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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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icemanfx
post Jun 15 2017, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jun 15 2017, 08:32 AM)
And I thought June is supposedly a good month of oil. This year is an exception, what a shame.

Luckily sold off my USO call options. This is really gone case.  shakehead.gif
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If commodity price is as predictable, there won't be poor people around.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 15 2017, 02:44 PM
icemanfx
post Jun 20 2017, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 20 2017, 02:54 AM)
There are bad and good news.

Bad - low energy prices = energy companies earnings will be also depressed. So, may not be a good time to
own them at this time. The lower it goes, more smaller companies may go into debt because operation cost is going to be
greater than what they can make from pumping oil.  Smaller producer countries that depend on Oil revenue will see major setback.
We'll see another re-play scenario when a bottle of mineral water is more expensive than oil.
Good  news - as consumer, we should be getting cheap petrol if the world market is flush with abundant oil.  biggrin.gif
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The aggregate economy depends on consumers spending; the higher the consumers disposable income, the better for the aggregate economy. on oil companies, it is their turn to take the humble pie until oil demand exceed supply in a few years time.




icemanfx
post Jun 21 2017, 01:43 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jun 20 2017, 11:58 PM)
wow. crude might dip < 43 anytime. this time lets see what arab guys will say. i read somewhere the US shale producers can produce at usd16 a barrel!!!
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A few years ago, opec pushed oil price above $100, many users were forced to use alternative or become more efficient and resulted in lower demand. then opec pushed the oil price down to below $40, shale oil producer become more efficient and lower cost.

classic case of what goes around comes around.

icemanfx
post Jun 24 2017, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jun 24 2017, 01:05 AM)
BREAKING: US oil rigs rise for record 23rd straight week to 758, Baker Hughes says
but still getting good support at $43.
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From ordering to production and inclusion into oil rig count could take over 4 months. One could expect oil rig count continue to rise for sometime even after oil price dipped below break even point.

Given OPEC inability to dictate oil price, some of it's members are likely to increase oil production sooner than expected.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 24 2017, 09:03 AM
icemanfx
post Jul 2 2017, 12:46 AM

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Given the amount m.e sovereign wealth funds have liquidated recently, expect they will next increase oil production.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 2 2017, 01:00 AM
icemanfx
post Jul 2 2017, 09:31 PM

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U.S. exports in the first three months of 2017 exceeded those of five of the 14 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...of-opec-members

Wonder how long OPEC will resist to recapture lost market share.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 2 2017, 09:32 PM
icemanfx
post Jul 6 2017, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(Meisterstuck @ Jul 6 2017, 01:35 PM)
can someone explain what had happen this few days in the US stock market? Was it just a big correction (induced by sell offfs in tech sector), or potential beginning of a bear market?
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In the short term, the market is on random walk; no explanation could be given.

money could be made as well loss in the tech sector. those tracking tech sector may give a better answer.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 6 2017, 02:22 PM
icemanfx
post Jul 7 2017, 03:05 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2017, 10:54 PM)
Oil is at $45.. still in ok range here (between $40..$50) for year long.
But the general market is about to fall off.

Gold drops back below $1200 due to all is calm but the rhetoric of war escalation
may likely spike this thing back up.

I think the bears will come again very soon.
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A non stop charging bull will likely die prematurely from exhaustion or heart failure. Taking a break from time to time will extend it's endurance. Many traders and fund managers will soon go on their summer holidays.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 7 2017, 06:47 AM
icemanfx
post Jul 11 2017, 06:24 PM

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ore-supply-does

Newton's 3rd law of motion in work again. OPEC will continue to suffer for their exorbitant price of a few years ago. If oil companies forecast pan out, there will be opportunities in many sectors.

icemanfx
post Jul 13 2017, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 13 2017, 04:25 AM)
bull bull bull....2017 whole year bull?  laugh.gif
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It depending on which data to read.

Please bare in mind, the market is on random walk in the short term.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 13 2017, 07:48 PM
icemanfx
post Jul 28 2017, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 28 2017, 01:16 AM)
sharp fall, especially nasdaq....correction coming?
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More like quarterly earning below expectations.

icemanfx
post Aug 4 2017, 05:09 PM

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Nearly half of America has no money invested in the stock market, according to the Federal Reserve. And the rich are far more likely to own stocks than middle or working-class families, surveys show.

Eighty-nine percent of families with incomes over $100,000 have at least some money in the stock market compared to just 21 percent of households earning $30,000 or less, a recent Gallup survey found.

“Lot of people in America tragically aren’t participating in the stock market,” says Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, a financial advisory firm that works mainly with “Main Street” America.

Many ordinary investors are still sitting in the sidelines, missing out on one of the longest-running bull markets in American history because they are still scared from the financial crisis, McMillan added. Stock ownership before 2008 was 62 percent, Gallup found. Even after recent inflows, only 54 percent of Americans are invested now.

