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 FundSuperMart v16 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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river.sand
post Oct 25 2016, 08:16 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Oct 25 2016, 11:55 AM)
I noticed some of the forumers here are making the same mistake that I made. At the beginning of this year everyone was cursing Ponzi 2 - not performing-lah, lau sai-lah, etc. Some of us switched out or trimmed down on Ponzi 2. I switched out 50% of my investment in Ponzi 2 and then increased it again a few months ago.

Now suddenly Ponzi 2 is the darling again. Everyone is gung ho about it.

In the long run, we will pay the PRICE for doing this. If you are in your 20's and early 30's, I think it is still OK. I assume the investment amount will not be huge and you will have time to rectify your mistake later on (with another investment horizon of 20 years).

But for mature investors in their 40's and 50's, they could be entering into danger zone if they keep switching in and out to look for the latest "hot" fund. This is because they don't have the luxury of time.

Ok, you can now start cursing me for being a party pooper.  biggrin.gif
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Pink Spider has always been advocating passive asset allocation strategy.
Now he is proven right wub.gif
river.sand
post Oct 26 2016, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Oct 26 2016, 01:21 PM)
REITs normal return is generally single digit. The last 12 months is simply extraordinary. I didn't think it's reasonable to expect double digit in mid-long term basis
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Calendar year returns for AmAsia from 2012 to 2015 were:
26.47%, 0.64%, 15.53%, 13.16%

I think this was fueled by property revaluation.
Moving forward, if the nations in which a REIT fund has investments announce rate cuts, it could boost the NAV.
river.sand
post Oct 27 2016, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Oct 26 2016, 11:19 PM)
I tried doing it but the policy has two situations. one is cash value and another is death which has two different values altogether then there's their different riders and each rider has different dividend....oh wait... that sounds exactly like our excel sheet!

oh lol. got you.
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Bro, do us a favor...
Find out the premium of a term plan with similar death coverage. It should be cheaper than an investment-link plan.

Let's say the premium is P, so the money saved is:
474.75 - P

Now, assume your gf invests this amount (474.75 - P) in UTF. What would be the value of her investment when she is 75 - assuming various IRR.

Please put all these in a post as I want to take a screen shot...

Edit:
Term is until your kids are independent.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Oct 27 2016, 11:52 AM
river.sand
post Oct 27 2016, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Oct 27 2016, 10:45 AM)
So we have a new nick. Mamak Fund?
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 27 2016, 10:46 AM)
Jangan, nanti orang cakap kitorang racist laugh.gif
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I propose:
Bollywood Fund tongue.gif
river.sand
post Oct 29 2016, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 28 2016, 11:48 PM)
The one which overlaps with KGF is just TNB. KGF only holding 3.35%. The rest all different. So I don't think it overlap much. Also IF EPF and KGF are holding the same stocks, how come EPF is not able to generate the same performance as KGF?
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Even for the same stocks, EPF and KGF are likely to buy at different prices.
river.sand
post Oct 29 2016, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(kswee @ Oct 29 2016, 07:07 PM)
What Fund invest in education and universities?
Fast food processing?
chemical plant or any associate with chemical?
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If you want to be so specific, better buy stocks.
river.sand
post Nov 1 2016, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Oct 31 2016, 11:35 PM)
Yup, lukenn sent me the site
Glad to see that people here can benefit from it. To me the best feature is they have ALL funds in Malaysia. Morningstar doesn't have the investment linked funds

What do they get out of it? That was my first question too. Seem too nice to have a free site to offer such comprehensive data right? We speculate data mining. But who knows
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Sorry, what site are you talking about?

river.sand
post Nov 1 2016, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(kazekage_09 @ Nov 1 2016, 09:34 AM)
Ermm pardon guys for my noob question.

Many of you seem invest in 5-6 different funds. I understand it for diversification to minimise risk right?

So is this means those who just invest in only 1-2 funds (those who invest under utc mainly) will not make full of their investment? Is diversification the only way to go in UT?

