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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 22 2020, 09:07 AM)
Lets see ah. All recoveries stocks, banks, O&G going to be red again.

Might be a good chance to TP glove for this week.
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Vix only up a little though. Us banks all green with about 2-4% gain
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Dec 22 2020, 09:23 AM)
well if glove is green i definitely thumb it up......but everyday they potong stim and start diminishing thru out the day  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif

Lets see whether TG ex div 24th any power or not.....
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Another chance for you to take profit. Hope you wont miss it again
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Kadaj @ Dec 22 2020, 10:25 AM)
7% up 48% down 19% buy
The sell force is very strong this morning. Year end Xmas big sales hohoho
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Ho Ho Ho. When everything is red for no reason, buy the dip simple as that

QUOTE(Rinth @ Dec 22 2020, 10:30 AM)
walao..........
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Managed to breakeven/took profit?

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Dec 22 2020, 10:33 AM
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 22 2020, 10:34 AM)
What? This is a forum what. I do make mistakes. I once called ASP usd17 to ASP usd 120 as a 10 fold increase. LOL! No one corrected me. (maybe my postings is ignored.)

Ya.. my eyes saw the dates of Unisem announcement wrongly.
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Hahaha
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 12:12 PM

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https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/12/...ovid-19-vaccine - MY Pres
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/12/...vaccine-live-tv - US Pres. He took Pzifer

There you go. The thing some forumers have always wanted - Jab on the politicians 1st.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Dec 22 2020, 12:14 PM
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Dec 22 2020, 12:14 PM)
Personally, my holdings have solid fundamentals, in the sense that they either are net cash companies or have strong earnings that have been proven by past record. So I’m not too concern with the fluctuation in share price, esp my holding period is 5-10 years and potentially more if the companies continue to show long term profitability. As of now, I’m sitting at -6.38% of paper loss, if that makes you feel better.  thumbup.gif

Add on:
From long term investor POV, if your valuation tells you a company is rm15 per share in 10 years,
If you get in at rm2 and out at rm 3, in at rm8 out at rm10, in at rm12 out at rm15, your total gain is rm6, excluding transaction costs and opportunity cost.
Just in case you’ve not noticed, sitting at rm2 to rm15 is rm13 gain per share, except much less transaction cost incurred  rclxm9.gif
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But if you sell at abnormal spike that could drop back low, you will be earning more than a total of RM13 /share
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 22 2020, 12:30 PM)
i was referring to today's daily change compared to yesterday close. because today >1000 down.

what do you see in your portfolio change?
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Just entered today, also slightly negative. Entry set too high
HereToLearn
post Dec 22 2020, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 22 2020, 12:35 PM)
same here, what to do, just got to go for the long haul.
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Considering that I threw everything away last Monday (Did not manage to sell at the peak though), buying back at today's price is not too bad.

Self consolation whistling.gif

But yeah, I have to admit that I could have done better, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 14 2020, 03:40 PM)
I think you can start selling now if the counters you are holding now are famous counters, retailers easily panic and will sell if there is a sudden drop later
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 14 2020, 04:29 PM)
I threw all my stocks when I saw it started dropping at an unusually quick pace.
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HereToLearn
post Dec 23 2020, 03:24 PM

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lowya

Huat ya, lai liao lai liao.

Wave 5 incoming
HereToLearn
post Dec 23 2020, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Dec 23 2020, 03:25 PM)
Wat wave 5 😁
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Elliot wave 5
HereToLearn
post Dec 23 2020, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Dec 23 2020, 03:28 PM)
wave five for? unsure.gif
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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Dec 23 2020, 03:29 PM)
I see.. for which counter? Or klci in whole?
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KLFI, I am tracking this la.

For KLCI, as long as it is well supported above 1620, should be good to continue
HereToLearn
post Dec 23 2020, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Dec 23 2020, 03:37 PM)
1800s by Feb 2021? rclxms.gif
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I dont know I just buy at support and let it run, maybe 1800? XD jk jk

QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 23 2020, 03:40 PM)
fmbklci wave5 tp 1632 + 133 = 1765
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rclxm9.gif, btw mind teaching me how to tag people in this forum?
HereToLearn
post Dec 23 2020, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Dec 23 2020, 03:51 PM)
*{fillwithsohainickname}* code smile.gif Hi Boomer biggrin.gif
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Syie9^_^ Testing

QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Dec 23 2020, 04:04 PM)
Lol, your bracket description...

