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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post May 19 2016, 02:13 AM

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will pass 4.10 tmrw.

BREAKING: Rate hike odds spike across the board after Fed minutes
AVFAN
post May 24 2016, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ May 24 2016, 02:34 PM)
Glad to c MYR breached 4.10 mark today
Trading at 4.120x/4.121x now
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should get to 4.20 later in the weak with strengthening $, weakening crude prices, bsi1mdbshit raining, bursa selloff.

watch mgs yields....


QUOTE
BSI Shut by Singapore as Swiss Start Probe; EFG Takes Over Bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...amid-1mdb-probe

Oil Traders Are Borrowing From Banks to Store Crude at a Loss
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...crude-at-a-loss
AVFAN
post May 26 2016, 07:58 PM

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crude passed usd50 just now, rm strengthens.

where will crude go from here is the trillion $ question...
AVFAN
post Jun 1 2016, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jun 1 2016, 08:57 AM)
1st day of d mth
Hope it can touch 4.20 soon
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think can, in the next couple of weeks.

sgd now 3.00 - good rate for anyone who wants to sell sgd for rm.
AVFAN
post Jun 1 2016, 07:02 PM

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rm is not expected to strengthen at this time.

may float around 4.1-4.2 or lower.

.. weak china manufacturing.
.. usa fed likely to hike rates by july.
.. foreign funds dumping bursa.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...foreigners-sell
.. opec says all is good, auto market, no need to cut production.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...of-opec-meeting
.. gomen very focused on by-elections and hudud, no time for economy.
.. billions lost by xmdb, people happy to accept, gomen ready to borrow more.


do we really think such a set of variables will drive a currency up?!! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 2 2016, 10:49 AM

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if opec meeting today produces a consensus "output ceiling", crude price may soar, rm will appr.

if not, rm will stay low.



rate is good enough, selling some sgd today for expense.

rate today should be around 3.02.

note sgd is now on par with aud.
AVFAN
post Jun 2 2016, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Jun 2 2016, 02:59 PM)
when the meeting will end ? tongue.gif
*
latest:

Live: Saudi energy minister 'won't rule out increasing capacity'

AVFAN
post Jun 2 2016, 10:39 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jun 2 2016, 10:21 PM)
If tis materialize, MYR could hit 4.20 mark
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crude already falling a bit...

Oil extends losses as delegate says OPEC will keep policy unchanged


rm... see tmrw...
AVFAN
post Jun 8 2016, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(BrendonStar @ Jun 8 2016, 08:29 PM)
Can nobody here answer this? Or do you think BREXIT have no relation to USD or USDMYR??
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for fx, brexit is more about uk pound sterling vs the rest.

little impact on usd/myr.

consensus is the vote will be no, majority of brits happy to stay on.

so, a non event expected.
AVFAN
post Jun 11 2016, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(BrendonStar @ Jun 11 2016, 02:44 PM)
With due respect you have got your facts wrong.  Majority of Brit's want to exit
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...d-a7075131.html

From what I understand USD is still the world reserve currency of the world  and a safe haven because currently there are no other currency that have the debt and liquidity to hold the big money when there is uncertainty in the world like brexit. Hence the rise of us stocks due to big money pouring in for safety

If UK stay in the eu London risk losing their status as a financial  hub of the world due to eu ban on short selling in the euro zone. There are more good reasons for UK to exit than to stay.
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that poll was yesterday, shocker for everyone.

ya, i was wrong.

if next poll or actual is opposite, i will be right again. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 14 2016, 04:50 PM

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global equities markets falling.

brexit fears.

fed meeting/rate hike.

wti crude falls from 52 to 48.

1mbd-lost billions saga still raging.



usd/rm 4.11.

sgd/rm 3.03.

place your bets. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 11:52 AM

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brexit or bremain?

results will be known at 5.30am friday.

latest polls in the last few days show yes-no-yes-no... too close to call.

only voting britons will know.



if bremain, global stocks will likely rally, usd will weaken, oil price will gain.

if brexit, stocks will fall, pound sterling will get smashed, usd will rise.

brexit is not the end of the world but will cause high volatility in all markets for a while.

be prepared, in any case. biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 01:25 PM

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most of us will just watch.

but thousands of others will be having a big big night/day, particularly the fx traders:

QUOTE
About $140 billion in cash is waiting to be invested, according to Barclays, and investors’ holdings of cash are the highest since 2001, according to a Bank of America survey.

"Much of the frantic last-minute activity will take place in the hour or two before the early results emerge, meaning that U.K. bank staff will work closely with their counterparts in Asia -– the open market at the time -– to roll or adjust whatever hedge needs to be maintained," said Javier Paz, a senior analyst at Boston-based consulting firm Aite Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...n-brexit-result



AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jun 23 2016, 02:01 PM)
All night long party about to start...
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if u r partying as well, check at 3-4am onwards. biggrin.gif

brexit will be more "violent" than bremain.

usd/rm will become either 4.2x or 3.9x, imo.
AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jun 23 2016, 03:19 PM)
Need to place bet fast as tis is once in a lifetime
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u haven't? laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jun 23 2016, 03:21 PM)
Just placed b4 lunch
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buy usd, short us stocks, short crude - brexit.

buy pound sterling, gold, stocks, crude - bremain.


which one r u? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 23 2016, 07:19 PM

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boys n girls, ladies and gentlemen....

do not celebrate yet at this time whatever u bought or sold, whatever exchange rate u bet on.

my read is the politicians, media, biz and investor community will want and betting on BREMAIN, now pushing stocks, crude, gold prices higher and higher.

some USD200 billion to do this. just for a few hours.



now, if the common and poorer britons decide that is a bad idea, come in full force to go BREXIT, the dismay to financial markets can be significant.

we'll see at 5.30am! laugh.gif




AVFAN
post Jun 24 2016, 01:17 PM

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well, brexit it is.

rm last almost 3% to usd.

rm lost almost 8% to yen - better go buy your japanese car or tv today. biggrin.gif

good news for parents buying pound sterling for their kids in the UK.
AVFAN
post Jun 24 2016, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 24 2016, 01:50 PM)
So usd200b gone down the drain?
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yet to know.

all major markets diving 5-10% now.

trillions may be wiped out in a few days.
AVFAN
post Jun 24 2016, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Jun 24 2016, 06:09 PM)
Wow! From 3.98 yesterday to 4.10 today after Brexit??
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i don't think it's done yet.

the turmoil will go on for a few days at least.

but not for too long.

for usd/rm, it will be about crude price.

i think crude has more to fall after the bremain frenzy oil rally.

i wait for 4.20 to sell some usd.

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