The Forces Awakening Against an Antagonistic China
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Throughout the early years of this decade, China rapidly and inexorably altered the maritime status quo in East Asia, wresting control of Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal and deploying a giant oil rig into Vietnamese-claimed waters in the South China Sea.
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In an influential article for the journal International Security, Segal underscored China’s strategic opportunism. He argued that “China’s [foreign] policy will remain softer only if pressure is maintained,” so a constrainment strategy is “intended to tell [China] that the outside world has interests that will be defended by means of incentives for good behavior, deterrence of bad behavior, and punishment when deterrence fails.”
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Today, we are beginning to see the emergence of a “constrainment” strategy against China. Smaller powers like the Philippines have resorted to lawfare in order to leverage relevant provisions of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) against China’s blatant disregard for the very convention it has signed up to (see my analysis of the arbitration case here).
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Non-claimant states such as Singapore, which has welcomed permanent American naval presence on its soil as a hedge against China, have repeatedly called for the resolution of the South China Sea disputes in accordance with international law.
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The core of a constrainment strategy against China, however, lies in the determination of America and its key allies to push back against growing Chinese military presence on the ground, which threatens freedom of (especially military) navigation and overflight in the area.
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China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea — embodied by its notorious “cabbage strategy” and various forms of “salami-slicing tactics” against smaller claimant states — entered an intensified phase throughout the early years of the Obama administration. But for long, U.S. Pres. Barack Obama held back, relying instead on diplomacy and bilateral engagement with China.
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Almost half a decade into the “Pivot to Asia,” the Obama administration has gradually — but with delays and seeming reluctance — stepped up its efforts to directly challenge Chinese expansionism in East Asia. After much hesitation, the United States finally cleared the deployment of destroyers well into the 12-nautical-mile radius of Chinese-claimed features in the Spratly chain of islands.
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But one can’t deny that a storm is gathering against China’s revanchist maneuvers in the South China Sea. The Royal Australian Air Force has joined maritime patrols in the area, and the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces could soon join the fray.
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