weeks of waiting.
Please take note that SSPN has already announced their 4% dividend for 2017, and the dividend is already in the system.
I'm interested to add std-dev and risk to reward ratio into my excel calculation. Can you share how can I calculate this values?