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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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AVFAN
post Jul 11 2020, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Jul 11 2020, 08:40 PM)
Nothing new:
ok, not a big deal then.

i m not mbb customer, unaffected. biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(CaptainofDestiny @ Jul 12 2020, 12:33 AM)
Feel like going to top up another 200 shares of Supermax on Monday. I already entered at RM10.86, was waiting for its correction to buy at lower but it keep on increasing. When I thought the next day will drop a bit then next day drop a bit then enter again, it did not happen lol. I just afraid that when after I buy on Monday then it will fall. I think TP of RM15-20 is possible to reach after saw so many people analysed over it but not so soon i guess. So guys, do u think I should go for it on Monday?
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u must have read all the articles, analyses, predictions, valuations, etc.

do not get carried away by "18, 20, 30"... more so if u r not a trader.

even big bro TG could not run up to the current consensus rm25 that easily.

my first spmx buy was at 7.26... had see it almost doubling already... and i think it is getting toppish at 13.62

i agree it can run up a bit more in the short term... 15, 16... who knows?

while the frenzied momentum may push it a bit further, it will not last... the risks are getting much higher, be very mindful.

in the longer run, everything will normalize, prices will return to a more sustainable level, which will surely not be at the peak.

here is a reasonable assessment, imo:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bcchiew/2..._Case_Study.jsp
AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 09:02 AM

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recap as of fri 10 jul:

closing prices ~ target price (highest from the list)

topglove 21.92 ~ 30.00
harta 17.06 ~ 20.00
supermax 13.62 ~ 14.00
kossan 12.38 ~ 14.00

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/7113.jsp
AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 12 2020, 10:28 AM)
TG, Harta have room to grow. Kossan bought low so already in profit. Supermax..... grab and run.
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this, i agree.
and i won't be surprised that harta will eventually surpass TG due to its higher nitrile mix.

QUOTE(infested_ysy @ Jul 12 2020, 12:37 PM)
Wasn't Topglove down and stuck at RM15 a week or two before due to some rumors of a covid vaccine working?
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it wud b naive to think "i got a vaccine" and all gloves and masks will not be required anymore rightaway. biggrin.gif
there are now 20 odd trial vaccines, with no results yet.
when the first one deemed workable arrives, at least 6 months is needed for mass trials.
then another 6-12 months to sort out the admin, proprietory rights, licensing, production issues.
and when a vaccine gets to be mass administered, do we think gloves and masks will no longer be used?!

WHO and some other bodies have also warned that a vaccine may only give protection for a few months, i.e. immunity is not permanent.
while the vicious little sucker keeps mutating for another vaccine to catch up.

the demand for gloves will stay strong, very strong for at least next 1.5 years, incl restocking of drawn down inventories.
new lines, expansions, new factories will rebalance the supply-demand equation.
prices of gloves and hence stock prices of glovemakers will rebalance too.
it is also wrong to think that those stock prices will rise forever.
they will peak at some point and then fall back to a "fair" value.
how much, how fast is something nobody can tell now.
the only thing to do is, if u r vested, is to keep close to the latest development and news.
and react when u must.

AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 12 2020, 02:31 PM)
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/202...hortage/1883696

This gives doubt if capacity can run at 100%...
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if there is labor shortage, 2 things can happen:

.. employ more locals, higher cost but higher revenue too.

.. run below full capacity, raise prices as demand is relentless.

either way, the total profits will likely be unaffected that much.

anyway, being in boland, i m quite sure they can find ways round this labor issue. tongue.gif

....


there is this chain reaction being played now... suppliers to the glove makers.

luxchem, texchem... their stock prices ran up significantly on fri.

i'm not a fan of penny stocks but will keep an eye on them.

AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 04:08 PM

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some updates on cov19 vaccine:

QUOTE
The World Health Organization said that 21 candidate vaccines are currently in clinical trials being tested on human volunteers, three of which are in the third phase of those trials.

U.S. biotech firm Moderna, U.K. pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and China’s Sinovac Biotech have made the most progress towards developing vaccine candidates for the coronavirus. However, Moderna, which is working with the U.S. National Institutes of Health, recently said that its late-stage trial for a vaccine will be delayed, possibly by a few weeks.

A potential vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech has garnered immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/11/bill-gates-...est-bidder.html

AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jul 12 2020, 07:03 PM)
Stock price is only as good as what the next buyer (or punter) is willing to pay for.

