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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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andrekua2
post May 14 2021, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ May 13 2021, 06:24 PM)
I think our stock market doesn't move as much with US compared to others due to the fact our market is largely domestic players and not over valued. I am for one waiting for bank stocks to drop but surprisingly it is quite stable and even went up yesterday despite mco 3.0. I think strictor mco or political turmoil affect our market more than US market movement.
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Is moratorium still ongoing? Once this stop, I believe we will see a clearer picture. Besides government has allowed withdrawal from epf which flushed the market with temporary liquidity. If USA needs to print money, I don't see how other market is not affected. Yes, Asian countries tend to have higher rate of savings but I would say 60% has very low to nil savings.
andrekua2
post May 14 2021, 08:19 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ May 14 2021, 07:25 PM)
In terms of Banks and the potential NPLs post moratorium, it is already provisioned for in last years budgeting exercise.
Expected to go 3-4% from 1.5-2% from before the pandemic.
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Is this just consumer loan or include commercial lending? I believe numbers will be much much higher.
andrekua2
post May 14 2021, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ May 14 2021, 09:28 PM)
Across the board with the main segment coming from retail.
These are just industry estimations from end of Q1. If you hold a pessimistic view, yes it could end up being worse.
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Personally I think it will be very bad. For example, in steel industry, business is really bad but we're saved by the crazy ride in steel price which has increase 70% by now. Basically we're trying to sell everything we had and only buy what's needed.
andrekua2
post May 18 2021, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ May 17 2021, 03:53 PM)
Look at

KPOWER
FRONTKN
TASCO
LIONIND..
Deep blood.. deep dive many days..  doh.gif
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Lion Industries? Good luck with that choice. Obviously you knew nothing about steel industries.

Anyway, steel price has been rising a lot since December and now peaking around 4700-5000 (steel plates and round bars). Construction related steel are usually much cheaper (few hundreds cheaper). Hiaptek, LeonFuat and AnnJoo would be a better pick for steel price increase since they stockpile them. Certain counters are HRC (hot rolled coil) or CRC (cold rolled coil) players. Recently MITI recommended Kastam to increase duty for CRC from Vietnam due to anti dumping, hence it caused the price of CRC to spike really hard.

Lion Industries is under William Cheng and this guy had a HRC mill before named MegaSteel which went bust. They were unable to compete with oversea pricing and always rely on government protection. Even when TunM banned the import of these, they still could post losses after losses. They also had a bar center called AmSteel and those who bought their shares in the past will curse it to hell. Najib lifted many of the restrictions that prohibited importation for steel that were produced locally. Hence, steel mills are barely profitable.

BTW,

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223616.shtml

China government had step in to control steel price from getting out of hand. Thats why yesterday selloff. To be honest, steel price around this level is not sustainable.
andrekua2
post May 18 2021, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 18 2021, 09:16 AM)
Good sharing!
Yup... obviously one should never touch anything related with Lion .....
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Not to say cannot touch but you really knew to survey steel pricing and demand. Steel price are kinda seasonal at times, and it can continuously spike for few months before supply finally caught up with demand. Therefore if pricing is low (sub 3k around November) and China were shutting down steel factories left right center to cut pollution. When steel price suddenly spike, it usually follow suit for few months. If you are not in the steel industry, you will not know whether steel price is up or not. Lion steel business is not very good but they still keep the production up and will have a stockpile which would be very easy to clear during the shortage period. However what goes up must come down, and it come crashing down as fast as it goes up. Right now price is still pretty much at the top but once China dump onto the market... then the fairy tale will end.
andrekua2
post May 19 2021, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ May 18 2021, 05:13 PM)
Million dollar question 🙋‍♂️

