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 USD/MYR v5

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Hansel
post Jun 19 2018, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 18 2018, 09:48 AM)
This morning :-

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...with-fed-hikes/

Some excerpts from the above article :-

1) Higher U.S. rates are rattling many emerging markets in much the same way past tightening cycles did, but the Federal Reserve's hawkishness could also bring cheer for a small group of Asian economies that wouldn't mind seeing their currencies weaken.

2) However, unlike those countries, which run current account deficits, central banks in external surplus countries such as Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia won't feel compelled to keep up with the Fed's rate hikes, analysts say.

3) Weaker currencies from portfolio outflows could help lift below-target inflation and give exporters a shot in the arm at a time of heightened uncertainty over global trade and signs that the Chinese economy may be losing steam.

A combination of a weak currency plus cheaper price of goods would make Msia a haven for residents,....
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Why do I mention a weak currency ?

As for cheaper price of goods, we are debating the above now,....
Hansel
post Jun 20 2018, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(powerlinkers @ Jun 20 2018, 03:05 AM)
You are wrong. Nexona is right.

1.Malaysians are not innovative enough.We do not have sizeable population with high IQs.
2.We do not have a large market such EU, USA, China and India. ASEAN is useless.
3.We depend on trade to survive. We are a net oil importer.

Shunning investor friendly policies and FDIs would be detrimental to us in short and long term.

Malaysia will face severe economic crisis during the next global downturn and when the oil price drops.
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Let's see then,... we have a new government here,... I wouldn't talk like you, who is right and who is wrong ! Firstly, you are already wrong to speak like this.

Secondly,... who said anything abt shunning investor-friendly policies ? Who said anything anything abt shunning FDIs ? We are talking abt a weakening Ringgit due to gov't policy. Since you started all these, then let me say that we have investor-friendly policies now and with our current open-door to FDIs, the effects of a depreciating currency may be mitigated. Why do you say we are shunning ???????

This is the thing abt people, I guessed,... easily calling out right and wrong,...

Your points 1) to 3) are,... well, reasonable,... but the election is going to move us in the first step towards correcting what you said. Trust the elections, trust the people YOU VOTED FOR !

Frankly,... I don't think economic policies are so easy just like what you said,.. or what all of us thought out to be,... from the economic books, etc,.. I think government can intervene a lot and make things better, by being creative in their policies,... it's a matter of whether they wished to do it or not only,.. and where they put their priority that caused the 'trickle down' effects to us at the bottom of the supply-chain.

By the way - hmm,.. to your points 1) to 3) above,.. if the republic in the south can overcome the above issues, I think,.. we can too,... but don't know how long it will take,... They have done well till today, though nobody can tell the future...
Hansel
post Jun 20 2018, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 19 2018, 02:59 PM)
Why do I mention a weak currency ?

As for cheaper price of goods, we are debating the above now,....
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NO opinions to why I said the above ?? Bros ? Sis's ?
Hansel
post Jun 20 2018, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jun 20 2018, 09:11 AM)
The USD strength is against all currencies. Since election, RM has strengthened against most other currencies...despite the selldown in Bursa and purported outflow of funds
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Yes,... thumbsup.gif

But still,... I dare not say we are out of the woods yet, long term, and I dare not bring back all my assets into Malaysia. And I dare not say I am right or I am wrong yet.

And I will keep telling my children to work somewhere else outside of Msia, and I will keep supporting the SGX, the SIAS, the MAS, the SGD and Hyflux. biggrin.gif

But,.. I will not sell away my properties in Msia, and I will not give up my business in Msia,...

BUT : I see signs, healthy signs,.. I see the RM strengthening when MANY OTHER CURRENCIES in emerging mkts in Asia and South America are falling. hmm,... so many buts,...
Hansel
post Jun 20 2018, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jun 20 2018, 09:42 AM)
Ya, too short a time to make any conclusion about RM long term movement. Hopefully, by the removal of common excuse to sell RM (being 1MDB), RM will continue to strengthen lah. Transparency and "overstating" of national debt is good. Any improvement in debt level from now onwards is positive on RM.
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Emm,... yes !,... we earn the RM day in and day out,.. hopefully can become stronger-lar,... BUT : I think for this round of economic cycle, cannot recover too much,.. and for it to match back parity with the SGD, perhaps another,.. 20 years ??

Don't forget,..other countries will continue to move forward too. They are not staying put.
Hansel
post Jun 20 2018, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(Lionel90 @ Jun 20 2018, 09:43 AM)
Weak currency itself would lead to higher prices, right? So there's no way there's such perfect scenario where weak currency - to facilitate more exports - and cheaper price of goods exist at the same time. Definitely not in Malaysia where we import almost everything.
The only way for your point to make sense is that your "residents" referring to those earning strengthening foreign currencies or expats living their retired life here.
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Actually,... one thing that the gov't can do is to find ways to produce certain goods ourselves inside this country, without being over-dependant on outside. That's why I say : actually, the gov't can do something if it wishes to.

