SELL SELL SELL
BUY BUY BUY

Bulls and Bears fighting hard here.

It is very strange. Suppose to be traders buying bonds when they sell equities but they're selling bonds as well,
causing yield to rise. Where are they putting the money? Cash only?

Orange man issued 90 days pause for others EXCEPT China.

Damn.. he wants China kow tow but China won't deal.


Of course. he playing market. We all know this.
His friends/families/cronies already bought the lows on Friday to Tuesday.

If it is anybody else playing this, SEC will come down hard for market manipulation but since
he basically can hire/fire head of SEC, we hear crickets only.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 10 2025, 01:45 AM

It is madness.. or it could be a crooked way to make money.

Some of those MAGAs politicians are using this way to make money (insider trading).
Publicly, they said they support his policy.. behind the scene, they sold equities ahead of time and re-buy again.

There are reports that 2-3 hours before he made announcements, he signaled "Buy" to his MAGA based.
Huge money flows back into the system before the algos took notice.

That 90 days pause is a game that he wants to repeat again just to make more money.

Unfortunately, democratic country doesn't mean cannot be brainwashed. If there's enough lies to blur the people, it becomes the truth to them.
Some of their people (or MAGA supporters) will not come to the senses until everything just collapses in front of them. You may notice Trump always blame the previous administration (eg. Biden... AND including Obama - eventhough he left 8 years ago) for any fault and his supporters will believe him.

Also, their Congress (both House and Senate) are controlled by Republicans and today, US Republicans aren't the same anymore. Right now, they're all are afraid of Trump.

Maybe, if there's enough of people get hurt by his policies, in two years, they will vote to change the Congress demographics.

Yes, it could be.. and that could turn into credit freeze, which is bad if it clogs the financial system - just like the financial crisis in 08, which means everybody suffers regardless where you are.

On the other hand, Trump may also want USD to go down so that it is favorable.
He said other countries are manipulating their currency but he is doing the same.

Notice that Renminbi also drops in response to tariff. The lower the value, the more opportunity for them to sell their stuff elsewhere since US has less imports from China.

Trump next plan - he wants Powell to drop rate and start money printing (QE) again.

Selling covered calls not too bad. Worst case scenario is just base price went above your sold call price
and your common stocks get called away.

But, shorting common stocks are dangerous. Loss can be unlimited if market continues upward.
As traders, just have to cut losses if the loss target are breached.

Yes, unfortunately, his tariffs not done yet. For the next 90 days, things are murky.
Not sure how many negotiations are there..

The main street numbers will be out in about 4-6 weeks time when they realized
everything became so expensive again after all the existing imports are gone and no more shipment coming back in.

Not sure how J.Powell will be able reduce rate if inflation ticks back up.

Ouch! That's horrible.
Hopefully, you guys can come back from this.

Market is not forgiving. Playing options sometimes can be like juggling dynamite especially in a very volatile market.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 18 2025, 03:22 AM

It's will tough one to ride out Mag 7 if tariffs continues. I think TSLA will be hard hit the most with all the protests and boycott against Musk.
The guidance will be the key but it is murky at the moment. On the safe side, I think most will guide down on Q2 even after they've good Q1.

Also, the threat to fire Powell is real.. Market will go to cardiac arrest if happens.

What you all think about TSLA earnings tomorrow?

I'm seeing a lot of bearish views across the traders' sphere.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 23 2025, 02:43 AM

Here we go... bulls mode on again in 10 hours time.

I suspect Trump's greedy friends and the corrupt MAGA politicians bought the dips again on Monday. Then, he reversed course to let them take profit again less than 12 hours ago.

Waiting for the next tweet to tank the market again.

Rinse and Repeat.

It is a lot of pumping. I think it is just a technical bounce.

Their recent Q1 report is a tell tale sign that all is bad news. Q1 EPS sank 40%, revenue fell 9%. Net income is 399mil but they've 595mil govt EV credits. Without this, it will be loss. If this is any other car company, immediately will sink at least 10% cut or more. Investors are excited just because Musk said he will pull back from his govt job to focus back on Tesla. I think damage is done to the brand. A lot of people in US still protesting at Tesla showrooms. Few wants to buy Tesla vehicles for next Q.

He keeps taunting about yet-to-launch Robotaxi that yet to meet any regulatory standard for each state. Also, I'm not sure how many taxi owners can afford this.

Reuters said they will be producing cheaper EV models (stripped down version of model Y) for 2026 but production uncertain due to tariffs.
Looks like their margins are getting slimmer if it is a race to the bottom.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 25 2025, 11:28 PM

Well, the Bulls are losing momentum and stampede is subsiding.

The real economy in US now is going to slow down tremendously due to tariffs, with layoffs and huge cuts in govt spending.
It really hasn't show up the data yet but it will. Q1 seems to be massive imports ahead of the tariffs (hence negative GDP).
Come Q2.. I think it will be ugly if Trump doesn't change his stance because huge drop in exports as other countries
start imposing tariffs on American goods. A lost in consumer confidence is in progress now.

I think the Bears will come back with roaring and slashing away with blood on the streets.

NVDA reports after market close today..

Place your bets!

Wow... better news is the US Trade court blocks Trump sweeping tariffs citing it is illegal!




Market will rip back up!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 29 2025, 10:11 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/29/business/app...p-tariff-ruling

Here we go again. Back and forth.. like playing tennis or badminton. Trump's Tariffs still ON while on appeal. WTF..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 30 2025, 04:52 AM

Why need to offload VOO/QQQM since the divi are so low?

US-T-bills - probably so, 'coz they're considered dividends. Some of them are as high as 5%.
If they want to increase the tax on dividends, heck, even sovereign wealth funds won't want to buy Treasury any more.
Maybe consider US growth equities with cap gains only from now on.

The Big "F**kup" Bill is with the US Senate now.. hoping they'll nix it.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 2 2025, 11:31 PM