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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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icemanfx
post Mar 11 2023, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 10 2023, 10:47 PM)
Seemed like buying the dip is no longer a thing.

Cycle is changing.
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Not all price drop is a dip. Fundamentals needs to remain to call a dip.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 11 2023, 08:01 AM
icemanfx
post Mar 11 2023, 10:54 PM

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A major cryptocurrency operated by Circle Internet Financial Ltd. meant to mimic the value of the U.S. dollar dropped sharply after the company said it had $3.3 billion tied up in the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank.

USD Coin fell below 87 cents on Saturday morning, according to data from CoinDesk. The virtual currency, known as a stablecoin, is designed to trade exactly at $1. It is backed by real U.S. dollars and short-term government debt, and sits at the heart of cryptocurrency trading.

https://www.wsj.com/

A collateral damage. who else is rug pulled by svb?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 11 2023, 11:01 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 12 2023, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 10 2023, 10:47 PM)
Seemed like buying the dip is no longer a thing.

Cycle is changing.
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 11 2023, 10:47 AM)
Haha... Will they ever, ever learn?

Buying the dip or deep (and of course average down) was a misaligned strategy made brilliantly smart and successful during the past incredible bull run.

Many times a stock crashes for very valid fundamental reason... but in a long bill run, how many really care?
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During price uptrend, buy the dip make sense but not otherwise.

This may be obvious but still trapped many.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 12 2023, 02:47 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 13 2023, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Mar 13 2023, 11:34 AM)
Not possible as business as usual
No more bank runs when FDIC take over quickly 🤦‍♀️
Told you weeks before on that when next week meeting hinges on 3 things 🤦‍♀️
Are you crazy? 🤦‍♀️ There is no guarantee that will work and you just kill the entire global economy as every global hinges on the USD

Even NZ and Australia start raising rates earlier and yet inflation is at 7% range 🤦‍♀️

If you are the Fed voting member the entire world will start world war 3 🤦‍♀️
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Monetary policy take a few months to see the effect.
icemanfx
post Mar 14 2023, 05:54 AM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Mar 14 2023, 12:36 AM)
IF the FED pauses, that'd be GREAT for stocks and bonds, no doubt! But I find it hard to believe that the FED is willing to give up on its fight on inflation when it's still well above 6% YoY and the labor market / economy continues to stay resilient
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Inflation is a bigger devil than svb bankruptcy. It is easier and cheaper to pay for banks depositors.
icemanfx
post Mar 14 2023, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 14 2023, 06:04 AM)
Then 20 smaller banks may tank.  laugh.gif
And gold will hit $2,500  laugh.gif
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These small banks are regional, unlikely is systemic risks.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 14 2023, 07:35 AM)
Paying the bank depositors means buying the back the bank bonds i.e. QE which leads to inflation.
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From left pocket to right pocket, us Fed has nothing to loss. Svb shareholders take the liability.
icemanfx
post Mar 15 2023, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(giftfre @ Mar 15 2023, 08:57 AM)
I believe SVB and Signature Bank are not the only two bank in the hardship situation. There are many medium size financial/ investment company may be can't hold on any longer. The main concern is how many of them in same situation. No one know but only can wait them to declare.
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No bank could sustain 20% deposit withdrawal within a few days. svb, signature and silvergate are deeply involved with crypto, more banks will likely to terminate relationship with crypto.

icemanfx
post Mar 16 2023, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 16 2023, 05:57 AM)
Guess what? The shoplot auditor strikes once more...  (twice more?)

https://wap.business-standard.com/article/i...31600027_1.html
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svb and signature bank didn't "held to maturity" of us fed bonds was the cause of losses. it was basically failed in risks management.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 16 2023, 10:55 AM
icemanfx
post Mar 16 2023, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 16 2023, 09:15 AM)
And here comes the EU crash protection team.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/credit-suis...ional-bank.html
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Given a series of missteps by credit suisse, credit suisse is unlikely to survive in current form.

icemanfx
post Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Mar 16 2023, 11:04 AM)
Their investment arm has dragged them to the mud with all the missteps back to a decade ago 🤦‍♀️

Share price is back at the levels since early 2000s
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Exiting investment business is almost unavoidable.

icemanfx
post Mar 16 2023, 08:33 PM

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A write down by SoftBank will likely have profound effect on the market.
icemanfx
post Mar 17 2023, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2023, 08:58 AM)
What interesting times ....

rates hike, bank bailouts, banks bailing out other banks, market down, market up, QE .... all in one day

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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The world economy is ever more intertwining and the market react ever faster than before. since 2008, us fed is more willing to use tools outside the box.

with fewer fiat banks willing to take deposit from crypto, stablecoin may face liquidity squeeze.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 17 2023, 10:41 AM
icemanfx
post Mar 18 2023, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Mar 18 2023, 08:52 AM)
UBS in talks to acquire CS.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ub...-ft-2023-03-17/

This weekend will be pretty important for Credit Suisse.
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cs domestic division will likely remain independent. given saudi is a major shareholder, ubs buyout will be selective.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 18 2023, 10:03 AM)
Fed is trapped now.