And yes, this is the point : The only way for your point to make sense is that your "residents" referring to those earning strengthening foreign currencies or expats living their retired life here.

Hence, we still have to diversify our currency holdings, in whatever gov't that we have,... we cannot and should not bring back everything whatever the promises... and continue to strive outside of the country in spite of whatever the promises given by a new gov't.
Hansel
post Jun 21 2018, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jun 16 2018, 08:57 PM)
Its expected...
Since rate hike..
Many fund manager pumping back their $$ into US
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But,... looks like Msia's name does not appear much as one of the countries that have capital flight in the media articles, bro,... I noticed the countries like The Philippines, Indonesia, Argentina, some South American countries appearing more,...
Hansel
post Jun 21 2018, 12:27 PM

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https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...y-to-slow-down/

If we can trust the above tables, then the BUrsa has the last outflow compared to the 'other' emerging mkts in Asia.

Hmm,... why no Singapore in the list ? I would certainly love to see Singapore's outflow in this table too.
Hansel
post Jun 21 2018, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 21 2018, 01:48 PM)
This is only one side of the book. How much foreign funds had in the respective market to begin with?
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Can explain more pls, bro ? confused.gif
Hansel
post Jun 22 2018, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(powerlinkers @ Jun 21 2018, 06:44 PM)
Hansel, with respect. You need to make decisions based on logic, not emotions. Our stock market is heading for a crash.

You need to analyse based on a 3rd person's perspective..

Do not get politically attached : when you make decisions : you need to make profit for yourself. Do not blindly trust the news spinned off by Pakatan Harapan finance minister and MPs, try to clarify the facts.

YB LGE is populist and not highly intelligent.

Reversal of GST is highly detrimental to our Malaysian economy.
Investors do not trust current government which advocates non-market centric policies.

If you are going for long: wait until at least 6 months post next crash.
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QUOTE(Ckmwpy0370 @ Jun 21 2018, 09:08 PM)
Cybertrooper !
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 22 2018, 08:53 AM)
Better than let someone suck the money slowly off the country. whistling.gif whistling.gif He done lots of things for Penang and he's an accountant by training.

Revelation is not surprising. Is already what many suspected but no proof.

It's OK.  Since when have mahathir follow the norms?
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Thank you, bros,... appreciated the high quality comments from both sides of the fence and the ethical methods with which they were presented.

Just on my side : I'm tempted to go into Bursa with funds from my Malaysian operations instead of transferring out further to Australia and Singapore,... but,... the decision is indeed hard !

...
Hansel
post Jun 24 2018, 01:40 AM

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Looks to me like some of us feel that the populist moves taken by the new gov't is causing negative effects towards the fiscal position of the gov't and its current account status. At one end, we are emjoying the 'good' things given by the gov't today.

But at the other end, we seemed to be worried of the 'weakening' fiscal position up there that may give uncertainty to foreign investors, and following this, we are worried that these foreign investors will run away, causing our Ringgit to sink further, etc,...
Hansel
post Jun 24 2018, 03:32 AM

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QUOTE(flight @ Jun 24 2018, 01:50 AM)
The fiscal situation isnt that weak. Rising oil prices will buffer the income loss from gst.

The question mark over the scandals is a much larger headwind for investors confidence in my opinion. Foreign investment should improve moving forward. Just on account of the scandals being put to rest and the ppl responsible held accountable.

I think closing the country off to the chinese investments is a terrible idea. But it wont kill the country.
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Tq bro,.... thumbsup.gif
Hansel
post Jun 25 2018, 08:31 AM

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Good discussions, bros,....
Hansel
post Jun 26 2018, 12:23 PM

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Msia mentioned in good stead in the below article :-

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/time-stock...e1ace2-92358833

Added the good mention here for easy reading : Nonetheless, Evans sees select undervalued opportunities among EMs such as in Malaysia, which he expects to remain supported by higher commodity prices, trade surplus, attractive valuations and high absolute rates.

May not amount to much,... but there is some spirit here for Msia,....

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jun 26 2018, 12:25 PM
Hansel
post Jun 27 2018, 09:14 AM

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Correct ! And these 'characters' will now be rushing to bank-in their piles and piles of cash into banks.

I now URGE the worldwide banking community to monitor, closer, large amounts of Ringgit Malaysia being brought-in for banking-in into the financial system.

Clean money has no fear of being banked-in.

In fact, like myself, I don't even carry too much cash around. Everything is in the banks. And in places like Singapore, a DBS ATM is always within walking distance from anywhere on the island, hence can always access cash easily !

There will be inconveniences in what Tun plan to do, but,... well,... this is what we call : short term pain and long term gain.

With this move,... I will be more than happy to pay more taxes and more than happy to contribute a percentage of my foreign dividends collected every month to that Tabung something, since I have nowhere to spend the money now,...

And has no intention to buy more assets at the moment.

