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 USD/MYR v5

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TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM

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Ringgit will not crash.

An analysis of the ringgit pattern during every last quarter of the year exemplifies that even though the currency remains volatile and people become jittery, it is not going to crash, and will hardly be traded beyond 4.50 against the US dollar, an economist said.

I wonder if these 'experts' have vested interests in making such speculations or they are 'instructed' by higher ups to contain panic among the public? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 19 2016, 04:25 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 19 2016, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 05:08 PM)
dr m did not do that in 1998 due to the conditions imposed by IMF.
the same conditions will apply now - and will be rejected.
becos the conditions will be about nep, civil service, mega projects.

going back to 1998, certain things happened to help the turnaround besides the peg. will current gomen do something like that or stick to "it will rebound (by itself)"?
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Borrowing from IMF would be like borrowing from a Loan Shark, a Global Loan Shark. It would allow them to exert enormous leverage over the economies as well of policies of running the country.

Heard Dr M had a Jew as an economic advisor by his side then. Not sure how true it was.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 19 2016, 05:44 PM)
The biggest mistake during that time, was the so called plenty of international expert advice by using high interest rate to counter the on going crisis.

All crisis hit countries be it IMF aided or non recovered after the interest rate was lowered down to be more optimum level, instead in double digit rate.
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Those who experienced 1997 would know better. 10% interest rates for car loans. sweat.gif

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 19 2016, 06:22 PM)
we watch for this...
what and how decreased output and price change will impact revenues, dividends, debt... and budget 2017... and the RM.
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Yes, when petrol prices soar, so will price of goods and inflation will rise. So will RM appreciatiate just because global petrol prices go up?
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 19 2016, 11:06 PM)
gold really bleeding atm and our rate is way to low for fd returns. I think they should start pushing up the rates soon. them as in BNM
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I agree with that. Thats the only few positive ways to prevent so much outflow of the RM. However, I agree that local consumption will suffer too. Markets are already slow now. sweat.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 20 2016, 09:16 AM)
ironically the ones who are saving for the hard days to come and investing the said monies are the ones stressing out over the economy. those buying the latest iPhones and filling the shopping mall's seem to be happier.

oblivious or just plain ignorant?
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I beg to differ on that. Im the type of guy who saves for the hard times to come but still buying the latest Iphones each year. I wonder where I stand? rolleyes.gif


What I want to say is that people should always spend within their means. Overspending will stimulate the economy in the short run as every business is doing well but how long can it last? People here are already over riddled with debt, all kinds of debt, u name it and they are still those who want to borrow. Heck even the government wants to keep borrowing. Increasing interest rates will be cruel but I do think that is what the current government can do to prepare for rainy days ahead (rainy days are already here by the way). The country desperately needs inflow of funds now more than ever rather the other way round.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 20 2016, 10:33 AM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2016, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 20 2016, 10:40 AM)
With more dibs properties vp in next 2 years, unless there is substantial income rise, expect disposable income e.g. consumers spending to reduce.
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Disposable income are already at all times low now bro. Im a frontliner in sales and I can tell you its already here. Coupled with the weak RM, spending is already reduced to a very low level. Try asking any business owners if they are experiencing good sales at this time and see.
Substancial income rise? I really dont see where that will come from. rolleyes.gif

What puzzles me is that, though with weak RM, you still see AirAsia zero fare tickets snapped up like mad and people travelling overseas for holidays now and then? rclxub.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2016, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 21 2016, 03:20 PM)
In that case, we better buy up all the USDs that we can before the fund mgrs come back after their Christmas and New Year holidays and start selling down the RM again. Hopefully, during this period the RM can take the opportunity to strengthen a bit ??
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I still think its too late to stock up on USD now.. its 4.48 now. sweat.gif

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 21 2016, 08:52 PM)
They have been very aggressive lately. Maybe because their business is affected as the customers shift their money overseas. Leaving very little behind in malaysia for them to manage  biggrin.gif
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Of course. If given a choice, who would want to leave their money in RM now. But then again, I would say many are saving their money for rainy days ahead or are so heavily in debt there is not enough to let them roll.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 22 2016, 09:43 AM)
It's not too late.

The key question is Expectation.

As we all expect ringgit will fall further, it's better to stock up any strong foreign currencies.

Fundamentals

Depleting Bank Negara reserves

foreigners selling off Malaysian equities and government bonds (foreigners own 40% of Malaysian bonds)

Negative impact on NDF controls - fuel further negative impacts

higher inflation

low economic growth

low oil price

1MDB

Ok, I'll stop being an Economist.

I'll just ask a simple question?

Would you like to hold USD100, SGD100, EUD100, AUD100 or RM100 in the future?

Forget about travelling overseas - 1 ringgit buys 22 cents USD
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True to that. But we cant be converting all our money into foreign currencies. There is always a gut feeling / worry that the rm will appreciate a lot after we changed all into foreign currencies. So we have to keep in balance what we plan to do with our cash.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 22 2016, 02:52 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2016, 02:30 PM)
whether stocks or currencies or a country's econmy, they don't strengthen by themselves.

