QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 27 2020, 07:09 PM)
Healthy weekend discussion going on here. And good to see investment strategies put forward for discussion.
Allocation into gloves into 2021? Probably 0% for myself as I avoid big popular themes, especially when I consider the boom fully matured. The more money being pumped into one place in a short space of time, the more complicated it gets. Great for coffee shop discussions among my friends, not so great for my strategy of making a little money.
Short term, I am into
Budget 2021. The timing of recovery vs pandemic persisting is up for debate, some thinking recovery is as quick as early next year while some remain bearish. I prefer to focus on events which are more certain, and Budget 2021 is one such. I already know it's passed Dewan Negara and is all go. Starting next week and for the next few months, we will see government contracts being handed out. Money will definitely change hands. That is an opportunity I hopefully have put the right positions in.
Longer term, I have some recovery industries in mind but am still debating keeping a portion of the portfolio in cash. There is a significant gap between where the KLCI is at and the economy on the ground. Whether that gap is reconciled with a controlled landing or a short crash, I have not yet formulated a proper analysis.
I prefer to avoid industries totally reliant on a vaccine like airlines and hospitality in my recovery picks, even in a recovery phase. Just does not tick the right boxes for me.
Same. Yes, they will eventually come back if they dont bankrupt. However, in the process of coming back, right issues might be needed for some of the airlines and hospitality companies. Malls maybe still ok, but not so much for hotels. Even if hotels manage to make a comeback, Airbnb is too competitive for the hotel business to thrive.
My recovery picks are heavily on financials. With the NIM normalization (no more reducing from OPR cut), and a lot of loan loss provisions made for the incoming NPL. The worst is over for financials. In the GFC crisis, OPR was maintained low for 1 year. When OPR starts increasing again, financials will do better. I think financials are good to hold until OPR stops increasing.
Other good recovery sectors might include
- construction (more KL public transport incoming)
- automotive (record sales for perodua and proton driven by incentives)
Recovery sectors which I dont like
- airlines
- hospitality
- property (properties are still too inflated for investment, only super rich people or those who dont understand investment well will buy properties at this current price, also housing index just recorded -ve for the 1st time in 20 years, will drop more, will affect the sector IMO)
- OnG (even if oil demand is back after covid, the supply can be increased anytime by lifting the production cut, the oil price will still remain low at this current price, longer term prospect, maybe OnG will be crushed by RE)