After all,... leaving the $$$ in FDs in SG also earns peanuts,... might as well use the money to help gov't,... if gov't is good,... and don't waste our hard-earned money,....
Hansel
post Jun 28 2018, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 27 2018, 05:12 PM)
In previous gomen, those moved large quantity of cash are at top echelon, they ignored existing rules and regulations, enforcement agencies couldn't take any action while they were in power.
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 27 2018, 11:44 PM)
The smart ones already had their funds outside the country. what is inside the country is loose change or recently delivered.
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A longer time ago,... top echelon people can ignore rules and move funds out easily because they were above the law inside Msia. Foreign banks and Financial Institutions could not be bothered to check this money coming in. If there is money,... everybody is happy, no need to ask too much.

Then the 9-11 incident happened in NY. Terrorism financing became a big issue, which further evolved into money-laundering.

The same 'top-echelon people' were checked by foreign banks that needed them to declare where they got their funds from (source of funds), before those funds could be accepted for banking-in, egs into private banking accounts, etc,... they were 'inconvenienced' here.

Further subsequently, they were not even accepted as clients, say as in private banking clients, if they hold high positions in gov'ts ,etc,... the PEP (politically-exposed people) concept.... a new minister today has to close his account in a private bank in SG when he assumes that position.

Why are such people found to be accumulating so many cash-notes in their residences ? I really don't think that they are not aware that they can bank-in those cash-notes into an overseas bank account. I believe they are not able to do so securely, without risks of being discovered.

This is why they would only HIDE those cash-notes in the house,... waiting for a day to move them out,...


Edited to add the terrorism financing point.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jun 28 2018, 01:28 PM
Hansel
post Jun 29 2018, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 28 2018, 01:24 PM)
A longer time ago,... top echelon people can ignore rules and move funds out easily because they were above the law inside Msia. Foreign banks and Financial Institutions could not be bothered to check this money coming in. If there is money,... everybody is happy, no need to ask too much.

Then the 9-11 incident happened in NY. Terrorism financing became a big issue, which further evolved into money-laundering.

The same 'top-echelon people' were checked by foreign banks that needed them to declare where they got their funds from (source of funds), before those funds could be accepted for banking-in, egs into private banking accounts, etc,... they were 'inconvenienced' here.

Further subsequently, they were not even accepted as clients, say as in private banking clients, if they hold high positions in gov'ts ,etc,... the PEP (politically-exposed people) concept.... a new minister today has to close his account in a private bank in SG when he assumes that position.

Why are such people found to be accumulating so many cash-notes in their residences ? I really don't think that they are not aware that they can bank-in those cash-notes into an overseas bank account. I believe they are not able to do so securely, without risks of being discovered.

This is why they would only HIDE those cash-notes in the house,... waiting for a day to move them out,...


Edited to add the terrorism financing point.
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QUOTE(flight @ Jun 28 2018, 08:24 PM)
Alot of assumptions here.

The money that will be hurt the most is from those underworld activities.

While malaysia does have a corruption problems. Its not so bad.
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Morning bro,.. and thank you ofr your comments,...

This was quoted to me DIRECTLY by an experienced RM in the Private Banking industry : a new minister today has to close his account in a private bank in SG when he assumes that position.

Hence, to me,... this is NOT an assumption. But, bros and sis' here,... I would invite further comments to the above statement abt closing of accounts for new ministers,.. any theories, or perhaps real words from somebody credible, would be appreciated. Because if this is not true, then we must correct that private bank,... and that that private bank should not single out certain people from being able to open private banking accounts in SG.

The arguments of clean money is good,... but it should not be an overkill to the point that clean people are barred too,... because of dirty people with dirty money,...

Hmm,... I theorise that NO underworld activities will have more cash than what that were discovered these 1.5 months in those houses. Underworld in Msia cannot match that amount of money and items (jewellery, handbag, motor vehicles, etc) discovered.

... depending on how you define corruption and KLEPTOCRACISM, emm,... I think Msia would be 'top 5' in the modern world,...
Hansel
post Jun 29 2018, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 29 2018, 11:43 AM)
Not all private banks shut off cabinet minister as clients especially if ze was already a client before becoming a cabinet minister else dt cabinet would have complained.
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Tq iceman,... it would be good to hear the cabinet complaining of a particular bank (or private bank) if a minister's account is closed down, or not allowed to open. Who is 'ze' and what is 'dt' please ?


Hansel
post Jun 29 2018, 01:09 PM

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Further encouraging news abt our Ringgit,... as I expected earlier,....

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-fi...?xtor=EREC-16-1[BT_Newsletter_1]-20180629-[Asian+currencies+tumble+on+multiple+fear+factors]&xts=538380

"Year-to-date, the Malaysian ringgit, deemed a commodity currency, is the lone man standing in the region and has notched up gains against the greenback. But as the ringgit slips and narrows the gains - it was trading at 0.25 per cent over the US dollar as at Thursday evening - some say it may not be long before the currency gives up those returns and joins the crowd."
Hansel
post Jun 29 2018, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 29 2018, 02:33 PM)
dt=donald trump, ze=he/she
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Okay,... I was quoted directly on this matter earlier,... as per my above posts,... Perhaps it is different in The US then,.... from SG.

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