(but they will decay if u do nothing and continue to bleed it systematically.)

so, we look for leading indicators - bursa (local and foreign funds), mgs yields; local industries/banks-developers- retailers well being.
not sure if u r there - in the early 90's, man... u see money everywhere - local, foreign.

everything was booming incl RM at 2.50.

simply pick a counter, it rises 20% in a week.

plenty of smiles, all were happy, some thought they became gods of money.

until 1998.
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Ya man... I remember those times. I was there as well, but as a student. So didnt feel the pinch that bad. My parents were wage earners. Save up their monies and we didnt get the "luxuries" associated with the pre 97 fiasco. They managed to buy a house (which was a good buy) after 97 with some hard saved money and that was it. I still remember my friend who had a brand new 318I in his garage before he got his license. But all went down during 1997 where his family had to sell off most of their cars. Those were the days.
I do agree that our monies will decay if we do nothing and continue to let it bleed. But apparently there is nothing much we can do rather than monitor here and try and trying moving our money around hoping for the best. Most important is, we are not heavily in debt because if we were, we would be worrying about how to pay back those debt before thinking of how to invest our money.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 04:04 PM

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Aussie dollar lowered down a bit at 3.278 now.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2016, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2016, 04:59 PM)
Yes,....... thumbsup.gif

If we want to have more Aussies in hand, my strategy is :-

1) I convert direct from my SGD.
2) I convert into USD first from my RM.
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Bro.. mind explaining why we should convert to SGD 1st and then to AUD. Wont we be losing in exchange rates difference by the money changers?

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2016, 07:39 PM)
i think AUD is softening due to softening of commodity prices.

for AUD, i will rather watch RMB rather than USD as china buys a lot of aussie commodities like iron ore.
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We should be expecting AUD to dip a bit lower and for those interested should make their move then.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 22 2016, 11:05 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 23 2016, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(Century1 @ Dec 23 2016, 08:27 AM)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves was unchanged at US$96.4 billion (RM399.7 billion) as at Dec 15, 2016, compared with two weeks earlier.

This is a stupid article. Why done we compare with yesterday?

Even BN governor tries to calm the market by showing increase in reserves in a week.

Last year was US$144billion
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They have to do that to keep the RM stable and the market from crashing. You dont want to warrant unnecessary panic and loss of confidence of both investors local and abroad.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 23 2016, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 23 2016, 09:34 AM)
that is kinda unprofessional. I was appointed by patients to give a report of their condition and health and leave them to digest the results. my work is just that. instead they put their political sentiments first rather than telling the truth.

how would you feel when economic analysts and government officials parade how rosy their country and soon after you invest, you find it that it isn't rosy as it seems and worst still you find it hard to take your money out from capital controls.

I mean for the run of the milk auntie and uncle investors. not us. lol
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While I dont want to go into politics and how the government is run, its really up to oneself to believe what is fed onto you. So... rolleyes.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 24 2016, 01:00 PM

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Christmas eve... The Rm strengtened abit.

AUD $3.265.

USD $4.463.

SGD $3.090

MYR always strengthen a bit during eve and public holidays.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM)
there may already be some indication today.

the weeks old 4.47x barrier's been broken, now at 4.4835.

can't see how it can stay put when yen, RMB, won, SGD are all sliding.

a crawling peg, it is.
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But the Ringgit is still standing still while other currencies are sliding a little bit, with the exception for US Dollar of course. Good sign or temporary relief? unsure.gif

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 28 2016, 10:38 PM)
The other countries are not defending with their reserves. Hence, perhaps the RM can stay put and not slide like the rest !
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Hopefully, but then again maybe its high time to change to the 'sliding' currencies? AUD is really attractive now at 3.243. rolleyes.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM)
Yeah,... AUD is good now,... but only if we have use for AUD in the immediate future, will we change to the AUD now to mitigate the forex risks against this currency that we needed now.

Otherwise, since the USD is targetted to appreciate against ALL currencies in future, wouldn't it be logical to change over into the USD as an interim currency for now ? Then the moment we have use for, say, the AUD sometime in future, then we convert from the USDs in our hands into the AUD,.... good move ?
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But the USD is at 4.48 now... sweat.gif Not sure if its a good move to enter now.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 06:40 PM)
In bold,.. that's what I thought too,... DT is not even officially onboard yet ! Wait till Jan 20, Friday, when he sits there officially,.. BUT : if he changes his policy totally from what he promised to do earlier, then the USD will weaken back !!!!!!!!!  brows.gif

Then there is also the probability that everything has been priced in already by now.
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Quite true to that. But IMO DT has to implement what he mentioned. If not he would be called a Liar and I dont think that is what he wants on his first term as President. laugh.gif To weaken the USD, we must hope for some failed implementation or strategies by DT. But knowing DT is a businessman with acute business knowledge and experience, I wouldnt put my money there.


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM)
that is surely one way to look at it. just like when RM was 4.0, all has been priced in. tongue.gif

but i think besides trump major actions (with china, mexico, whatever) if any, a lot will hinge on how the market will view fed's "several hikes coming" talk. many don't believe it will do that in 2017, so, that is NOT fully priced in. it's a continuous game, very fluid.
i look at BNM, bloomberg and XE.com data.

do u not see it has "graduated" from 4.47x to 4.48x in the last few days?

i also noticed that the korean won has dived a lot more while the RM stayed good.

so, think about a winter holiday in seoul soon. laugh.gif
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Thats a pretty good idea. Korean Ramen now anyone? Nah.. im more inclined towards the Aussie dollar besides SGD. I think it would be a much safer bet. 'Angmoh' money ma.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 29 2016, 09:41 PM)
Tq AV,.. bbgoat and Tomer fro your good insights and opinions,... I don't know what else to comment upon,... so much uncertainties now.

Think I'll just continue converting out my RM !
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Mind sharing which currency u are going for? tongue.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 29 2016, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 PM)
user posted image

Like the gomen said; myr is not the worst performer in 2016.
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Like K's would love to say... Cukurlah...

Damn... those are third world countries or underdeveloped countries. How can compare with Malaysia? laugh.gif
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2016, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 29 2016, 11:51 PM)
You expect to compare with developed countries?
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Compare with Indonesia, Thailand and similar countries. You just want to feel good then go ahead.

QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 30 2016, 08:36 AM)
when your gomen has to compare itself with the worse, brace yourself.
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To make themselves look good. What else?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2016, 08:58 AM

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