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 USD/MYR v4

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Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 6 2016, 09:53 AM)
Yes. We know that (money changer being the cheapest). The question is what other "ways" are consider cheap?
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Bro,... I like your spirit,.. thumbsup.gif step-by-step,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 6 2016, 09:44 AM)
both excellent comments! biggrin.gif

some think achieving 15% over 2 years or 7.5% pa is silly.

some think that is a winner.

due to very varied expectations, experience and risks taking.

the fact that the FD thread is now v14 and is one of the most popular threads in LYN say something, doesn't it?

and currently, 4% pa attracts a lot of people, incl me!
i oversimplified the real example case when i said "15% over 2 years".

the money wasn't kept under the pillow. i don't keep cash idle, nobody should.

it was put in sgreits, earned another 11% in dividends in 2 years, no cap gains.

so, total was 26% in 2 years or 13% pa.

now, that's certainly ok, no?! tongue.gif
essence of the story - those who took action to protect their life savings with major fx denominated but low-mid risks methods in the last few years achieved good results.

question is will it continue? that, with this 2 yr old thread into v4, u hv to make yr own mind or come back here only to read in a couple of years.
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Yes,.. bro,... thumbsup.gif

To yr final statement,.. there will be risks everywhere,.. one must have a good tactic for his risk/reward ratio. A good method along this tactic is diversification. Diversify your assets, diversify your currency holdings, diversify source of income,....
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 6 2016, 09:59 AM)
good question.  one that I actually wanted to do.

say I open up a fundsupermart account in Singapore so I can have access to SG REIT.

option 1
I am able to open a bank account in ocbc Singapore that ties into my fsm SG account (very impossible now a days to open a bank account) so I go through money exchangers in Malaysia to switch myr to SG

option 2
i open a maybank foreign account do I convert through the bank?

option 3
Telegraphic transfer
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Emm,... let's see,... I too groped in the dark many years ago. Today,.. I would do it this way,...

I would open a DBS MCA Account - STILL CAN OPEN. SEE MY PRINCE'S POSTING IN THE 'SGX COUNTERS' THREAD.

I would change my currency into the SGD (or USD, or whatever else) at Mid-Valley after booking my rates there.

I would arrange for holidays to Singapore with family-members. I would handcarry the SGD to Sgp since I'm going there for holidays anyway with family members, relatives and friends. Please remember to follow the Customs regulation : Not more than USD10K per person per trip. Don't break rules, bro,...

I would bank-in the excess SGD notes into my MCA which I have not used in my holidays in Sgp..

But that's just me,... since I go to Sgp regularly,...

Otherwise, you need to TT,... But TT'ing is killing because of the exchange rate imposed by the banks..
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 6 2016, 10:29 AM)
I see. So you are still using the money changer route. Guess I will need to make a trip there once year.

Actually you can get your family to carry your money too. One person USD10k, 4 people USD40k already. whistling.gif
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smile.gif Pls don't give bad ideas, bro,... biggrin.gif someone will come along and call out yr allegations !!!!!!!! biggrin.gif

Err,... no other way if you are onshore !!! If you are offshore,... ahem,... other ways exist !!!!!!!!!!

BUT; frankly, end of the day, if the RM is weak, we will definitely feel the loss in purchasing power too, ESPECIALLY when it comes to purchasing power overseas.

We can choose to wait, but what if the RM drops further later on ? Or,.. well,.. suddenly more difficult to transfer out ?? Sure, others might say no such thing,.. but I can say what I think also,...

So,.. if you think the asset prices in,.. say,.. Sgp,.. are good now for you to go in,... just convert lar and move on. Go buy those assets. There will be risks here and there,..
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 6 2016, 10:02 AM)
I fell hopeless with current MYR value...any chances it will go to under RM3.8 in near day?
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 6 2016, 10:37 AM)
No chance to to under 3.80
But there's some very slim chance of 4.00 - 4.20 range blush.gif
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Well,... BNM is doing her best now for the USD.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...egara-reserves/

But the effects will only be known later : "While the initiatives are a step in the right direction to boost the flagging ringgit, dealers said the impact would only be known in the next few weeks."

So,.. maybe RM will strengthen in two or three weeks' time. But then,... comes rate hike, maybe,... sad.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 10:57 AM

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Guys,.. ir you're going after the USD, still have hopes because BNM is on your side.

If you're going after the. say, SGD or AUD,.. probably no hope,... my opinoins,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 6 2016, 11:06 AM)
aug 2016, we were discussing below.

very heated, plenty of skeptism, many hopefuls.

today, results overshot.

but ex rate is a dynamic thing, will keep finding the right spot with global financial gravity as the months and years go by.

and given actual ex rates now, my bet is on BNM to RAISE rates in the next few months.
do read up interest rate parity! tongue.gif
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I'm hoping they will raise interest rates asap, bro,.... thumbsup.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 6 2016, 11:19 AM)
rates come down and my house loan tak gerak. 

rates go up immediately get letter from bank.

shit
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 6 2016, 11:26 AM)
Better don't..
More shit will happen..
More interest payment for loans doh.gif
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Sorry, guys,... just said that out of instincts,.. hoping the MYR will strengthen after interest rate rise. But then again,.. THIS TIME, the MYR may not strengthen too after rate rise !!!!!!! sad.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(mujinkun @ Dec 6 2016, 11:46 AM)
two or more week tooo slow...need some drrastic action from Bank Negara...
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 11:55 AM)
BNM new measures set to boost ringgit: Analysts
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/194775/...t-boost-ringgit

As usual, every analysts xpect sentiment towards MYR will improve
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thumbsup.gif Yes, Sirs,... as a taxpayer, I'm also demanding drastic actions from our central bank,...

