Hmm.. I think KLCI hits 52weeks low just about a week ago. That's actually lower than Oct though.
It has bounced back approx 2.5% since then.

It could be window dressing but then again, stocks then to bounce when they hit the 52weeks low where
buyer are waiting but it didn't mean it will go back all the way again.. maybe a re-test will be coming or could just be dead-cat bounce if there's more selling pressure when it gets back halfway there where sellers are willing to dump again.

Hey guys,

Christmas eve, SP500 closes 2351, it's down 20% now from the top. Officially bears territory.

Hey guys!

Huge snapback rally tonight... Dow up 1000 pts.
Santa Claus bull was late but he finally came but still gots lots of head room to move the needle back to the mean.

Let's see if there's any follow up given today is the first big one.

Let's BUY BUY BUY again!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 27 2018, 07:56 AM

Perhaps the "Plunge Protection Team" stepped in..

Yeah..he briefly talk about that on Christmas day because he was all alone in WH, 'coz US govt still shutdown
because he didn't get the funding he wants for the border wall. Still waiting for Congress to put something on the table for him to sign and he gets what he wants. Damn stubborn..

If he keeps quiet and didn't say or tweet anything, market goes up (like Dec 26).
But, if he gets itchy fingers and start yapping how bad about Feds or China/TradesWar will escalate,...
market will start tanking..

Ok guys, AAPL got whacked badly due to poor guidance.... 52 weeks low now, with -10% from yesterday close.
Time to watch for opportunity and play a bit already.

Hey guys!

The market has finally retraced 50% from the lows from Dec 24 demise (20% drop from high in 2018) when it
dips over to the bear territory. You can see we got a V shape recovery back to where it last dropped off the support.
The support now become resistance, and it's still chopping thru the supply after one week of hanging around here.
Very thin volume but it is creeping up to test that resistance area and it is showing signs of melting up here.

The question here, will it continues upwards or roll back down to re-test the lows (another flush)?

Lots of worries and scary headlines that could dampen investors sentiments - slow down in china, trade war issues, interest rates hike again and yet-to surface the true cost to the economy during the US Govt shutdown these past 26 days.

Also, on the positive side, if there's no recession in 2019, US companies continues to turn in stellar earnings despite all the noises.. another possible 10-15% upside for SP500 (from Jan 2 closing price).

Whether you're bull or bear..SP500 2600-2650 level is a major resistance level here to watch here.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 18 2019, 02:15 AM

Well, it's been 10 years since we've the last recession.. maybe it's time again.


Don't be scare.. market goes up and down. if you're not a trader, long term holders of good quality stocks always win out - eg. Buffett, Munger, Templeton and Bogle (RIP).

Technically, a recession is two quarters of negative growth.

So far, I have not seen any evidence of recession in US other than we have
some slow down in growth and corporate America still bring in record profits quarter over quarter and year over year but no negative growth. The projection for entire 2019 is 2.3-2.5 from 3% for 2018.
We have yet to get the real 2018 4th quarter report, it will be delayed due to US Govt shutdown but I don't think it will be bad. Yes, interest rates have gone up 1 full pts in 2018 but it still historically low, the US fed may just bump up another 50bps for 2019 only.

Recently AAPL and other retailers have reported slower earnings growth but retailers are continuing to evolve from brick and mortal to online and virtual market but still selling stuff.
Look, AAPL projected they'll make 84 billion instead of 89-93 billions for upcoming Q1 but it isn't any negative numbers. That's still BILLIONS and that's 1/4 of Malaysia entire GDP for the year.

A lot of the SP500 companies will continue to make adjustments depending on customer demands, eg. hiring less, reduce prices, and more innovation. Unemployment in US is really low now, and some companies have having difficulty in hiring.

Yes, on the global front, we got the trade war going on now, brexit and other worries but the govt will likely come to their senses and won't tank the economy. Yes, it was overheated (like the housing in China), we've seen China been raising their RDR rates but now with slowdown, they're pumping money back into the market.

Overall, I think the market will continue to play the music for this year, maybe more mellow songs instead of
rock and roll.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 19 2019, 02:00 AM

Well, not to say there won't be any black swan event, but the chances are low.

Also, the central banks are also watching the market but eventho they're not suppose to, they
suppose to watch economy.. unemployment rates, inflation/consumption and adjust the rates.

If the central bank raises rates too fast, (like the US Fed), they got scolding (like Trump blasting US Fed Chairman).
It's crazy.. never happen before but I guess US President also cares very much about his investments.

China banks also got into the game. They lower their RR and then pump more money into the market.
This is Fed manipulation also.. so, we need to heed the mantra - "don't fight the Feds".

This trade war thingy will get resolved. I think Trump just wants more money and benefits and when he
out of the office later, the policies he installed later will surely continue to benefit his businesses and family.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 19 2019, 03:09 AM

NVDA feels like AAPL after the disappointing earnings and guidance. Let's watch for AAPL tonight.

I think XLNX could be a better play because of potential expanding 5G space.
Also, watch for MU too..(they're expecting to report on March 20).

If AAPL disappoints, it could bring down the broader market.. eg. the DIA,SPY,QQQ

Time to load up if it revisit the Dec low.

Sorry, I dunno him but if he's teaching you valuable lessons about trading, it maybe worth it to learn the skills.

Once you master FA and TA, you will still need to develop a (YOUR OWN) plan for success and figure out what works and what doesn't.
There is no guarantee but it's matter of managing risks and how you can navigate thru the ups and downs of the market.

One thing that I've learned over the years, you must keep your emotions in check, and NEVER let GREED get in.
Remember, Bulls/Bears win, but Pigs get slaughtered.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 1 2019, 04:44 AM

AAPL clears the hurdle.
FB crushes estimates.
AMZN also beats..

I think we got all clear now .. also the Fed says "patience" when it comes to rates hike this year. So, likely, may not be
in this quarter. So, all signals to go higher again by end of March.

Heads up! SEMI conductors stocks (SMH) are on fire! Above that 200ma line!
NVDA recovered and keeps going higher and it will likely get back to where it was after the bad earnings.

I think it's a minor pull back here. Trend is up from early Jan. Buyers coming back in.

Update:
NVDA reports came in. They beat the lowered estimates and also issued positive guidance.
All systems going north now!

I think Trump could be luring the bulls in for the kill...market will continue to creep higher with this teaser.

He just did.. just to admit he wins and delivered his promises
but if the oppositions file lawsuits and win, he'll blame the court later for not granting him power to divert funds and he'll say
"well, I tried.. but the Democrats refuses our beautiful wall"

IMO, market will continue to creep upwards... nothing will change unless the Fed come out and say... "aha, time to up the interest rate".
then we go down again.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 16 2019, 04:08 AM

The gap to 153 yet to be filled.. I need it to come down a bit more.

I think the market will likely reach another all time high before the next downturn, there is a FOMO going on now.. that's why it is creeping up daily.

Also, Fed Powell got scolding from Trump early January.. he's keeping quiet now about interest rate eventho the committee may feel it should raise it this year. Inflation also creeping up already..we can see from energy price moving up again. Once oil gets above $60, we can see other consumer prices will go up regardless of tariff.