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 USD/MYR v5

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kopifan
post Mar 2 2017, 07:31 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 1 2017, 02:15 PM)
Lets us 'slow slow' wait for it then.  sweat.gif

Honestly speaking, I dont see any reasons for there to be a 'major' reversal.  unsure.gif
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Personally I don't expect the "major" reversal until 2H18 sweat.gif
Sometime "major" reversal could be due to hype/hope/projections/excuses etc etc unless it is for real hmm.gif

kopifan
post Mar 2 2017, 07:36 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 1 2017, 04:03 PM)
how has fdi been in the last 10 years, what changes?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...rect-investment
oh, it can.

currency values are not random. depends how the power ones manage the economy.

some go down, stay down and down some more - for decades.

dong, rupiah included.
http://life-in-saudiarabia.blogspot.my/201...s-of-world.html
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I was answering someone's q on why no impact from Saudi's recent non-binding MOU
That is why major reversal could be for real or driven by hype hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 2 2017, 07:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 1 2017, 05:32 PM)
analysts are analysts.

predictions are just what they are - predictions.

while the band of "rm will strengthen to xyz" experts have gone all silent, here's a new one from across the causeway.
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As much as I hate to say, sgd is advancing to 3.25 level imho doh.gif
kopifan
post Mar 4 2017, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 2 2017, 04:14 PM)
Well, Sgp government manages the economy well. Cant blame them. But to be honest, I think many countries are doing fine because the only currency that is on a free fall now seems to be only the RM.  shakehead.gif
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Still need to endure the prevailing currency trend for some time doh.gif
kopifan
post Mar 4 2017, 07:46 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 3 2017, 03:59 PM)
Who doesn't want SGD now. Its 3.18 today at the money changers.  sweat.gif
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So far i saw buy @3.153 (MVM) and sell @ 3.19 (KLCC) rclxub.gif
kopifan
post Mar 4 2017, 07:50 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 4 2017, 02:55 AM)
fed likely to hike rates on mar 15.

will be interesting to see if bnm will continue to use reserves to intervene or let go.
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Next week 6th-8th stay tune press release on International Reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia as at 28 Feb 17 hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 8 2017, 08:01 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 6 2017, 05:18 PM)
this report, analysis is good, very sound.

"MYR might strengthen against SGD"... i read it saying MAS might recalibrate their band and slope to keep the SGD from rising in tandem with USD, i.e. it needs to balance with the SGD with RM and RMB which are major trading partners. now, that has been speculated, rumured since >1 year ago. yet, month after month, it strengthens against the RM.

last couple of days, SGD declined against RM. i see this as not due to MAS/SGD but that the USD regaining strength from $ index 99.6100 to 102 to 101.4 today as the fed gets hawkish. The RM has been crawl pegged to the USD (at 4.45) with BNM intervention which explains why it gained against SGD.

for the near future, i do not see MAS/SGD doing anything unusual. and i quite certain the fed will hike rates by 25bps on mar 15 (mar 16 here).

where the RM goes will depend how much more BNM wants to intervene with FX reserves to keep up with USD.

my bet is after fed hike rates, it will let go and let it slip but not higher than 4.50.

SGD will be closer to 3.20.

just what i think... let's see, shall we? tongue.gif
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Our FX reserves has been stable at USD95b since end Jan-17 hmm.gif
SGD support imho is potentially at ~ 3.10 (mid point 3.07-3.12) ?!? hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 11 2017, 02:29 PM

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SGD run up this round is only ~ 40% in term of time-frame imho sweat.gif

kopifan
post Mar 11 2017, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(virgoguy @ Mar 11 2017, 12:24 PM)
How about nzd? Drop from 3.25 to 3.15. will it drop again.?
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Maybe strong support at 3.03? hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 16 2017, 07:36 AM

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All forex (except USD) spiked vs MYR after 0.25% rate hike rclxub.gif

AUD +2.1%
NZD +1.6%
EURO +1.3%
GBP +0.9%
SGD +0.8%
kopifan
post Mar 16 2017, 08:15 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 16 2017, 07:46 AM)
Gone la. Another round of decreasing RM sad.gif  cry.gif
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Let's see how the money changers rates today rclxub.gif
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 16 2017, 04:08 PM)
Itu dia... SGD 3.163 at fav money changers as of today. AUD at 3.435.  sweat.gif
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Which money changers? I saw sell @ 3.17/3.42 Pavillion, buy @ 3.15/3.38 rclxub.gif
At this rate 3.28/SGD and 3.51/AUD reachable soon? doh.gif

This post has been edited by kopifan: Mar 17 2017, 07:45 AM
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 16 2017, 04:14 PM)
I think it might tank to back to 3.155 once the euphoria is over... sad.gif
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I m bullish and targeting short term 3.28? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kopifan: Mar 17 2017, 08:07 AM
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 07:54 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 16 2017, 04:19 PM)
I would disagree. SGD is known to go up and rarely comes down.
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still uptrend? doh.gif

This post has been edited by kopifan: Mar 17 2017, 08:07 AM
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 17 2017, 09:59 AM)
Yeah,... the MAS said to investors last night that they do not intend to lower the SGD band in the coming policy meeting in April because the economy looks okay now,... if this happens, then the SGD will run faster up against our RM,... don't know wished to be happy or sad here !
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doh.gif
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 17 2017, 10:20 AM)
there has been a slew of news pointing to a strengthening sg economy again - property and exports in particular.
sg stocks, sgreits, sgd - will stay strong.

of course, if still on a rm->sgd buying spree, that offers little chance. then again, u can't get all of it right all the time! the volatility is certain to keep coming, no doubt. the $'s been hammered sicne rate hike, compounded by the strong euro. but it's always the same... give it a few weeks and the $ bulls will return.

the question then is will BNM continue to crawl peg? somehow, given all i know at this time, i hold the view that there simply isn't enough fx ammo for RM to follow closely when $ goes up but will follow when $ goes down. dunno when but at some point, i say it will break away - that, i need not describe the details. tongue.gif
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sing has loosened up some property cooling measures just recently to spur demands
their exports r shoring up the weak domestic sector
FX reserves as of mid-Mar will be released next week i think hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 17 2017, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Aurora Boreali @ Mar 17 2017, 01:27 PM)
Hi peeps, I asked this in the FSM thread but wonder if you guys here have a different view point.

I recently came back to Malaysia after close to 2 years of earning foreign income and brought back with me some foreign currency (from the former land of convicts) which is sitting in my FCA now...

With the current weakening RM, should I convert it out to RM and then invest in funds or should I just keep it in the FCA without earning any interests to hedge against the historically downward trend of RM?

Dilemma. Sifu please advise  icon_question.gif
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If I m to convert into RM then invest in funds, I will assess the risk-returns of the funds
If I m to hold on to AUD, I will assess the upsides-downsides of AUD
I will then compare the two
Personally I think the AUD major up-trend started in 2016 ~ 2.93.
Now imho just watch the 3.34 strong support hmm.gif
Do your own due diligence of course thumbup.gif




kopifan
post Mar 19 2017, 08:13 AM

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http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...st-in-malaysia/ hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 19 2017, 01:38 PM

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Imho MYR could be bearish until 3rd week next month, then turn bullish for 1 month hmm.gif
kopifan
post Mar 20 2017, 06:22 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 19 2017, 01:59 PM)
The reason for bullish? Don't tell me GE?
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Don't really care about reason. Reasons r aftermath hmm.gif

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