Yeah,... I think xpmm has a point there,... But there is no hurry to convert, right ?? Since our central bank is going to hold this rate and defend the MYR, we can convert anytime, as long as they have the power to defend the currency,....

Going back to the points in the above,... I discovered the following :-

I calculated if I am to use the current exchange rates to convert directly from the RM into the AUD, compared against if I am to convert from the RM into the USD first, then after that into the AUD at about the same time, I will spend RM10 less for RM100 to buy the same amount of AUD worth of conversions.

Hence, yes, I believed the actual value f the RM right now is actually more that 4.47,... perhaps even touching as high as RM5 per USD. But because of help from our central bank, we can 'enjoy' a lower USD. Yeah,.........

....... I await further comments,........

I think the exporters are no more enjoying themselves as they used to after BNM forced them to convert 75% of their proceeds back to the RM !

I believed nobody would want to convert into 'a lot of a currency' that CONTINUES TO WEAKEN !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 18 2016, 12:52 AM

Hmm,... I tend to disagree somewhat,.. for myself, even though I am making a lot from the margin, but if what I made MUST BE converted into something that will lose its value slowly, I will still hesitate.

Bro,... for myself, I think it's great that AV can furnish us news. He put in great effort to find and post. I wouldn't ask more of him if he is not ready to comment. The great thing abt this thread is we all scour and post what we find from the net.

Bro,... pls help me to confirm,... I discovered an arbitrage opportunity here ! AUD will be weakening these 2 to 3 days, but after it 're-strengthened', pls allocate a few minutes to help me cfm,...

Tq for helping to confirm, bro,.. maybe PM if you wished to.

Following all these, the next catalyst would be when President Trump starts work on Friday, January 20th.. Hence, effects will be seen on the following Monday, January 23rd..

Morn bro,...

May not weaken too much against the RM, but noticeable effects against the SGD and the USD. The Parliamentary Mid-Year Review is today, and S&P is watching too. The review is expected to show negative news, and S&P will see. IF S&P lowers credit rating,... then got chance to buy the Aussie,...... But may not lower !!

Frankly,... if BNM keeps sending more and more of her foreign reserves to defend and still the USD keep hammering,... what happens ??

Exporters must convert 75% back to MYR, that's the first step.

Second step ?

Surely cannot be just continue to defend until NO MORE reserves, right ?

In that case, we better buy up all the USDs that we can before the fund mgrs come back after their Christmas and New Year holidays and start selling down the RM again. Hopefully, during this period the RM can take the opportunity to strengthen a bit ??

The way I look at it is I am earning the RM in my everyday operational activities. Hence, the RM comes in 'continuously'. When I convert out, I am actually diversifying my currency holdings.

Even if the RM strengthens later, I will continue to get the RM into my hands from my everyday activities.

Yes,.......

If we want to have more Aussies in hand, my strategy is :-

1) I convert direct from my SGD.
2) I convert into USD first from my RM.

BUT : LOOK AT THE ALL ORDINARIES AND THE S&P/ASX 200 !! THEY HAVE BEEN RISING AND RISING IN THE LAST 10 DAYS WHEN MANY OTHER INDICES ARE FALLING.

Why is this ??

For myself,.. I carry the conviction that my primary motivation would be to find a currency into which I can invest with, and to make more of that currency with,... IF I can find investment instruments which are good with that currency, then that currency would be in my radar.

After that, I will evaluate if that currency is favourable in the longer term, ie, if it will depreciate later on (eg the SGD because of a weakening economy or the MAS lowering the band), or the currency having a possibility of being pushed down due to excessive stimulus (eg the USD).

Frankly, even if I think the currency may have chances of weakening in the short term, but over the longer term, it is still promising, and THERE ARE GOOD INVESTMENT ONSTRUMENTS I CAN INVEST INTO WITH THAT CURRENCY, I will still go for it.

Eventually, the money we make from the investments will offset whatever near term weaknesses from the currency,...

An interpretation would be the moment there is capital flight back to The US, most of the sellouts are against the Ringgit compared against the other Asian currencies.

Another interpretation would be most of the loans held inside Msia are by foreigners.

Bursa selloff and bonds selloff would both constitute capital flight out !

Funds are being reallocated to other EMs, then this means even if there has not been such a big event as DT winning the US Elections, you mean the RM would still drop this low as it is today ? Somehow I can't fully-agree, because I noticed the main drop of the RM came after the elections.

The end of easy money, you mean ?? Now the waves will start to hit us, and the world over ??

Good opinions there, bro,....

Probably, to each his own,... but for myself, the impt questions are :-

1) how long will the RM weaken vs the other major currencies, and how far will it drop before it stabilizes ? This is with the assumption that the BNM can continue to defend the RM.
2) what will BNM do next to 'defend' the currency, eg, will it stop our funds from moving out freely ?

Frankly,... with the current condition of this country, what sort of increase in interest rate will attract investors back here ?? I don't think 25 bps will be enough,..