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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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prody
post Nov 22 2020, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 20 2020, 05:34 PM)
Ooo pharmaniaga only increased 14%. No wonder share price drop. Only 1.5 cents dividend
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Prices of all vaccine counters could drop any moment as they are all not priced for reality.
prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 20 2020, 05:39 PM)
If wan to reap rewards from gloves, u must be confident, capable of ignoring all the noises, and most important, be patient.

I always like this quote from Buffett, very meaningful and its an absolute truth in stock market:
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You can't keep stock for very long term, no matter how safe they are. You can have a look at a Maybank chart for example.

You especially can't keep a stock and be patient when there is some global crisis.

prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Nov 21 2020, 11:35 PM)
Lol if covid extend for 4 more years we are essentially fucked.
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It will depend on how the country you live in handles it.
prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(Taikor.Taikun @ Nov 22 2020, 12:43 PM)
Not covid extend 4 more years. Read carefully. If the situation prolongs slightly, THE BUSINESS of gloves can extend bull run as many countries r stockpiling gloves.

That is why many countries r going into glove making: Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Thailand...
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Worldwide production capacity will go up while demand is slowing. Glove prices will drop significantly and so will all the glove counters.
prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 22 2020, 06:33 PM)
My outlook for 2023 is that, by then, the covid pandemic will be over.
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I guess most countries will not have a big effect of Covid by next year.
prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:47 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 22 2020, 06:32 PM)
Maybe i modify abit, Lets take Harta. Cause i plan to add them into my portfolio if price is right.

My calculation will be to take their normalized earnings post covid @ PE20 plus 3 years of super profit.

So a simple back enveloped calculation will give me as follow:

Targeted Normalized EPS: 20sen @ 20PE = RM4.00

3 Years of Super profit (RM2.40 EPS)

RM4.00 + 2.40 (Earnings) = RM6.40 <-- Target Buy price

So i guess not a factor of 10. Drop by half from now i will consider to add into as a long position  tongue.gif

Even at 6.40, post normalized earning it is still trading at 30X earnings which is still quite rich in terms of valuations and already consider very good for the business owners.
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Harta is currently one of the most expensive glove stocks.
prody
post Nov 22 2020, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 22 2020, 06:45 PM)
when u make a statement like that, u should say when it will drop and by how much.

and pls provide details/reports/research/evidence to support it.

if not, it's a like a demigod farting.
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I don't have time to check how many countries are setting up how much capacity. Fact is worldwide capacity will increase significantly. You can look at Malaysia alone and see how capacity is added.


prody
post Nov 23 2020, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(funniman @ Nov 22 2020, 08:05 PM)
Important to find out stage of vaccine trials. Some not even phase 1 or 2, sign mou, share prices fly. Pharma, Dpharma, Ahealth, Zuellig Pharma all potential importers. Kanger, Solution, Bintai, all potential distibutors. Some more got cold chain logistics. So many counters, how to invest?
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Most of these counters will never earn a single penny from vaccines. People will need to get out before this is concluded about these counters.
prody
post Nov 23 2020, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Nov 22 2020, 08:48 PM)
Sharing some info for Malaysia glove newcomers capacity (although just a tiny fraction of the big boys gloves, glove market still gets a bit crowded, most of these small ones wont go far)
Goocean - 2b
DGSB - 600m
GPA - 3.6b
Iconic - 3.1b
Cetech - 846m
Salcon - 3b
Vizione - 1.5b
Gets - 4.1b
Luster - 2b
Hongseng - 1.5b
AT - 2.6b
Aspen - 3.5b
Karex - 500m
Mahsing - 3.68b
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Just imagine the type of capacity a country like China could add once they get serious about this.
prody
post Nov 23 2020, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Nov 23 2020, 04:43 PM)
I just dont want to offend anyone here.

I am pretty sure he also just shared his views only, not actually against my comments on glove sectors. We are all living harmoniously here  cheers.gif
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Don't worry about offending people. People get upset very fast these days.
prody
post Nov 23 2020, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 23 2020, 05:06 PM)
Actually i wonder why raw mat supplier dont jack up their asp by 10x tho if that is the case.