What should we do during hyperinflation? Hold stocks? But knowing it will crash one day and hope we are not the last one in the musical chair game? I have not been into such phase in my life
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I saw a youtube video before. Hyperinflation rarely affect normals because nobody gives money to the poor. Instead banks will continue lending to the rich, and where does the money goes into? Properties, stocks, crypto, etc. As long as the returns beat the lowly 1-2% interest rate, they will continue doing that. Meanwhile the poor will just look and wow... at those price hike... unable to do anything about it.
andrekua2
post May 19 2021, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ May 19 2021, 01:22 PM)
Thanks uncle biggrin.gif
have to slowly adjust my style of investing trading technique  sweat.gif
Indeed here is a good place for exchanging views and insights rclxm9.gif  always great to view in different lens of others
But what goes down will comes up. sunset for reits today will be another sunrise for reits in few years time
I'm looking forward to gold backed cryptocurrency using smart contract. no need to break down of physical gold as it is stored in london, sg or US, flexible and reliable payment method. perfect storage of wealth and usage as currency
Yes, if wrong, then it is wrong, no point for sulking. therefore always stanby cash aside for emergency fund because you don't know when you'll be needing it 
I think property will be a lilt stagnant in Malaysia. Singapore maybe a better place to speculate on properties. by the way, BTC just crashed, with a big surprise
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Mini crash has been a little too frequent lately.

andrekua2
post May 25 2021, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ May 24 2021, 01:32 PM)
Mahsing just got approval for manufacturing. Fly 🌠✈️🚀🛸
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Do your homework before investing.
andrekua2
post May 25 2021, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ May 24 2021, 10:21 AM)
Watching the bounce today.
And I'm wondering how many punters are actually in Bursa because Genting is closed now.
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Sekarang tak payah genting liao... kan ada crypto... so syok in crypto even though I started 2 weeks ago. I survived the crash intact for now... ciaozz...
andrekua2
post May 25 2021, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ May 25 2021, 01:21 PM)
I know of some retailers who were bullish on gloves and other local stocks until the start of this year.
The subsequent drop threw them all out of the market, and they migrated to crypto in Mar/Apr just to be met with another crash.

I got no skin in the game when it comes to crypto so am happy with the observer status for now.
At least it is something to talk about.
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Stock? Crypto? Honestly what is the difference? If one dont do his homework, then chances are he will kena burn, thrown down from the top of the hill.
andrekua2
post May 28 2021, 08:39 PM

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Conlanfirm besok merah liao... Luckily sold all my homeritz warrants since foresee this is coming. Still holding mothershare.
andrekua2
post May 28 2021, 08:43 PM

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QUOTE(Randomization @ May 28 2021, 08:41 PM)
Besok saturday my friend.  laugh.gif
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Oh yeah... But I have to work sat, sun, mon like dog liao... Just asked my customer who placed order yesterday evening. Want me to deliver before 1st June. Sigh...
andrekua2
post May 31 2021, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2021, 08:59 AM)
Automotive components like workshop/parts are allowed to open.

The 10% limit is most puzzling. There are many good small business that are built on a small workforce. 10% of a workforce of 10 people, how to operate?
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True... I think half baked mco.

I'm in steel and we only have 20ppl on payroll. Two person work... I think the purpose is to let big mnc work.

I think Assmin indirectly saying we will move on with or without you in the future.

This post has been edited by andrekua2: May 31 2021, 09:12 AM
andrekua2
post May 31 2021, 09:29 AM

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Wow... It's happening again here... SerbaK very cheap yo... Who said he's gonna buy a truck load?

I think auditor also very nice what... Only red flags... I think normal ppl like me would have call macc.
andrekua2
post May 31 2021, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2021, 03:34 PM)
here's an article on London Biscuits...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lond...tle-rm983m-loan

Do note that I am not implying anything on Serba but just that I want to point out why this article is worth noting/reading...

Quote: The company cited cash flow constraints for the default, which has raised eyebrows, as its books show that it is asset rich. As at March 31, 2019, total assets amounted to RM845.83 million, which translated into a net asset value per share of RM1.57.

