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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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SUSGenY
post Jul 10 2017, 06:58 PM

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Talking about trends etc while ignoring fundamentals = voodoo economics? laugh.gif

Your 'prediction' is too simplistic lah, I also have some interest in cycles and have read up on property cycles , economic cycles, emotional cycles, 10 year cycles, 20 year real estate cycles, etc etc. Now even a femes 'property guru' is talking cycles, basically saying the bottom is near and it's now time to BBB.

Having read the various experts' cycle arguments and thus becumming a semi-expert in cycles myself, I believe your "2019, 2020 confirm up balik" prediction is wrong, unless it's a slow, slow climb. Once reason being the huge incoming supply of affordable properties.

But I won't waste time going into details. I prefer the UUU crowd to be caught by (unpleasant) surprise brows.gif

QUOTE(scorptim @ Jul 7 2017, 06:11 PM)
Still bottom will be by 2019, 2020 confirm up balik.

This is based on previous trend even during the bottom during AFC time the property prices started going back up after 2 years.
Mana ada stagnant for many years by 2000 it was already going back up...jliew168 already show you the stats
Yes it's already too late for those flippers who jumped during the bull run. Only those with high holding power can jump during the bull run and then have to hold for about a decade to reap the fruit.

That is the reason I'm telling you to buy before the next bull run which means buying by 2019 at the latest coz 2020 will be the new bull run, then you'd be stuck again like during 2011-2015 coz you missed the bottom.
The reality is that a lot of people not willing to buy at current prices as opposed to not being able to afford to buy. By the time property prices across goes down by 20% (bottom), people will start buying again.

As you said, by 2030 kangkong land will become an aging nation. There may be other investment opportunities but the older people would usually not take the risk and invest in the oldest most stanle form of investment which is property.
Um...in almost every investment, people always aim to buy as close as possible to the bottom. It makes no sense to buy during bull run when you can buy closer to the bottom at 20% cheaper and make extra profit.
Agreed on this, by 2020 will be another bull run. Super bull or not, that one I not sure, but im damn sure it will be another bull run by then.
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SUSGenY
post Jul 15 2017, 11:54 PM

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You didn't follow the news? Now most developers are jumping into the affordable housing aka below RM500k bandwagon. Mah Sing, UOA, Titijaya among others have very competatively priced products lined up. There are now RM2XX-3xxk apartments and RM4XXk landed in Kajang/Bangi.

Sorry, I can't help but snigger a bit at your 'predictions', as if you have a crystal ball. 20% drop from current prices by 2018 or 2019, correct? I think things won't turn out as u expected but ... ah, well ... time will tell.

QUOTE(scorptim @ Jul 10 2017, 07:50 PM)
What fundamentals did I miss? Supply and demand? I thought I've already clarified that the current oversupply is due to people not willing to buy at current prices. But if property prices in kv drop by 20% then the demand would meet the supply. This is based on the take up of pr1ma properties in kv where the prima properties which are around 400k are swept up by people. Since currently there are many kv properties which are priced around 500k, a 20% drop would bring it to pretty much the same price tag as those pr1ma properties. People would start buying by then.

I've also mentioned that 2011 to 2014 was a super bull for the property sector, by 2020 I'm predicting it to be back to bullish, meaning prices would go up. Even slow climb is still a climb, even if the climb mirrors the inflation rate, you still end up paying more than buying during bottom.

What huge incoming supply of affordable properties are you talking about pr1ma? Rumahwip? If you really observe the launching prices of these properties, you will notice that it's not exactly much cheaper than other similar type of properties in the same area. Usually only 20-30% lower than the prices of other similar properties with the same size and location. So when the bottom comes next year or in 2019, when the other normal properties with no restrictions such as pr1ma and rumahwip drops by 20% and becomes almost the same price, it's pretty much a no brainer that people would buy the one without restrictions.
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