Or isit they already did ?

If there are input material constraint isnt that usually bad for the manufacturer ? Unless topglove control the upstream as well.
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There are many suppliers out there. They would have to all work together to increase the price that much. Otherwise nobody will buy from that supplier.
prody
post Nov 24 2020, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Nov 24 2020, 12:14 PM)
PE 1.5k, greed knows no bound. History keeps repeating itself.
People will still sign up for quick to rich scheme no matter how ridiculous it may sound. When they join such a scheme, they should have prepared for this kind of situation.

These are the operators - a certain famous facebook page.
Stock gurus are exactly like property gurus - make money from their followers and eventually bring them to Holland (except the very 1st few early followers, who get to cut profit)

And all the analytical people who advised them not to fall for such schemes will be bashed as naysayers.  sweat.gif
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There are loads of these counters out there. You are basically gambling when you buy them, as they could drop massively at any given time.
Some people like gambling, so I can see why they are being bought.


prody
post Nov 24 2020, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Nov 24 2020, 02:25 PM)
VIVOCOM macam cannot go back up.. burning the intraday players soon
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I played this for 5 mins during opening.
prody
post Nov 24 2020, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Nov 24 2020, 04:07 PM)
It went up to 0.880..

then drop back all the way..
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I was guessing a bigger rebound would happen after the first sell-down. When I noticed the rebound stalling, I got out with 2 sen profit.
prody
post Nov 24 2020, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 24 2020, 04:56 PM)
From the business model of VSTECS and its latest QR. Profit is growing.

It is Malaysia’s largest distributor of ICT products such as notebooks, personal computers, software, servers, smartphones and tablets. It has over 5,000 resellers covering 40 well-known brands.

It also provides value-added product support and technical services; computer maintenance services; network implementation, system integration, Internet solutions, software support, hardware repair and maintenance, and warranty services; and management services, as well as engages in the letting of properties.

VSTECS Berhad distributes its products in the Asia Pacific, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

With the current pandemic and WFH policy, hopefully the profits will continue to grow.

Current PE is 11.44.

Simply Wall Street rates it as +78.15% undervalued. OK, I think that is a bit too much. Maybe +30% upside is more accurate.

My 2 cents as usual.
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You have to be a bit careful with any stock which is suddenly traded much higher than what is normal for it, maybe due to all the new people going into the stock market. This stock's profit and revenue have been relatively stable since 2016. But stock price has suddenly shot up in June this year.

prody
post Nov 24 2020, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 24 2020, 05:13 PM)
No problem. Keeping my fingers crossed.

I notice that a lot of forumers here talk in general or sophisticated terms but nobody shares what he or she is buying. Eh? Why is that?
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I have been buying BAT since during the first MCO. I personally am against smoking but like the high dividend yield and future prospects.
prody
post Nov 25 2020, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 24 2020, 08:53 PM)
I don’t dare to touch BAT. The illicit cigarettes problem will only get worse in this weak economy. How many people can still afford to pay RM17 for a packet of cigarette?

My kopitiam view.
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BAT themselves had introduced a cheaper brand as well called KYO, selling around 11.50 if I remember correctly. Their market share had gone up a bit.
KYO

There were some announcements in the budget which were targeted at the illegal cigarettes.
Budget 2021




prody
post Nov 25 2020, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Nov 25 2020, 11:20 AM)
I’m so frustrated in my recent wrong stock picks!

Miss out on so many gems!

why did I buy serbakd!!
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Serbadk seems to be quite a stable stock to have for your portfolio. Pays out dividends regularly too. Not a bad pick at all.
prody
post Nov 30 2020, 07:13 PM

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Looks like those analyst predicting an EPF selling effect were right. It certainly seems to have a major impact.
prody
post Nov 30 2020, 08:29 PM

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QUOTE(hybr1d3d @ Nov 30 2020, 07:32 PM)
And WTF IS RUBEREX DIRECTORS DOING?!
TIAP TIAP HARI DUMP SHARE, WHY THEY ACT LIKE XOX?
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They are doing the same as what most of us would be doing after the share price has risen high above their holding cost.
Sell and take profit.

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