Quote: From FY2014 to FY2018, London Biscuits’ asset acquisition ranged from RM23 million to RM59 million, averaging at RM43.25 million per year. The bulk of the asset additions to the company is found in its plant and machinery, with the additions averaging RM23.97 million per year.

By comparison, Oriental Food’s asset acquisition over its last five financial years averaged RM16.51 million while that of Apollo Food averaged RM7.64 million.

It is worth noting that London Biscuits’ external auditors gave a qualified opinion on its financial statements for FY2018. The auditors said that they were unable to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence in respect of acquisitions of plant and machinery totalling RM52.46 million that year.

The auditors also highlighted that they were unable to ascertain the correctness of the ageing data of its trade receivables as well as the related information used to calculate and measure the expected credit loss required under MFRS 9.

Quote: London Biscuits’ trade receivables more than doubled from RM100.55 million in FY2014 to RM212.82 million in FY2018. However, revenue contracted 14.2% to RM308.7 million over the same period.

Revenue did increase between FY2014 and FY2016 to RM436.51 million from RM356 million previously. However, it fell to RM426.02 million in FY2017 and then to RM308.7 million in FY2018.

It is worth noting that trade receivables surged 76% to RM177.13 million in FY2015 from RM100.55 million in the previous year. A total of RM62.24 million in allowance for bad debts was made in FY2018. This came alongside a RM1.99 million impairment of trade receivables and RM1.57 million worth of bad debts being written off.

The allowance for bad debts of RM62.24 million was the highest over the five years. Prior to that, there were hardly any allowances and no bad debts were written off.

Quote: It is safe to say that one of London Biscuits’ main sources of cash flow is borrowings. From its statement of cash flow, it appears that the group’s operations have been financed by loans in three out of the last five financial years.

Cash flow from operating activities for FY2018, FY2017 and FY2015 were in negative territory of RM12.52 million, RM109.27 million and RM27.13 million respectively. Meanwhile, its cash flow from financing activities amounted to RM72.34 million (FY2018), RM83.63 million (FY2017) and RM57.07 million (FY2015).
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too bad the article did not mention how London Biscuits debts soared .....
But yes... rocketing receivables is something one should keep an eye on.
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Aiyoooo... boon3 dug out this gem... hahahaha

I did invest in London Biscuit before. I think I sold for a small profit back then. It was quite okay at first until they bought Nutriplus. Not sure why they would buy Nutriplus and sold it back at the same price to Lay Hong after years of losses.

Just rechecked my past posts... it seem to go downhill after they sold their stakes in Lay Hong and then change to TPC (Nutriplus). Also cant confirm whether I make profits or losses.

This post has been edited by andrekua2: May 31 2021, 05:13 PM
andrekua2
post Jun 2 2021, 02:31 PM

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I guess Malaysians in general do prefer blue chips thus willing to pay insane premium price for Hartalega. Honestly just buy Apple stocks if you like blue chips so much. Besides Apple only trading at 20PER compared to Hartalega.

This post has been edited by andrekua2: Jun 2 2021, 02:31 PM
andrekua2
post Jun 4 2021, 09:41 AM

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It will be like Maxis. Privatize then dismantle valuable assets, relist at premium.
andrekua2
post Jun 10 2021, 03:00 AM

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Wow... Finally nobody curse JP Morgan liao...

From the looks of it (guesstimate), ASP is still high but seem like less order now. Now if the ASP tank below USD 50 next quarter with even less orders, I wonder if more dumping will come... Price war might come earlier than anticipated. How many glove stock will become penny stocks in 2022?
andrekua2
post Jun 10 2021, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(jvcpcv55 @ Jun 10 2021, 11:03 AM)
even ASP at 50
TG still can make 1B profit for next Q
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That's why I love your persistency. Good luck...
andrekua2
post Jun 10 2021, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(Jack Bauer 525 @ Jun 10 2021, 05:54 PM)
Andre sifu is from the glove industry (am I right), if he redflag, you should take heed ... hehe
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Nah... I'm not sifu...

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