Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages < 1 2 3 4 5 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

views
     
markedestiny
post Feb 25 2020, 10:03 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Feb 24 2020, 08:07 PM)
These two sites do a good job in explaining some of the basics

When I started with options they helped a lot.
If you are looking for videos then TD Ameritrade has a good education section
The demo account worked when trying to access the videos.

Market slowly pricing two rate cuts and the PBOC continues their stimulus that has lead to the Shanghai Composite to be barely down even today
*
Many thanks for the reference, I will read and digest. thumbsup.gif

Yes, the US market was red and risk off as the reality of the impacts of the virus start to sink in (otherwise to them, it's just another 'flu') But what 'flu' will cause disruptions to global supply chains, travel bans, lockdowns, social isolation etc ?

Btw, I read earlier that Fed plans to taper off QE by Q2, but I think they might continue to pump given the market situation now. Let's see..




markedestiny
post Feb 25 2020, 05:23 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 25 2020, 12:51 PM)
To add to the sharing above:
1. The more FEAR in the markets, the HIGHER the premiums U can get as a seller,
eg if I sold a 50 day contract 150 strike price on MMM last week, can get $6.00 (*100 units per contract)
VS
if i sold the same expiry & strike price contract yesterday, i can get $8.00 (*100 units per contract)

2. Usually, the more days to expiry (DTE), the higher the premium U can get as a seller.

3. Premiums are NOT taxable on NRA (Non Residential Aliens) VS dividends are taxed 30%, thus collecting premium may be more worthwhile in addition to getting dividends IF the stock is PUT/ASSIGNED to U - usually when market price < strike price sold.

Damooncake's method seems similar to mine coz we sell PUTs on stocks we want to collect anyway, at strike prices we want to pay anyway.
Thus, U need to be able to "pickup" the stocks (U need enough capital) if your option contracts are ASSIGNED. THen turn around and SELL CALLs at prices U are OK to sell the stock for smile.gif

i'm getting itchy now heheh - MMM, XOM, CVX even SPY & NOBL
*
Hi thanks to you and damooncake for pointing this out to me, my eyes are open abit now shocking.gif and I am starting to get ideas on the possibilities but still got more to learn biggrin.gif

Anyway US Futures for for the 3 key indexes are turning green after the sell off yesterday, so do proceed with caution.

markedestiny
post Feb 26 2020, 11:36 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Feb 26 2020, 12:22 AM)
Yeah
They have already said they are reducing their repo operations for next month but I am still watching the balance sheet.

The FED balance sheet hasn't moved much since the start of the year after their mega run from October. They update it only once a week unfortunately.
*
It's by Q2, so most prob April rather than next month March, maybe end March hmm.gif .. they are likely to continue, not sure we'll see.

I don't monitor the Fed balance sheet as long as I know they pump. But as soon as you got news they are thinking of stopping or abrupt news that they stop, I'd plan my risks ahead accordingly, would not wait for them to update their web.

That said, given the coronavirus wrecking havoc and creating disruptions globally, I dont think the CBs (Fed, BoJ, PBOC, ECB etc) can contain this black swan event by pumping the market.

CBs can't stop the supply chains disruption, can't stop unemployment, can't stop the exponential spread of virus, etc.

With so much expectation of 'V' shape recovery, I think we could be lucky to see a 'U' shape recovery by the end of this year, otherwise an 'L 'or an 'I' in the longer horizon...hopefully not blink.gif



markedestiny
post Feb 28 2020, 09:53 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
S&P 500 falling to level at Sept 2019 when Fed first started QE4..
markedestiny
post Feb 28 2020, 11:13 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 28 2020, 11:05 PM)
Wow... SPY almost 15% discount from last week close. I was only expecting 10%-12% discount.
280 better hold.. last chance. 

Next week, lots of calls to sell. sweat.gif
*
My options trading got approved few days ago...I don't dare to try yet biggrin.gif


markedestiny
post Mar 3 2020, 04:17 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
The market's reaction could be a dead cat bounce? devil.gif

Edit to add comment; IMO most investors throw caution to the winds and conditioned to expect quick recovery with the ease of liquidity and tools deployed by CBs coming to the rescue every now and then...