But : sad.gif nothing is happening to our RM till now,.. after two days,.. only hearing lots of theories, from analysts and from forummer too,... so how ??? Better convert now if can't wait if you have plans for your converted currency, but that's just me,... ohmy.gif Pls think of your plans,...

Or,... wait for another few weeks, no choice,..... err, small chances to strengthen, okay ?? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 6 2016, 12:04 PM
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 12:03 PM)
Wat wud happen to MYR when BNM announce lower intl reserves @ 30/11 on 7/12  hmm.gif
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You are making me want to change over everything this minute, bro,.... sad.gif ....

Added : Or maybe,... if, say, analysts predict would drop to one level, and if the drop is not so drastic, meaning the drop stops at a higher level, then the RM might strengthen,... thumbsup.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 6 2016, 12:16 PM
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:05 PM)
i have been selling usd buying myr since oct till now...guess i'm swimming solo here.
(my usd holding was from the 3.x period)
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You have been making money, bro,... Smart that you bought earlier,... Congrats,.... thumbsup.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:20 PM)
Diversification is long time championed by me.
It is just I highlighted there are avenue locally, or RM denominated that one can hedge upon RM weakness as well, not necessary must convert
Eg.
Invest in Carlsberg Malaysia, one has exposure to SGD.
Invest in Ytlreit, one has exposure to Aud.
Invest in glove company, one has exposure to USD.
Money put in local bank gold saving account in RM, one has exposure to USD (set aside the gold price fluctuation issue)

I never say one shouldn't invest abroad nor I am championing RM.

In fact I like SG reit and SG banking stock very much at current point. 

This is what I am highlighting about, not to say RM asset is better than others nor to say shouldn't convert.  smile.gif

The fact is those stocks does hedge us against RM weakness and protecting our purchasing power in the process as well.
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I just read through and browsed across,... okay,...

Anybody wants to learn Aussie dividend shares ???? biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

AUD is set to move soon,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:54 PM)
No 1997 is not enough to overcome the structural issue in our economic policy. We need a Greece crisis where unemployment goes up to 25%. Only then we can see changes
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Yeah,... maybe needed something as severe as that, man,.......... sad.gif sad.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM)
How about invest in AUD via UT in M'sia  hmm.gif
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Bro,... you/re famous, I just saw over at the ASNB thread that our new forummer called you Mr William,... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM)
How about invest in AUD via UT in M'sia  hmm.gif
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This one I didn't study,... The nearest to this would be my exposure in high-yield bond funds denominated in the AUD,... invested in fund houses in Sgp.. I do directly into the country itself,....


Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:48 PM)
Ok, since every individual has their own portfolio, why not we compare the Index so we get a general idea which is better RM stock vs Forex stock. Comparing the Index will take away the peaks and dips and show a typical portfolio.

We use KLCI, STI and DJIA to compare 1 year and 5 year return :

1 year high low :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1624.97 = -2.81%
STI 2876.03 / 2943.05 = 2.33%
DJI 17730.51 / 19216.24 = 8.38%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.4485

Based on the above historical numbers, if we invest RM100k in KLCI 1 year ago, 1 year later (yesterday), the market value is RM97,187.20. The return is a loss of -2.81%

If we converted the RM100k 1 year ago into SGD, we will get S$33,298.92. We invest in STI and 1 year later yesterday, the market value is S$34,074.89. We convert back to RM at 3.1231, we will get RM106,419.28, or a return of 6.42% in RM term

We do the same for USD and invest in DJIA. The return is 14.38% in RM term
For 5 year high low :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1624.97 = 11.29%
STI 2694.60 / 2943.05 = 9.22%
DJIA 12184.26 / 19216.24 = 57.71%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.4485

The returns are :

KLCI 11.29%
STI 40.12% in RM term
DJIA 122.90% in RM term
The numbers speak for themselves.
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Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ?? biggrin.gif rclxms.gif

I have just two inputs :-

1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ?

2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies.
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM)
If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary.

Aud interest rate is at historically low.
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:56 PM)
M surprise to c Oz banks up int rate but RBA maintain rates  rclxub.gif
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Yeah,... I noticed something ;ike what Will said too,... though the RBA stays put, there are some banks inside Aus that up their interest rates. I believe these are early signs that the RBA may hike soon. The RBA stayed put this afternoon,...

Yes,.. AUD FD rates are at historic low,... that's why investors inside Australia are now looking hard for yield instruments,........their SMSF funds are not helping much now,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 04:55 PM

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biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 6 2016, 05:19 PM)
Yeah........but Aus interest rates are so so low........  sad.gif
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Since bank interest rates are low, the elderly folks, and the yield investors would be flocking to yield counters, right ?

Secondly, I suspect interest rates are going to rise soon,... and with A-REIT prices still at a low since 2 months ago, it would be good to flow along with the A-REITs and yield counters as they improve,..

..opinions,..bros,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 6 2016, 05:46 PM)
i thought when interest rates rise, REITs tend to tank?
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Yes, bro,... BUT,.. it also depends on the quality of the REIT. Err,.. I will look at the following metrics of the REIT. I am applying across the principles from the SGX,.. First, assuming the rate rise starts to take place from early next year, then,...

1) The Interest Coverage Ratio of the REIT, the higher the figure, the better, in terms of x times of the interest to be paid out.

2) The Weighted Average Debt Ratio (WADR) of the REIT.

3) The Weighted Average Debt-to-Expiry (WADE), the longer from now, the better it will be.

If the above three metrics are acceptable, then the REIT would be able to withstand an interest rate rise environment.

I saw many of the Aussie REITs and yield counters have at least two of the above metrics being acceptable. The ones who don't have been bought over by the ones that do.

What have you heard ?

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