Yes you are right however I did not include this minor detail in because I believe for a UTF to hit more than 2 times SD is very remote.

For more nitpicking detail: If you take the more than 2 SD into consideration, the chances of this happening in a three year tracking period is about 55 days i.e., in a 3 years (1,095 days) period you make the observation, the chances of the NAV go outside the band of +70.5% or -59.5% will not be more than 55 days in total.

That means if the fund really go to that level, it will very quickly move back towards the mean.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 17 2016, 10:49 AM

He he he..... spoken like a true non-believer.

Stats are knowledge or tools to assist in decision making.

One may make decision based on past experience, framing of mind, inference etc. But you are still making decision based on your past experience.

Stats is just an additional layer of process of the above by removing the human biasness that are inherent in our mind.

Xuzen

p/s I concur with Howszat; stats is just a tool, don't get too emotionally attached to it.

I'd recommend 1/3 stats (theory know-how); 1/3 experience (meaning you must be an investor yourself and not just an armchair critic who touch FD & ASX FP fund only RAMJADE LOL) and 1/3 being aware of what is happening in the news.

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 17 2016, 11:03 AM

Ku benci akan distribution, buat kacau aje!

Xuzen

I am now down to 40% EQ: 60% FI. Planning to go to 30%EQ : 70% FI.

I am not happy with the risk : reward numbers of equity at the moment.

Please note the above is a tactical retreat... it is not a long term thingy.

Xuzen

Your entry cost is 2% and you make 15% in 2mths; meaning the fund performed +ve 17% in 2 mths.

For those who are into trading / play like this, go online stk trading. Cost per trade (buy - sell) is around 0.20% versus 2% for FSM-UTF. This is a more efficient way to trade / punt.

Xuzen

Eastspring Inv Bond (KWSP-MIS) portion & Libra Asnita Bond (cash).

I seldom talk about FI because it is a boring topic. No point talking about old-lady mah... young hot chicks are the de'regeur!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 25 2016, 02:32 PM

Wah Lau Eh! What happen to US exposed UTF and Global Titan ar? Suddenly on steroid + Viagra again ar?

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 26 2016, 12:32 PM

Which brings me to the point: Investing using UTF is like riding on a nice comfortable Vellfire MPV driven by a professional driver. You sit in it enjoying the ride. In the mean time you can surf the net, play with your Ipad / IPhone etc or play with the kids.

Once in a while you come across a very nice view that flutters your heart a little (S&P naik). Sometime you hit a road bump but it does not hurt you, just a bump. Eventually you will reach your destination.

Xuzen

I wish to recollect what I heard from a CIO of a particular UTMC during a seminar earlier of the year (Qtr1-Yr2016):

Thus as I have heard, that particular CIO said of the geographical region he pays heed to, he thinks the market of East Asia in particular China and Japan are cheap in the sense the PE ratio is in single digit. As for Japan, he said that the stimulus will come from the negative rate which will force more savings into risky assets (equities).

As for US mkt, this I heard from BFM radio that there is a high chance the Fed rate will increase. This means that Yellen is positive of the economic numbers presented of the US market. And this will augur well for the US stock market. Further to this, USD will strengthen and there will be an additional forex gain for us holding US exposure (my own opinion).

As for Europe, the general rule of thumb is, if US do well, Europe will do well. They are highly positively correlated historically (this one is the CIO's opinion).

Right or wrong, the above are all opinions. You make the decision ultimately. As for me, I will continue to expose to all of them in a 40% (US + Developed mkt exposure); 30% (Asia Pac ex Japan) and 30% (Malaysia).

Xuzen

Just be aware of certain bond funds that behave like an equity fund. They give high return but its volatility is almost as high as a equity fund. Generally speaking, bond is to provide stability, not to give you the oommph!

Xuzen

The above is not from Algozen™, it is what I heard from that particular UTMC's CIO.

Algozen™ asset allocation as of Apr 2016 is 25% US (Manulife US), 25% Asia Pac ex-Jp (RHB Asian Income), 30% Malaysia (ESISC) and 20% Develop Mkt (GTF).

BTW you'd notice I have fired the Ponzi 2.0 UTF-FM. That fund now suxs!

Xuzen

p/s But I think the both of them differ not much because we probably use similar type of data and valuate it in a similar fashion (probably from the same academic training).

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 29 2016, 02:30 PM

both are equally good, that is why both I also have exposure to it. I suppose you can DIY GTF by buying into TA Europe and Affin Japan. Manulife USA plus TA Europe plus Affin Japan = DIY CIMB GTF lor!

Xuzen

May the odds ever be in your favour!

Below is my "syiok-sendiri" portfolio aka Algozen's recommended portfolio.

Xuzen.

p/s Looks like it beat the heluva KLCI. NB: The investors desired return is set at 12% p.a.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 2 2016, 10:25 AM


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No particular reason! Just wanna show whose balls are bigger, that's all....

Forex ke, itu ke, ini ke... a win is still a win. Bravo!

Xuzen

Apa yang awak membebel nih? Sejak bila gua hanya beli UTF Uncle Sam aje?

Market up only all wanna tunjuk lagak already!

LOL! Good! Very good!

Xuzen

Fuyuh! Uncle Sam is on 'roid again!

Bro if you don't mind, let me tell you my answer.

I guess most of the gains we are seeing at the moment is due to USD appreciating. Lots of volatility going forward. Strategy remains the same, buy a globally exposed portfolio and go where the volatility is the lowest. Wrt SC, you need to learn the ninja trick from some other sifu, cost I don't pay SC. So my switching around is at zero cost.

My thoughts are as above.

Xuzen

I do not agree with William Bernstein.

Xuzen