I see another bounce off the 44.5x level here.. perhaps double bottom??

OPEC prefers higher oil price....

Yeah.. of course they do but I don't think they went in buy back their oil like that just to support the market from collapsing below that number.

All they need to do is just to say the words 'cut production', and this Oil market will rally to the moon.

Perhaps do not even need to act on it.. just say 'maybe we're thinking about cutting back xx', the bulls will jump back in as if it will definitely happen.

You know why? It is just like how in early part of this year, when OPEC and Russians were planning to talk about "freezing" production at the current level (not even cut.. just maintain only) but the talks collapsed with no agreement. Oil rallied from the lows of $26 till this level with no confirmation on what they actually did or did not do.

So far, in reality NONE of them has any production cut at all... how the heck did the market even justify the price at this level, right? All talk only, but the bulls got very excited already.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 14 2016, 04:59 AM

Haha! Very true. Bulls just cannot take it to see oil too low.
In fact, for any business, if cost higher than market price, the business will die naturally.
On oil, it's tricky since it's actually a "must-have" business that the world needs it everyday. Now strangely, those business is making loss, and demand is below supply. In theory, this cannot last for long. Either they are able to bring cost down tremendously so that back to profit making, or the business will still die essentially (but, they can't! tricky!)
Therefore, "invisible force" will continue pushing bulls ahead no matter how.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 14 2016, 05:53 AM

Oil price since the last few years (since its sky rocketing move in the 2000's) behave more like stock market, instead based on real/actual commodities transaction.

There are plenty pure speculators investment in the market, who long/short the market, without real interest in the oil delivery/supply that causing wide swing to top and bottom.

really, that has been happening for sure. only that the bulls NEED to push it higher all the time.

every small mere "cut talk" from opec will stir up a rally.

every temp outage - fire or strike or fighting will light up a rally.

once a while, iea says something nice - rally again.

when iran or saudi ramps up production, or new oil fields come onstream, not so much talk.



china can't buy/stock more; excess crude on floaters is now at 7 year high.

now, there is a part 2 - gasoline and diesel are now overflowing from the refiners too.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/13/this-part-o...ng-for-oil.html

i would stay bear:bull in the ratio 3:1.

battle of 45 continues....

Agree with all the sayings here. Each time when i expect crude to dip below 45, 44 then 42, i will see my screen flashing msg like ' oil rallies due to ...'. Ut sinply doesnt make sense but thise opec, saudis n production disruptions would surface to DEFEND crude prices. Coincidence? Man-made? Will crude crash 1 day when reality sets in?
Ignoring all the facts, just by looking at cryde charts, its a bullish commodity! Hack! Omg.
Me speechless

dow futures +90.

fresh record highs coming!



crude... will try to rally, again - "strong summer consumption", "technical rebound"...!!

Wall Street set to bounce

wti 45.3x. +1.3%

still fighting on defending the 45 line....

i think it will go below 45 later.

dwti already.

Cash out XLE here at 69.50.. just another lucky catch.. will wait to see if it can attempt to break higher than Tuesday high. Yet again, yesterday was another one of those gap-to-fill play.

Despite oil pulling back to the 45.xxl, I'm surprise how bullish the Oil companies stocks (inside XLE/OIH holdings) has become. They seem to be diverging away from the crude price.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 14 2016, 10:38 PM

xle, oih, slb, xom, chev... all majors oil/energy stocks and etf's holding good after recent run up.

read something about these majors now downsized and trimmed until their cashflows are now superb!

the weaker ones are all under water or have filed chapter 11.

Not sure about superb but better than 6 months ago or perhaps stablized already after so many deferred projects and cost cut backs.

Also, the majors producers inside the XLE holdigns - most have nice dividends higher than the 10 yr yield. So, they're perceived to be safe - meaning the producers will unlikely to cut them despite declining revenue from lower crude price. The institutional investors are buying them on dips and hope for turn around sometimes in the future (probably a few years later).

On the fundamentals, right now, most of these oil producers stocks are not cheap anymore in terms of value, the historical PE was like 16-18 level and now - their PE at is around 25-35 (after the declined revenues for the past few quarters). If earnings continue to slump and cannot catch up.. I think we will see collapse in stock prices again.

a pretty boring session...

dow +13x and not moving anymore.

wti at 45.50, not moving much.

where are the movers and shakers?!

We're waiting for another black swan event.

Here! But patiently (but getting bored n tired) waiting for a huge reversal.

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Jul 15 2016, 12:42 PM

Assuming the industry norm is at 20, these oil producers r very expensive + high risk of lower crude prices n thus declining earnings to follow, dont seem like goid investment here.
Anyway i dont like to play those oil firms. To me, not the time at all.

about huge reversals, it may have started!?

last major rise:
april-june 2016
35.40->51.40 = +45%

june 2016-now
51.40->45.10 = -12%
to go lower?

with 3x leverage, can gain or lose 36-135% less decay in those periods.




one analyst's latest view on 50ma, 200ma... going 41...?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/14/oil-falls-a...-data-eyed.html

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 15 2016, 03:47 PM