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Mar 3 2020, 04:20 PM
markedestiny
post Mar 3 2020, 07:58 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 3 2020, 05:46 PM)
Liquidity provided and low interest rate by central banks could spur demand but has little impact on supply chain interruption or supply shortage.
*
Yes, the CBs are taking over the role of WHO to address the spread of the virus so that we don't have supply and demand interruptions...

Edit typo

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Mar 3 2020, 07:58 PM
markedestiny
post Mar 4 2020, 09:17 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 4 2020, 08:37 AM)
I still think it's a good buy now. But depends what company you buy.
Companies like Apple will use their spare cash and the cheap debt to do buybacks especially when the share price is low. When things get better, their EPS will be significantly higher pushing the share up even further.
*
Buybacks? One of the problems post-GFC which caused the high valuation of most stocks in US.

Companies which do buybacks are not returning actual growth revenue to the investors when they should really put their profit gain to good use such R&D to develop innovative new products/services.

Instead, they buy back their own stock and own their own share, can't imagine the situation where the majority shareholder is themselves biggrin.gif

It's somewhat similar to what the BOJ is doing...BOJ is the 'proud' owner of more than 40% companies and more than 70% of ETFs in Japan shakehead.gif Guess what happen when the economy goes south?


markedestiny
post Mar 4 2020, 10:03 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 4 2020, 09:43 AM)
Not unlike GLC in this country, syok sendiri.
*
cool2.gif


Meanwhile insiders sell off their shares when the stock price get jacked up. You invested your hard earned monies, insiders divested for their gains...see below

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...ll-their-stocks





markedestiny
post Mar 4 2020, 10:14 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 4 2020, 10:04 AM)
I see this repeated many times on investing forums and in the news. This statement is only partially true and is a shallow way of thinking how CEOs and CFOs manage their company. This is a topic on working capital management. We as shareholders do not know what is going on in the company and we leave it to the management to make decisions. I'll try to explain with an example.

Firstly, let's say Apple has $10 billion cash from profits sitting in their bank account giving 1.5% interest p.a.
Of course they are actively looking for investments. However, if there are no good investments why invest?
E.g. Apple feel they cannot expand organically at the moment but may be open to acquisitions in future.

Now when shareholders invest in Apple, they want a return greater than the risk free rate of course.
Why invest in Apple just to get 1.5% p.a.?  biggrin.gif So Apple's cost of equity is definitely higher.

Rather than leaving this cash in the bank at 1.5% interest p.a., Apple can distribute this $10 billion back to shareholders either in dividends or share buybacks.
Dividends are not as attractive as share buybacks because dividends are taxed higher that capital gains tax in US.
Therefore, they perform buybacks instead while there tax rates are low.

This is the best time for US companies to perform buybacks because Trump lowered the corporate taxes since he is in office and debt financing is very cheap.
I don't quite understand what you're trying to say here. When you are a shareholder, you are the shareholder. There is nothing wrong with being minority or majority here because share buybacks does not favour one party. When share price goes up because of buybacks, both benefit. It's not like minority shareholders get a lower share price.

In case you didn't know, shares bought back by the company are owned by all shareholders. It's not like majority gets to own the shares. Minority owns them too.
Everyone owns a portion according to % of ownership in the company.
Also, these shares are cancelled or can be redistributed back to all shareholders in future.
Bank of Japan is not the company. When they buy shares, it is not a buy back but an investment/contractionary monetary policy via open market operations.
Why it's not a buyback? Because these shares are not cancelled. Meaning the number of shares outstanding remains the same and thus EPS and DPS remains the same given the same level of profit.
Growth using acquisition is one possible way of reinvesting profits but what if there are no good companies to acquire now?
You cannot simply buy over companies just because you have cash. Even worse if you make the wrong decision (i.e. acquire a terrible company just for the sake of acquiring).

Also, there are many variables involved. You cannot simply acquire just because you feel like it.
Let's say Apple has the cash to buy over McDonalds. But why? Does McDonalds fit Apple? Does Apple know how to run a fast food restaurant? No.
Wrong acquisitions may have serious consequences especially when there is a corporate culture mismatch.
*
Not offence but it's nothing personal. I'm not convinced but it's ok...different thoughts and opinions in investments. smile.gif
markedestiny
post Mar 5 2020, 11:44 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
Will this rate cutting follow its previous trend or this time it's different?