Because many of person I knew withdraw their epf to invest in UT. Ranging from 10k to 50k.
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For Muslims who insist on Syariah-compliant funds, unfortunately there aren't many options.

And then there are people who are worried that epf will go bankrupt. To them, any UTF is better than epf. They just want to withdraw as much savings as possible.
river.sand
post Nov 3 2016, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Nov 3 2016, 12:13 PM)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/am...t-a7392711.html

Global markets in 'early stages of panic' after poll gives Donald Trump lead

how the US presidential election does effect global  economy.
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Brexit 2.0 hmm.gif

river.sand
post Nov 8 2016, 05:36 PM

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Attached is an insurance policy with savings plan, which I got from somewhere.

The annual premium is 1800, of which 1200 goes into the savings plan.
Note that at the end of Year-16, cash value in the Investment Unit Account will be paid to the policy holder.

You guys may want to compute the IRR for this policy, either based on total premium or just the savings portion.



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
river.sand
post Nov 8 2016, 08:29 PM

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QUOTE(adele123 @ Nov 8 2016, 07:59 PM)
IRR 3.50%. Please note that this is an insurance product, charges are deducted for insurance coverage and not all insurance plan are the same.

IRR river sand

do i get paid?
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If we compute using just the premium allocated for the savings portion, i.e. 1,200 (corresponding cash values are in the Investment Unit Account column), the IRR will be something like 5.x%.
river.sand
post Nov 9 2016, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 9 2016, 03:01 PM)
It's the policies that trump will implement that is worrying not the election itself.
For eg:- just slapping 20% import tax on goods from china would probably kill off most of the china based funds.
And it is harder to predict now with trump.
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And China will retaliate sweat.gif
river.sand
post Nov 16 2016, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Nov 16 2016, 03:38 PM)
I do not agree with PM style of buying 100% EQ funds all the way just to maximise potential returns. So sorry, no recommendations from me using that method.

The acceptable way to me
1. set asset allocations strategy that includes both bond and equity; different geographical segment
2. purchase on DCA method or VCA method
3. Annual rebalancing if significantly deviate, if small deviation, adjust through future purchases
Okok.... I take the cynism and sarcasm back.
Risk management is a very important part of investment, or even life in general. It's very not tolerable to say risk does not matter, to me at least
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Risk is relative...

For a serial entrepreneur who has started businesses many times, failed many times, but is now enjoying success, risk from UT investment is nothing.

For another person who earns 20k per month who plans to open an account for his two children, starting from 1k each; the purpose is to teach them investment, profit is secondary; again risk is not a major concern.

For a third person who has done proper asset allocation (fixed income, equity funds, stocks, properties), who now plans to invest some of her year-end bonus in an equity fund; investment horizon is 20 years; risk of a particular fund is also not a major concern.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 16 2016, 05:21 PM
river.sand
post Nov 18 2016, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Nov 17 2016, 10:11 PM)
it's on libra site.

yesterday she went up slightly.

lastest NAV showed she puked.

the party is not over, the USD/MYR guys in the other thread there will be another round of chronic fever until fed hike and over
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Fed hike is expected, so this is already reflected in price.
More like Trump factors.
river.sand
post Nov 18 2016, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Nov 18 2016, 04:17 PM)
If kimyee73 structured his VCA like mine, based on this:
https://www.amazon.com/Value-Averaging-Stra...s/dp/0470049774

then no way "value cost averaging and cost averaging is too costly" coz it is only using one's planned allocated funds and/or abnormal profits (kept aside after selling)

nah - bogglehead's comparison of it vs DCA and stuff
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Value_averaging

er.. U are in the retail financial industry right (based on your signature)?
haven't read / compared this approach before?
just curious - no offence intended ya - i just assume that professionals would be "wider read"  notworthy.gif
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Wong Sifu,
ayam noob about VCA. What is your personal experience with it? Does it work better than DCA.