But i think they will still raise 25bps just for show.
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svb turmoil is largely contained and inflation is the bigger devil.

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 18 2023, 10:40 AM)
The section on buybacks.

Ah... the US Shale oil. Record profits but more crucially the oil companies are now not willing to put the profits into capital expenditure... instead ... they are giving away the profits away in form of dividends and share buybacks.

Of course ... most of its shareholders won't disagree.... they are in it for the CASH!!!
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oil price is cyclic, recent oil price is sustained by saudi production cut and ukraine war, and ev is replacing combustion engine car. oil major expect oil price to lower in the long term.
icemanfx
post Mar 18 2023, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Mar 18 2023, 04:52 PM)
Likely SNB will force UBS to takeover consumer banking for CS while investment banking stays at CS

UBS wouldn’t want to hold bag of losses of CS
Even Biden now is at odds with Powell on raising rates 🤦‍♀️
Yes by tampering demand on big ticket items like cars and plane tickets

Food prices are now not determined by commodities but actual pass through cost from production to actual delivery costs to consumers which has to be multiple pass through hence every level now is inflated too many times 🤦‍♀️
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All gomen don't like high interest rate. For reasons, why central bank need to be independent else inflation rate risk out of control.
icemanfx
post Mar 25 2023, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 24 2023, 08:09 PM)
And not forgetting MaGa. biggrin.gif

Create a financial crisis and recession, just to battle inflation?

MaGa for the win! SCREW the world.

LOL!
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US fed is mandated by the u.s congress to keep inflation rate low. there is little tools available to rein in inflation.

current price of crypto imply there is still plenty of liquidity floating around.
icemanfx
post Mar 25 2023, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 25 2023, 02:10 PM)
They can try things like reduce govt spending

Or maybe push for less conflict?

But I guess these are impossible
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Unless facing crisis, no gomen will reduce gomen expenditure.

it is every head of gomen's duty to protect the national interest. supporting democracy like ukraine, taiwan, philippines, malaysia, korea, etc against adversary is us, eu, anz and japan national interest.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 25 2023, 04:51 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 26 2023, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Mar 25 2023, 06:37 PM)
Not possible with the current govt 🤦‍♀️

They will just spend to protect their interests and remember why they are pushing for conflicts because American govt is broke now hence they are pushing for conflicts and arms abroad by extracting more money from their Allies in NATO+ in order for their war machine and their defence contractors funded by them ranging from missiles to submarines
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The objective of NATO is to deter USSR and Warsaw pact. It is Russia aggression that pushed previously neutral Sweden and Finland to join NATO. It is NATO countries interest to support Ukraine.

U.s is one of the few countries in the world that could benefit from war effort. Hence, u.s is not hesitate to engage in or support war against adversary. For certain, u.s gomen is not broke. U.s fed qe showed, u.s could literally print any amount USD it's desire.

Russia GDP is about the size of Italy or California. Russia resources will likely deplete faster than the u.s. and e.u.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 26 2023, 02:49 AM
icemanfx
post Mar 26 2023, 02:26 AM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Mar 26 2023, 02:16 AM)
US is broke as they will never be able to repay the debt 🤦‍♀️

The only thing they have is the war and money printing machine hence will make use of it whenever is possible

The war only benefits those private contractors who manufacture the war machine hence USA will force the conflict and when is done they will take advantage later to get Ukraine to repay as to why they started sanctions on Russian offshore assets to make use of it while leaving pity excess to Ukraine 🤦‍♀️

Btw California is the 5th largest economy behind Germany and ahead of India while Russia is ninth ahead just slightly of Italy
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As long as gop doesn't screw up, u.s could print as much USD as it's want.

Weapons manufacturers like any industry employ workers, pay tax and contribute to GDP. U.s spent $2.3 trillion on war in Afghanistan; could spend trillion $ to wear down Russia.

If history is precedent, Russia will likely pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 26 2023, 12:43 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 5 2023, 02:37 AM

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Oil demand drop mean the world economy is poorer than expected and high oil price reduce consumers spending. the vicious cycle may carry on until mbs realize high oil price is detrimental to his economic transformation and investment.

icemanfx
post Apr 5 2023, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 5 2023, 08:43 AM)
8. Yeah, but despite that reasoning, Tesla defied logic and soared by more than 60%. LOL!
icon_rolleyes.gif
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Minions view tsla as tech company rather than car company.

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