If you insist on buying... try to buy 7.30 or below.... ( 7 would be better of course )



let me dig out last year posting on it... you would see that nothing much has changed.....

... err ....  the RISK is .... you end up buying a 'good' company but at a lousy price....

and because .... the stock price is not CHEAP .... rm 7,500 for 1,000 shares is not cheap lo....
and it will be an extremely pricey investment if one is not careful with their buying.
for example.... 7.50 buy... 7.00 buy... and then if got 6.50 buy also?
see how the investment suddenly exploded from 7.5k to 21k?

okay but what's most important... what's your personal target/goal from this 'investment' ?

DCA method got few risks.....

1. If the stock for some unfortunate reason goes into a severe downtrend, the DCA becomes a deadly averaging down strategy.

I did a posting on PBBank before. Used old data to back track on the assumption what if I had bought PBBANK on the high and I decided to average down .....

>>>>>>

Ok, how about the case of buying at the wrong price for a good company? Can average down save the bad poor investment?

I will choose PBBank as an example.

1. I won't use the top most price. Just 25.00 will do.
Now for obvious reason, assume I bought PBBank at 25.00.
Now since this is a good 'fundamentally strong' company, I decided to average down la.
PBBank pays dividends also...
surely I won't die cow cow yes?

So the ORIGINAL SIN IS BUY 1000 SHARES OF pbbANK AT 25.00

2. The strategy employed.
Now obviously, since this test is based on back test data, I have to cheat a bit...
The strategy is to buy ONLY 1,000 shares to average down.

Let's be realistic here.
it's 25,000 a pop for the original investment.
any other average down purchases, increases my capital involvement exponentially...
and I cannot cheat myself by saying I have UNLIMITED capital where I can average down forever and ever until I register a gain or recover all my initial losses

(this way, also, I cannot cheat by say i averaged down at the lowest point with more shares, yes?)

so every low of the stock cycle movement, I purchase 1,000 shares to average down.

Fair?
Ok, here we go... (* I yet to count atm honestly... just writing as I go)

The chart and the average points...



ORIGINAL SIN 25,000
May 2019 22,480
Oct 2019 19,080
Dec 2019 18,800
Feb 2020 17,700
Mar 2020 12,600
May 2020 15,200
Jun 2020 16,200

total purchases = 8,000 shares
total invested = 147,060

* time to reflect here ..

from 1,000 shares => 8,000 shares
from 25,000 => 147,060

What did the average down strategy just did?
The investment grew exponentially!!!



Average cost = 147,080 / 8 = 18.38
PBBank reference price at today's opening is 17.00 (today PBBank closed at 16.98.. so let's leave it at 17)
at market value, these 8,000 shares is now worth 136,000

Current 'paper' loss = 11,080 (dun like the term 'paper loss' A loss is a loss. )



Now .... how much can the dividends help. (A bit of work here cos need to check the ex date and see which shares qualified for which dividends)

PBBANK dividend of 0.37 went ex on March 2019. Original Sin of 1,000 shares qualified for it.  (0.37x1=0.37)
PBBANk next dividend of 0.33 went ex on 29 Aug 2019 Only 2,000 shares qualified for it. (0.33x2 = 0.66)
PBBANK next dividend of 0.40 went ex on 12 March 2020. Only 6,000 shares qualified for it. (0.40x6 = 2.40)

Total dividends received = 3.43

So paper loss = 11,080
dividend received = 3430

Therefore ... current loss = rm7,650
dump in extra 100k plus to average down and now still lose money!!

** after thoughts?

this example clearly showed that average down did not help at all (despite PBBank being a top fundamentally company)
Average down 8 times, meant increasing our investment 8 times...
we need to address this issue, yes?
we not into some fantasy game where we can average down and average down...
we have $$$ limit la

we can buy a good stock at a bad price.
average down might not help us recover our initial mistake!
>>>>

Yes, the biggest thing about DCA or Averaging Down is ... 'the investment' explodes exponentially.....

Think of Maybank now...

it's about 7.5k a pop of 1,000 shares....

how many times can you play the game of DCA?

Last but not least again .... is there really meat in the investment?

Why so fixated on Maybank? How much do you think you can really make?

LOL. Obviously investment takes time.

Reason I asked is do you even evaluate out the risk reward ratio?

Is Maybank really the best value for your investment?

Do you even see the possibility of the share price even rising?

Or all your hope lies solely on the dividends?

