this report, analysis is good, very sound.
"MYR might strengthen against SGD"... i read it saying MAS might recalibrate their band and slope to keep the SGD from rising in tandem with USD, i.e. it needs to balance with the SGD with RM and RMB which are major trading partners. now, that has been speculated, rumured since >1 year ago. yet, month after month, it strengthens against the RM.
last couple of days, SGD declined against RM. i see this as not due to MAS/SGD but that the USD regaining strength from $ index 99.6100 to 102 to 101.4 today as the fed gets hawkish. The RM has been crawl pegged to the USD (at 4.45) with BNM intervention which explains why it gained against SGD.
for the near future, i do not see MAS/SGD doing anything unusual. and i quite certain the fed will hike rates by 25bps on mar 15 (mar 16 here).
where the RM goes will depend how much more BNM wants to intervene with FX reserves to keep up with USD.
my bet is after fed hike rates, it will let go and let it slip but not higher than 4.50.
SGD will be closer to 3.20.
just what i think... let's see, shall we?