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
markedestiny
post Mar 5 2020, 10:08 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
Here we go again, red... biggrin.gif
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 12:33 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
With Russia inflicting max damage to the US economy, we can expect blood bath this week.
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 09:53 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 9 2020, 12:38 AM)
I wonder if a 20% drop is possible. hmm.gif  hmm.gif
*
Accumulative 20% drop from the previous high is very possible, but 20% single day drop not so much...but we'll see as can't tell now given the higher volatilities in the market now
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 10:43 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 9 2020, 10:28 AM)
What I meant is 20% drop from yesterday price over say 1 month period possible?
*
IMO possible, as u know the oil plunged 30% and gap down already...contagion effect of 20% for equities over 1 month is possible if we assess what is happening now....to name a few

-black swan > demand and supply shocks happening at the same time

-US-China trade war > don't think it will resolve so easily, DT is indeed looking at the US stock performance as his 'report card' as POTUS, if you notice he pokes lesser at China now that the market already down. He can't afford to poke further biggrin.gif

-EU in 'recession' ok maybe we should use in 'recession technically' tongue.gif , also BREXIT issues

-pump up by CBs especially Fed and PBOC don't seem to work, if you look at their respective market indice level which still drop to level before the pump-up...foreseen more drastic stimulus from CBs in the coming weeks to rescue the market...but let's see and monitor if these help.
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 11:34 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
OK, now that S&P Futures hit CME limit (circuit breaker), S&P could drop drastically when the US market opens ....let's see if we have a single day 20% tongue.gif

As it is a blind spot now, I am just guessing drop of not more than 10% for today US market opening? PPT might intervene to rescue?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...ding-curbs-at-5
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 01:20 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Chengi @ Mar 9 2020, 12:13 PM)
Based on my drawings, S&P currently in wave 3. Wave 3 is usually the strongest wave.
*
You using this with Fibonacci? I really have no idea with the waves thingy as I use selected fav TA tools and that also being use just to time my entrance and exit from the individual stock of concern, or to check for trends.

Anyway, IMO don't have to use TA now to predict the market direction given the current volatilities as it is not forward looking...i might be wrong here as I have basic TA knowledge only. Would you convince me otherwise? smile.gif

I prefer to look at the macros now.
markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 02:59 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Chengi @ Mar 9 2020, 02:39 PM)
I used Elliott Wave and Ichimoku. I don't use Fibonacci because i don't know how to accurately use it.

If you see 12345ABC that is EW. (Recently learning)
If you see lines that is Ichimoku price projection.
Using TA, FA or whatever A is not a problem. The only problem is how accurate is your A.
*
Ok, thanks. Can you post again when wave 3 is reached? Let's see how TA fares (not you but the TA) as predictive tool.

As it is, I prefer macros....I relied on macros when I exited from the US and HK markets to cash position...no TA or FA biggrin.gif

OTOH, when the market is normal, I like to use TA to time my purchase or do market timing for individual stock, not market devil.gif

markedestiny
post Mar 9 2020, 10:18 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
Finally, we are at the threshold ...

markedestiny
post Mar 10 2020, 09:40 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Junior Member
764 posts

Joined: May 2018
QUOTE(Chengi @ Mar 10 2020, 01:24 AM)
ES

H4 Before: https://www.tradingview.com/x/VqZdVToc/
H4 After / Future Projection: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WEXhCpvO/
H1 After / Future Projection: https://www.tradingview.com/x/193XvtdN/
H1 09/03/2020 10.30AM Future Projection: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qZVsr8w9/
      My opinion is to touch 2673.75 and bounce

H1 10/03/2020 1.20AM Current https://www.tradingview.com/x/DMxd6mMn/
Note:
**9/3/20: Each line is the support or resistance mainly for the stated TF. Newly added line will be in Red before changing to Blue (after) since someone asked
*
Wave 3 completed ?


9 Pages < 1 2 3 4 5 > » Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.4857sec    1.79    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 18th December 2025 - 11:30 AM