Most ordinary investors who are in the markets invest through mutual funds, retirement plans or 529 college-savings plans. According to a 2016 paper by the Tax Policy Center, only 25 percent of Americans owned individual stocks in 2015.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/busines...m=.2a8979c12216

Why and how the rich is getting richer. When peasants or herd join in will be the time to sell.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 4 2017, 05:12 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 5 2017, 07:28 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 5 2017, 12:08 AM)
How to evaluate Tesla's valuation? Anyone?
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Understand many funds bought tsla because they were convinced by Elon musk salesmanship and made $ millions along the way.

Tsla price correction will comes when results is below expectations. To keep price high and attract more buying, expect Elon musk to cook up more and bigger ideas.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 5 2017, 09:39 AM
icemanfx
post Aug 6 2017, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(theozis @ Aug 5 2017, 02:11 PM)
Some US companies still popular and hot pick among US investors because of they are US company. They are betting on their future performance, not the current one...
AMZN, NFLX, TSLA are those companies with high PE some even -PE ... surprisingly, the first two are members of FANG.

other than TSLA, perhaps can have a look on BYDDF
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Basically it is easier for new start up in the u.s to pitch for u.s funds, and funding available in the u.s is a few order of magnitude more than elsewhere.

Evaluation method on new start up is different from traditional companies. Most new start up investment is not opened to retail investors.

icemanfx
post Aug 19 2017, 12:26 PM

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Major stock indexes are at their lowest levels since early July as investors respond to tensions between the United States and North Korea, two terrorist attacks in Spain on Thursday and mounting challenges to the Trump agenda of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and reduced regulation. But the market has not had a severe reaction to all that news. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is only 2.2 percent below its record high earlier this month.

“There is a tremendous amount of optimism that is supporting the market even in the face of extraordinary stress,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/business...onster=dealbook


Now, the Fed is confronting “the coexistence of low inflation and low unemployment,” a phenomenon that inverts the “stagflation” experience of the 1970s, when both inflation and unemployment climbed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/business...onster=dealbook

Folks, the writing is on the wall.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 19 2017, 12:35 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 23 2017, 12:11 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 22 2017, 11:22 PM)
The bull is not ready to die yet.
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From what illness?


icemanfx
post Aug 23 2017, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 23 2017, 12:34 PM)
Trump illness. He NATO.
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If the bull is healthy, trump nato is unlikely a life threatening illness.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 23 2017, 04:17 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 26 2017, 11:26 PM

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With the American stock market already up more than 300 percent since March 2009, including dividends, these are pertinent questions.

If you realize that you can’t afford to risk any losses, he said, you shouldn’t be investing in stocks at all and this is a great time to sell. It’s as simple as that.

The classic advice for long-term buy-and-hold investing assumes that you will be emotionally capable of sticking with your holdings for the long term, and not panic and sell inopportunely when the market falls. In real-world downturns, however, many people desperately want to sell stocks, or suddenly realize that they must sell, because they need the cash.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/business...pe=sectionfront



icemanfx
post Aug 27 2017, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Aug 27 2017, 10:40 AM)
Good reading on buy and hold long term strategy.
Should put more focus on analyzing emotion, that trigger the good  decision making and action..e.g couple on investment strategy.
Husband(analyst) doing portfolio analysis, feedback to wife(finance controller), to buy / sell at what price, units, discount, premium, pe ratio, debts, core business ..etc. 2 ways comm. and opinions shared.. Will be great if one of spouse is in financial/ economy background. But got cons side, on relationship, family,  matters need to separate from investment strategy + decision. I 'm in high influence during stocks analyzing with few friends during Lehman Bro, AIG news outbreaks, managed to buy few stocks like AIG, Citigroup, LVS, BZH during Nov 2008 - April 2009. Unfortunately my friends were in greedy emotion, made them selling their portfolios when reaching certain % profit... within few days, they found hard to buy back as stocks gradually uptrend till today. Why hard to buy again? Units  X currency exchange rates and getting lesser units, or look after others penny stocks which, very slow gain..

During my trip to USA in June, during townhall session, I managed to ask one question to one of the SnP CEO, on acquisition of small/ medium company to grow up company business, as own stock price was at all time record high.. Answer = do not pay premium price on acquisition, and suffer pay high cost which may takes very long period to break even, which also may bring down cash flow, or stock price value.
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Unfortunately, most peasants believe they could beat the market, sway by market herd sentiment, looking for immediate gain and have limited access to unbiased news and insight reports.

icemanfx
post Aug 28 2017, 11:13 PM

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Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke recently directed the Bureau of Land Management to ramp up sales of oil and gas leases on federal land. He wants leases sold at least every 90 days and drilling permits processed in 30 days, a procedure that, with proper environmental reviews, requires substantially more time. Mr. Zinke is doing this in the name of the Trump initiative for “U.S. energy dominance.”

Global oil and gas supplies are so abundant that these fuels are being produced on less than half of the approximately 27 million acres of public lands under lease to energy companies. Through the 2015 fiscal year, a record 7,950 drilling permits on federal leases were not being used. And last year, the industry bid on less than one-third of the federal acreage offered for lease by the B.L.M., even though the industry identified most of the lands auctioned for energy exploration. What’s not sold can be bought by energy developers at bargain-basement prices — $2 an acre for the next two years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/...eft-region&_r=0

Oil price is likely to stay depressed for extended period of time.

Wonder why petronas is not exploring this U.S option?



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