HereToLearn so many people teach you, touched or not, lol
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Must be coming from a very on point nickname to able to attract so many supports and assistance from senpais

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Dec 23 2020, 04:52 PM
HereToLearn
post Dec 24 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Dec 24 2020, 03:18 PM)
Land kosong price will crash or not..
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In penang, now there are more lands available for sale now than 5-7 years ago.
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post Dec 24 2020, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 24 2020, 02:39 PM)
I dont need to see previous years charts

This years appreciation is enough to tell me it is frothy.

I am looking at next 5 years outlook in terms of revenue and profit.
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Wait for another year or 2, maybe can get it below 3.5 for long term investment
HereToLearn
post Dec 27 2020, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 27 2020, 07:09 PM)
Healthy weekend discussion going on here. And good to see investment strategies put forward for discussion.
Allocation into gloves into 2021? Probably 0% for myself as I avoid big popular themes, especially when I consider the boom fully matured. The more money being pumped into one place in a short space of time, the more complicated it gets. Great for coffee shop discussions among my friends, not so great for my strategy of making a little money.

Short term, I am into Budget 2021. The timing of recovery vs pandemic persisting is up for debate, some thinking recovery is as quick as early next year while some remain bearish. I prefer to focus on events which are more certain, and Budget 2021 is one such. I already know it's passed Dewan Negara and is all go. Starting next week and for the next few months, we will see government contracts being handed out. Money will definitely change hands. That is an opportunity I hopefully have put the right positions in.

Longer term, I have some recovery industries in mind but am still debating keeping a portion of the portfolio in cash. There is a significant gap between where the KLCI is at and the economy on the ground. Whether that gap is reconciled with a controlled landing or a short crash, I have not yet formulated a proper analysis. I prefer to avoid industries totally reliant on a vaccine like airlines and hospitality in my recovery picks, even in a recovery phase. Just does not tick the right boxes for me.
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Same. Yes, they will eventually come back if they dont bankrupt. However, in the process of coming back, right issues might be needed for some of the airlines and hospitality companies. Malls maybe still ok, but not so much for hotels. Even if hotels manage to make a comeback, Airbnb is too competitive for the hotel business to thrive.

My recovery picks are heavily on financials. With the NIM normalization (no more reducing from OPR cut), and a lot of loan loss provisions made for the incoming NPL. The worst is over for financials. In the GFC crisis, OPR was maintained low for 1 year. When OPR starts increasing again, financials will do better. I think financials are good to hold until OPR stops increasing.

Other good recovery sectors might include
- construction (more KL public transport incoming)
- automotive (record sales for perodua and proton driven by incentives)

Recovery sectors which I dont like
- airlines
- hospitality
- property (properties are still too inflated for investment, only super rich people or those who dont understand investment well will buy properties at this current price, also housing index just recorded -ve for the 1st time in 20 years, will drop more, will affect the sector IMO)
- OnG (even if oil demand is back after covid, the supply can be increased anytime by lifting the production cut, the oil price will still remain low at this current price, longer term prospect, maybe OnG will be crushed by RE)

HereToLearn
post Dec 27 2020, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Dec 27 2020, 10:02 PM)
I thought we are already in the middle of one? Just look at the photos of the epf queue to withdraw.
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we are already in one since feb 2020
recession = two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP

The next question to ask now is when will we walk out of this one?
Historically, the shortest recession lasted for 6 months and the longest lasted for 65 months, with an average of 17.5 months.

In a recession, it is a good time to collect the counters that are heavily linked to the economy rclxm9.gif

HereToLearn
post Dec 28 2020, 01:06 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 28 2020, 12:57 AM)
When the market has no more bears that will be the time im scare.

Anyway to me i still basically feel its just asset inflations. If everything rises and drop concurrently including gold, btc, bond along with equities and properties then you know market is out of whack.
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True, with more bears on a sector, it means that there is more untapped potential until the bears turn bullish
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post Dec 28 2020, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 28 2020, 01:17 AM)
In the contrary, for price to rise or sustain, need willing buyers. Bear is not scary, bull run out of breath/fresh money is more fearful.

Bear will turns bullish after tasted blood on the floor.
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Bear will also turn bullish if they FOMO
HereToLearn
post Dec 28 2020, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 28 2020, 08:45 AM)
By definition, fomo joined the BBB/uuu herd.
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Until the bears turn FOMO, I still feel safe to invest atm.

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