Going back to the fundamentals is a much safer option to invest. Buying undervalued stocks for the long term is a much safer option than buying overvalued stocks for short term trade. The only downside of buying undervalued stocks is that you cant make quick profit because the markets can remain irrational and inefficient longer than you can remain solvent. In layman terms, you might sell your undervalued stocks before the asset's prices truly reflect their values.
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can u name a couple of these undervalued stocks?

i mean those u think can truly buy-keep and not risk selling becos "low got lower"?


a lot of talk here about rising stocks.

will be good if there is a good discussion on good undervalued stocks, how to pick them.

and stocks that about to dive big time -give a warning to those who are maybe unaware..?
AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 12 2020, 06:09 PM)
If anyone needs motivation to buy Harta shares next week, this should provide the answer:-
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that cimb analyst isn't very good, is he?

so fast change his mind... from 8.8 to 48.7%... people can die la! laugh.gif

As such, he has raised his FY21-23F earnings forecasts by 8.8% to 48.7%.



harta... is waiting for fda approval for their AMG - this cud be the game changer.
AVFAN
post Jul 12 2020, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jul 12 2020, 10:38 PM)
i mean those u think can truly buy-keep and not risk selling becos "low got lower"? YES

The bank sector took a big hit from all the negativity in the market (OPR cut, possible NPLs). I personally think this is the perfect time to collect before the negativity fades. Banks will come back before the economy recovers (just look at how they came back in 2009-2011 after the sharp selling in 2008). I would say try looking for financial stocks that lost a lot of their market cap and read up the balance sheet, income and cash flow statement to pick banks that suits your risk appetite best. I am heavily invested in financial stocks because they are very resilient and will not go into PN17 like AA.

My 3 biggest holdings are
(i) BIMB and TAKAFUL as their past performance prior covid were superb, and their price look attractive. These 2 are the perfect growth stocks that give dividends better than the FDs (unlike most tech stocks - little to no dividends).
(ii) CIMB because I am taking advantage of the hin leong and hontop exposure that causes the huge price drop (now extremely low P/B). Plan to sell after riding the wave when it comes back like how banks stocks did in 2009-2011 unless its ROE improves.

Maybank and pbb are not my biggest holdings despite their superb performance prior covid because
(i) pbb was way overvalued prior covid and still slightly is
(ii) maybank share price now is already very close to their price prior covid, there is nothing to bottom fish here.

My approach definitely cannot result in huge and quick profit like the gloves. But with fundamentals supporting my decisions, at least I wont panic sell if it drops but will continue to collect more.

There are other undervalued stocks in other sectors too. But I am heavily invested in the financial sector NOW because there is a better opportunity to bottom fish HERE NOW.
*
thanks for sharing thoughts.

bank stocks are definitely steadier than most.

i am not much into bank stocks, perhaps will dig into that some time.


AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 08:53 AM

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gloves will spike again today.

klci may cross 1600...

enjoy! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(Marcus5003 @ Jul 13 2020, 09:16 AM)
wah~top 4 goreng till gao gao...miss boat dy
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the question always is... when it dips, will u buy? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 13 2020, 09:20 AM)
Gila. TG hit RM 2 in 10 mins. Cant get some though even with orders in place.... sad.gif
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23.30... will u buy?! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Jul 13 2020, 09:25 AM)
Now dip from the morning peak, can buy ar?
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hard to advice u.

if u see it going to 25 or higher, any dip is good opportunity to buy.

if u see it crashing to 10 like some people, never buy la... biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Jul 13 2020, 09:11 AM)
fuhhhhhhhhhhhhhh tg flyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. come on break 1600!
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resistance at 1610.
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(XweienX @ Jul 13 2020, 09:46 AM)
glove counters esp superman and tg are moving like crazy. see also scared.
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spmx, i m scared.

TG, no... not yet. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Jul 13 2020, 09:49 AM)
No way Rm10,

Now some some /k in lowyat talks about RM35, not RM25 anymore.
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ya, depends where u read... it's a frenzy now.

some see it 100% speculation, ponzi goreng.

others look for confirmed data, profits, p/e, ASP.

i see 25, even 30, but not 35... yet. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 10 2020, 07:07 AM)
will supermax get into fmbklci?
....

there is a glove (nitrile included) co. listed on SGX - riverstone.

its capitalization is about 1/2 the size of supermax (which is 1/3 of topglove or harta).

due to it not listed on bursa, its price has rallied to SGD3.26 but not as much as the bursa listed ones.

currently SGD3.26, may still have good upside as new lines come into production now, prices rising.
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i mentioned this riverstone in SGX last week.

it is running up too like bursa counterparts, +5.5% this morning.

now at SGD3.44, new target price is now 3.90.
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction...DINGS%20LIMITED
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Riverston..._glove_king.jsp
*


AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Jul 13 2020, 10:03 AM)
Yup. It can go up to 17 easily. Just look at the number of Supermax warrants in top 10.
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careful... spmx is now superoverbought.
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Jul 13 2020, 10:53 AM)
super bull!! klse broke 1600!!
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we r witnessing the super glove bull, not bursa bull. biggrin.gif

when it is over, we may not see another one in the next 20 years.

enjoy!
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2020, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Jul 13 2020, 11:56 AM)
few counters carry the whole market up.

how to identify these kind of potential stocks? i want ready for the potential super stock even if it take 20 yrs. that time will be warren buffett liao
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warren buffet also missed the nasdaq bull run:

QUOTE
"Warren Buffett wasn't able to adjust because his time frame is so long-term that the markets move quicker than he was able to,” he said. Meanwhile, Druckenmiller — who Shannon pointed out is “somewhat notorious ... for being an aggressive trader” may have thought the same.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-b...-172148318.html

Warren Buffett’s lack of big moves during sell-off is ‘tied to his age,’ Ken Fisher says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/warren-buff...isher-says.html


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