It looks like VCA is based on the assumption that the price of certain security fluctuates within a range.

(A) This assumption is not correct for stocks. Some stocks' prices keep going up.

(B) For a UTF, fund manager indeed keeps the price within certain range by means of distribution. After distribution, price drops, so we invest more?
river.sand
post Nov 20 2016, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Nov 20 2016, 11:13 AM)
Your answer is incorrect. Do you want to try again?

Perhaps others who are studying for the CFA exam would like to try?

Xuzen
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There are many ways to do valuation. None is perfect.

(1) compare current PE to historic average
e.g. current PE is 15, historic average is 18 => undervalued

(2) compare PE to growth rate (G)
PE/G < 1 => undervalued
PE/G > 1 => overvalued

(3) For individual stocks, Discounted Cash Flow Analysis is often used.

(4) For REITs, Dividend Yield is sometimes used.

Whatever the case is, bear in mind that a fund is different from the market. Some fund managers are bargain hunter, and like to pick cheap stocks.

P/S
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


river.sand
post Nov 20 2016, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(wonglokat @ Nov 20 2016, 04:30 PM)
whether it's manyak panai tipu or manyak panai teka so long as it makes sense statistically.
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QUOTE
8.24% , means, 60% chance of +/- 8.24% around a mid point.

as of YTD, it has increased 11.53%. 3 year average is 19.52%.
The way I understand it is....

Mid point = 19.52%

Current is 11.53%

Current < Mid Point.

60% chance of it will rebound up?


This is how I understand it... I might be wrong.

If Std-Dev is 8.24%, and mean is 19.52%:
That means there is 68% chance that the return will fluctuate between mean+/-Std-Dev,
i.e.
68% chance from 11.28% to 27.76%
16% chance less than 11.28%
16% chance more than 27.76%

user posted image

But... this is just statistics.
If you toss a coin, the probability of head/tail is 50/50.
However, it is possible that you get head 3 times in a row.

Similarly, in the example above, it may be possible that you get less than 11.28% return 3 years in a row.

river.sand
post Nov 22 2016, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Nov 22 2016, 09:57 AM)
Stupid Sammo Hung tried to intervene in the market mad.gif
Never learn from China? China imposed restrictions on stock market last year, ended up market dropped even more.
river.sand
post Nov 27 2016, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(ironman16 @ Nov 27 2016, 12:03 AM)
i know this is not the right place to ask/post, but this is the only place that i know many Sifu can help me.

My wife just get proposed a saving plan,

1.  every year pay RM 9000 for the first 5 year(at the beginning of the year), after 5 year not need to pay the premium any more.
2.  for this first 5 year, every year she can get RM 1300/year (at the end of the year).
3.  starting 6th until 19th year, she can get RM 1700/ year.
4.  at the end of year 20th, my wife can get guranteed maturity RM 22000 + non guranteed RM 11190 = RM 33190

my question is : how to calculate the IRR for this saving plan? rclxub.gif
any sifu here can help me, pls.    icon_question.gif

**sorry, i dont know how to attach the excel file/ picture.
   already try many times
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You can't attach Excel file. Try take a screenshot and attach it here.

I am going out in a while, so I don't have time to do work out the IRR for you now.
Anyway, a few tips:
- use IRR formula
- cash outflow is negative; cash inflow is positive; compute the net cash flow of each year
- first year premium is considered Year 0
- end of year 1 is beginning of year 2
- if Excel returns error, try change the guess value


There are several scenarios to consider:
1. include the non-guaranteed return
2. exclude the non-guaranteed return
3. If your wife really needs insurance coverage, then find out the premium of a term plan with similar coverage (let's say S); deduct this amount from the RM9000 of the proposed plan (i.e. 9000-S); use this amount as the cash outflow

This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 27 2016, 08:34 AM
river.sand
post Nov 27 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(ironman16 @ Nov 27 2016, 01:36 PM)
like this ?

[attachmentid=8145681]
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Yes

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