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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 04:52 PM

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What the...... EPF help again? From - 16+ to -6+.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Sep 10 2020, 04:52 PM)
Pharma, glove and basically many also red....it's extreme. Not sure how long this will go on..
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Some blue chips seems ok.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Sep 10 2020, 04:54 PM)
Bank I only see MBB and PBB...both close at the same price as yesterday  sweat.gif
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Meaning got backup in case of falling down. Gloves doesn't.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 04:58 PM

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Supermax biggest loser today. Mother share lost more than Kossan, and all warrants in red.....

Tomorrow, might hit 5.....
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Sep 10 2020, 05:12 PM)
IB want to makan those call warrant
else they will be deep shit once matured, some manipulate I would say true
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That is a shit load of warrants I say. Especially Supes.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(ratloverice @ Sep 10 2020, 05:49 PM)
Is this troll or what?

Suggestion: sailang topglove.
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What is he saying though? I banana.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2020, 05:59 PM)
top losers today are all gloves... and pharmaniaga, vitrox.
as a recap, glove counters are now back to late june-early july prices.

lost 30-60% from their peaks.

kossan is the worst, i think >50%.

supermax, harta, comfort close behind.

TG lost about 33% from peak, more or less.

buy, sell, hold, stay at sidelines.... everyone gets his/her choice! tongue.gif

markets continue, bursa continues, factories continue, covid19 continues...
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I will be watching from the sidelines at opening tomorrow. See how it goes first before attempting one last try on TG.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 06:17 PM

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Another share buyback by TG. Twice in two days. Interesting.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:33 PM)
This 14.9 million is just the start. Our net gear ratio is still very positive. Announcement of PAT also is very soon
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So ... when will rally upwards start? At what price and day? brows.gif
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:48 PM)
No probs
True, u play long or short term? When i say short i mean in the range of 3 months.
Esok kita sama sama tengok TS talk at 8tv, then we discuss here hehehe
We started paying back the workers dy as mentioned in the news also similar to Hartalega, unfortunately still no positive news on this :/
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You know what, the last of my current capital just sailang into TG tomorrow.... after observing in first 30 mins first. No turning back. Looks like a change of wind happening.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(debonairs91 @ Sep 10 2020, 07:17 PM)
I pity those without courage to cut loss
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Sep 10 2020, 07:22 PM)
I pity more on those that trying so hard to get attention here.
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Two /Ktards arguing in here. While we munch popcorn.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 10 2020, 07:25 PM)
Nice, legit source

"while its short-term results are expected to be robust and higher average selling (ASPs) will drive ratings upgrades, earnings are expected to peak in FY21 and will unlikely repeat once the demand-supply equation normalises — either in the second half of 2021 or the first half of 2022"

I skeptical sia, precovid TG Rm1.46. TG now is still 4-5x more expensive that pre-covid. ASP earliest normalizing 9 more months.

But i truly believe in a dead cat bounce in the near future. Now is just anxiety mode. Any more massive selling might be overdone and stage for a dead cat bounce. Playing this bounce right will also make us a lot of money
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There is a 50:50 chance that TG shares might rebound earliest tomorrow in anticipation of next week's results. Best wait for first 30 mins and see where it goes, then only slowly go in. Worst case scenario is that holding the shares for a while, but much easier disposed later in the future.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 07:54 PM)
Haha it was a rhetoric question. Nice try, but what you described is a company warrant, not a structured warrant.

Unlike a company warrant, a structured warrant is issued by an IB in return for a premium. So the first investor buys the structured warrant directly from Macquarie, and then the warrant is subsequently traded freely on Bursa just like any other share. At the expiry date, if the mother share price is above the warrant exercise price, Macquarie will settle the difference in cash. If the mother share price is equal to or below the warrant exercise price, the warrant will expire worthless.

Now in this case, Macquarie issued this warrant C67 on 3 February 2020 (before the covid19 bull run) with an expiry of 16 Oct 2020 (next month).

With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. If the mother share price close at RM8, the compensation is RM4.76 per warrant [(8-1.67) / 1.33]. As you can see, even though the difference in the mother share price is just 60% (8/5), they will need to compensate 90% (4.76/2.50) more. This is the leverage effect of a structured warrant.

Now the next thing that people need to know - just 2 weeks ago, Macquarie issued a report with a TP of RM30. Today they issued a new report with higher profit forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on the basis that ASP is increasing faster than expected.

At the same time, he halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? He did not know how to do his job previously and suddenly now he knows? Did he suddenly have a crystal ball?

Or did some head of department from the derivative division realised they shouldnt have issued C67 because they didn't expect the bull run sparked by Covid-19, spoke to the IB CEO, who then spoke to the head of department of the research division, who then had a "word" with the independent research analyst?

I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just stating the facts and "possible scenarios". You make the judgement. This is something we need to ponder upon before taking in the headline RM5.40 downgrade report.
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So you're saying..... Macquarie "created" the fear to lower TG price to 1.67 by October, or EVERYONE to sell the C67 warrant - whichever comes first?

Now I understand why suddenly they are creating a contradictory report to CIMB one, which says the TP is 9+......



ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 08:43 PM)
My target tg rm12 to 14
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At current price, it would take like 3-4 limit ups to achieve that target. But then we have seen madness in the past few months, so......
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 08:57 PM)
Don't dream of consecutive limit ups. It will take time. Need to prove quarter over quarter of booming profit before we can reach that level.
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Maybe one limit up, but if more confidence comes in, can slowly build up to the TP. At 10 also I already happy enough. 12 is a bonus.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 10 2020, 10:01 PM

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DJI again up in green.... but, will KLSE do a 180 like today tomorrow.?
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 11 2020, 04:55 AM

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Oh boy. DJI end up in quite red today. Futures too. Today KLSE gonna be bloodshed again......
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 11 2020, 08:21 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Sep 11 2020, 08:14 AM)
they say it’s dragon drink water wor...
user posted image
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Dragon breathes fire.

Drink water = 14th floor.
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 11 2020, 08:35 AM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Sep 11 2020, 08:27 AM)
Brace for another red Friday, peeps.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Hmm, sequence of events this morning is different from my usual working days..... instead of going iin office and get ready before opening bell, suddenly only be in by 11am....a sign of things to come at 9am?
ZeroSOFInfinity
post Sep 11 2020, 08:41 AM

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QUOTE(B@rt @ Sep 11 2020, 08:33 AM)
market so volatile unless you super expert at playing the day trading best to hold your cash tight tight instead of reinvesting so soon... I'm waiting for market sentiment to improve and at least half of the issues affecting the market below are resolved.

- moratorium money leaving the market
- foreign funds leaving since 2-3 months ago
- poor market sentiment due to worsening economy and unemployment rise
- blue chip stocks like bank stocks impacted due to expected credit loss after moratorium
- vaccine news : when got good vaccine news gloves go down and drag the market down. bad vaccine news market go down because of fears and this drags down gloves.
- US tech stocks go down causing Asian stocks to follow.
- unstable government and questionable acts, eg 1MDB case settlement, LGE issue
- local Covid-19 cases rising

Resolved
- Sept OPR cut - BNM decided not to go ahead
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+ dumping of excessive shares of gloves and vaccine accumulated (until God knows when).


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