As per CIMB report, EPF silently has 4.9% stake in TG, just below the 5% disclosure threshold. I wonder what is their cost.

But the "broken clock" say supply will come in faster than everyone expected.

Proceed with cautious. Sentiment has changed. Many retailers who got burned will likely never return.

No idea. It was on CIMB's latest analyst report.

Early morning already out la.

Base case: RM5.40
Bull case: RM20.40
Bear Case RM2.80

Basically in between RM2.80 - RM20.40, this analyst forecast is correct.

Am extremely heavily invested into gaming companies (private though) as well.

Honestly believe esports is the future.

3.15pm, TG already near yesterday's record high volume of 135m.

Today confirm will break record again. New high.

Lol I was just thinking - Macquarie did issue quite a lot of call warrants for Top Glove right? That might explain why the sudden change in their analyst TP.

Anyway, everyone is selling like the healthcare companies are falling into PN17, their factories have all caught fire, or Trump just nuked Beijing.

Unless these happen, I will stay put for now...

15 mil share buy back. Almost 10% of today's volume. That's quite a lot of money for TG to spend to defending share price.

I respect him. Some will say share buyback is not in the best interest of the company (should invest the excess cash to grow profit blablabla). But whether or not he can successfully defend the share price in the end, I still respect him for trying.

Not many bosses of listed companies in Malaysia will do this. Many list co will suddenly incur "marketing fee" or "consulting fee" from some unknown BVI companies when the listco makes money.

I'm a warrant noob. Can anyone tell me how does this Macquarie warrant TOPGLOV-C67 works. Salient terms:

Expiry date - 16 Oct 20
Exercise Price - RM1.667
Exercise Ratio - 1.3333
Breakeven price at expiry (obtained from malaysiawarrants.com.my) - RM6.43

Does that mean if the mother share price is above RM1.667 on 16 Oct 2020, Macquarie have to compensate whoever holding the warrant on that date?

Can this be a reason why they suddenly u-turn their TP for Toglove from RM10 just 2 weeks ago to RM5 - to push down the share price (and hence the warrant price) so that they can buy back the warrants?

Not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just curious and want to know how this warrant works.

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Sep 10 2020, 07:20 PM

Haha it was a rhetoric question. Nice try, but what you described is a company warrant, not a structured warrant.

Unlike a company warrant, a structured warrant is issued by an IB in return for a premium. So the first investor buys the structured warrant directly from Macquarie, and then the warrant is subsequently traded freely on Bursa just like any other share. At the expiry date, if the mother share price is above the warrant exercise price, Macquarie will settle the difference in cash. If the mother share price is equal to or below the warrant exercise price, the warrant will expire worthless.

Now in this case, Macquarie issued this warrant C67 on 3 February 2020 (before the covid19 bull run) with an expiry of 16 Oct 2020 (next month).

With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. If the mother share price close at RM8, the compensation is RM4.76 per warrant [(8-1.67) / 1.33]. As you can see, even though the difference in the mother share price is just 60% (8/5), they will need to compensate 90% (4.76/2.50) more. This is the leverage effect of a structured warrant.

Now the next thing that people need to know - just 2 weeks ago, Macquarie issued a report with a TP of RM30. Today they issued a new report with higher profit forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on the basis that ASP is increasing faster than expected.

At the same time, he halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? He did not know how to do his job previously and suddenly now he knows? Did he suddenly have a crystal ball?

Or did some head of department from the derivative division realised they shouldnt have issued C67 because they didn't expect the bull run sparked by Covid-19, spoke to the IB CEO, who then spoke to the head of department of the research division, who then had a "word" with the independent research analyst?

I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just stating the facts and "possible scenarios". You make the judgement. This is something we need to ponder upon before taking in the headline RM5.40 downgrade report.

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Sep 10 2020, 07:55 PM

I don't think they will be able to lower the price to 1.67, but if price is lower, they can compensate less. Also, they can buy back the C67 warrants on the market through proxy.

Who knows what are dirty tricks these IB have under their sleeves?

They are not only contradicting CIMB's report, but also their own report fresh from the oven 2 weeks ago....

Don't dream of consecutive limit ups. It will take time. Need to prove quarter over quarter of booming profit before we can reach that level.

2 month rent free is believable.

In smaller towns like the one which I grew up in, there are even offers for tenants to sign a 2 year contract, paying rent on alternate months. You won't see this on iProperty - you need to talk to the locals. Over-development of commercial properties in smaller towns (and even cities like Melaka) is extremely common. But if your commercial property is in downtown KL or matured areas like PJ, Subang etc you need not worry.

Margin call have not been made yet. Still have to becareful.

Dont feel like vaccine news impact that great anymore.

IMO the rebound is because severe bleed over last few days and due fore rebound. And alsofuelled by stock buyback and speculation on upcoming result next week, as well as what tan sri will say in his interview later this evening. Last round he made magic after EGM...

Where do you say we are now?

LOL LMAO after all the bear analysis you’re still holding?

KYY wanna be.

Sekejap student, sekejap wanna buy commercial property.

Worse than KYY for the lack of consistency.

There is FOMO on Carepls, TG and Supermax now.

Macquarie. They manipulated the price down so they can collect back their expiring warrants