Takaful PE 11.3, CAGR REV 13.6, ROE 28, DY 4
BIMB: PE 7.9, CAGR REV 10.6, ROE 13, DY 4.6
KPower (Risky bet): PE 26, CAGR REV 190, DY 0, ROE 8.4

Takaful: Forumers say something is brewing in(dont know how reliable it is), but I dont give a fck. I buy for long term
BIMB: dont buy now, let it drop more (banks sentiment now bad, can drop more one)
Kpower: No comment, just saw amazing QR and went to have a quick look

take a look at the Semi players ! my local semi returns are quite good.. the edge has a very good article previous week.. example frontken, inari..

After something happen = credit loss
Before and anticipated things to happen = loss provision OR expected credit loss (ECL)
How accurate is their ECL prediction model, this I dont know
If you want to be safe, go for banks with higher loan loss coverage ratio?

For maybank (since a lot of maybank supporters here, I personally think CIMB is much more attractive at the current prices):


For the details, look below


For CIMB:


For the details, look below


Not sure if anyone actually goes through financial statement/balance sheet before investing. But it is wiser to do so: a lot less risk, when you know the share value.

IMO, banks are good for investments, but not good for trading. NOSH too high, very hard for sharks to collect MOST and swing it in a certain direction. Might still possible to do it, but sharks need A DAMN LOT of time to collect at low prices. But I am happy with the 7-10% dividend yield after economy recovery. This year prolly expecting less DY, but I go for long term, I am still in my 20s.
With the anti-banks sentiment, I seriously dont see how bank share prices will rise significantly.
Share price will only go up, once IBs or sharks have collected enough and start sharing news (most prolly they will use economy recovery as the trend later in 6 months - 1 year time) to push the share price up.

Dont buy now? Let it drop more?
IMO, can still drop, with
anti bank sentiment + goreng trend, no one in bursa now is in investing mode

Also QR2 not yet out. Wait patiently, analyze properly only execute. Dont take unnecessary risk.

All talk about glove. Nobody looking at bank stocks? All green 

Whilst everyone is focused on glove, may I bring to everyone’s attention that CIMB is undergoing yet another internal management changes? This is reported by The Edge today.

This is what of the reason why share price is depressed. If management keep changing, how to manage the company properly?

I wont buy them despite being the cheapest among the big 3 bank.

Like I said I used to work there so still know quite a bit of whats going on in there, including the office politics.

Everyone knows Maybank and PBB performs better, but as long as CIMB pays better or at least the same, as an employee I dont care.

But as a shareholder, I wont invest until they resolve this key issue. Company which keep change management cannot focus on business because the management is busy thinking how to play office politics.

Ya but saying it in Parliament is 101% confirm liao unless  u-turn

KGB has started its engine. Now up +8%.

No, I didn't buy it. Too focused on glove stocks.

Stock Watch

1.  Fintec
2.  YTL Reit

YTL Hospitality Reit has been on my watch list since MCO. It has the highest valuation ranking among all the REITs. The valuation is 2.7/3 but the fundamental is bad at 0.15/3.

Yesterday, it spiked +6.94%.

Kenanga has also placed it under Trading Buy today with R1 at RM0.87 and R2 at RM0.95. Stop loss at RM0.68. To quote Kenanga,

"The availability of vaccines to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to spur a swift recovery in the hospitality
industry. This will then benefit YTLREIT – which owns a wide portfolio of prime hotel properties spread across Malaysia,
Japan and Australia – after being severely hit by the multiple lockdowns triggered by the virus outbreak.

• Capturing the Group’s deteriorating fundamentals, its share price plunged 49% YTD to a record low of RM0.69 in early
November this year, which was even below its March 2020 trough of RM0.70".


Again, this is not my recommendation to buy or sell. Just for sharing. Please do your own research.

Sekian, laporan saya.
Yes, I know. This is the time that I have to keep on reminding myself that it is dumb luck and not skill. Otherwise, there will be a tendency to be overconfident. That is fatal. 

My Hevea stock is now up +8.88% and Latitud is up +3.89%. I am tempted to take profit. See how after lunch. 

But when the vaccine is already start distributing (this means post phase 3 approval), you wont be able to get at this price anymore. Still I am a bit skeptical going into hospitality and flights before a phase 3 approved vaccine is authenticated by WHO. However, we all know that phase 3 approval will not take too long from now. It is a bet la going in now. But might turn out to be a very very good bet

Pfizer only up 2.8%. Guess the markets are more rational today.

cilaka maybank loan moratorium also can get 2 billion clean profit this quarter.

yup sadly, us retailers can never beat them hahah bankers always win (most of the time)

mistress maybe?