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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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cooldownguy86
post Feb 15 2016, 09:52 PM

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Abg boon apa macam? Waiting for furniture breakout? tongue.gif
cooldownguy86
post Feb 17 2016, 11:32 AM

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Pohuat and evergreen break out liao tongue.gif
cooldownguy86
post Feb 24 2016, 09:10 PM

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Hevea 6cent wor abg boon tongue.gif
cooldownguy86
post Jun 3 2016, 08:08 PM

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Wah abg boon lama no see thumbup.gif

Let me try OKA:
-Net Profit Margin increased from 9% to 13% in latest FY
-Trailing PE is 9, Trailing EPS RM0.13
-Cash is about RM0.17 per share, if exclude cash trailing PE is 7.5
-Perhaps can achieve 10% growth next FY? - Conservative estimate: RM0.13 * 10% growth * PE 10 = RM1.43

A good analysis on the business: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/JTYeo/blidx.jsp

Boleh beli ka? tongue.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 2 2016, 10:15 AM)
You might want to consider several checklist before you trade.

1. Is that an ideal trading setup? You feeling it?
2. What's the catalyst to trade it?
3. What kind of profit am I looking at?
4. What's my risk?

etc etc etc.....

Lol!
You know what my trading position meh?

Export stocks?
The core business needs to be good/improving.
The f-ed up no strength ringgit should not be the deciding factor.
Whats the rfuture risk in the ringgit issue?
If there is a change in gov, how?
If no, how?
etc etc....

Yeah. Hevea core businesss is still good.

Ask gark la about Cb.

How about you look at this stock called OKA.
You can see its pipes all around with the current sewerage projectalp over the city.
Is there a trading opportunity?
*
cooldownguy86
post Jun 3 2016, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 3 2016, 08:34 PM)
Miss me so much ah?
biggrin.gif
*
If got no abg boon then there wont be me mega_shok.gif . Ada apa tipsy lagi? rclxms.gif tongue.gif

Btw hope all is well ya cool2.gif

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 3 2016, 09:26 PM
cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 11:42 AM

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Let's try MYEG:

1. 30% growth for last 3 years
2. 10-15% Q-to-Q growth for the latest 4 qtrs
3. Steady profit margin around 45-50%
4. FCF for the last 3 years - 95mil (FY ending Jun15), 22mil, 34mil
5. FCF to Total Debt Ratio - 7, 1.2, 2.6
6. Increasing dividend for past 3 years if take bonus issue into account

But PE is 43. Apa macam sweat.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 4 2016, 08:33 AM)
So anyway....
finding our own poison very important la...
have your own criteria how your poison should be...

for example...
run a simple checklist...

1. is there 3 year growth? (up to you la... 5 ka, 4 ka, 3 ka, 2 ka....moto ka... all up to you. )
2. is the trailing numbers showing growth?
3. is the profit margins improving?
4. how is the cash flow?
5. run a simple cash/loans comparison table for recent 3 years...
6. how the dividend history the recent 3 years? is it increasing? (sometimes if got bonus issue, u need to adjust)
etc etc....

if you look at current ratio alone...
you run the risk on betting just based on current form...
and the risk of course is that the current form might not be sustainable.
for example Leicester won EPL.  (horay for the under dog)
but could Leicester win again next year?

ps. if got 10% growth next year... should the eps not increase 10% from 0.13?

anyway this is just a simple exercise....
earnings generally across the board is like cow dung.....
very the teruk....
and the market is not EASY for the past few months.....
dun die die trade in a tough market environment cos the market usually will win......
*
cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 4 2016, 12:35 PM)
laugh.gif

I no guru la.....

Not all PE same one.
If use PE alone...
One will die many lives trading them China stocks.

So myeg can buy is it?
*
CIMB say TP 2.80 based on 3-Year EPS CAGR of 63% & CY16 PE of 24.

https://cimbpreferred.com/index.php?ch=121&...8&bb=attachment

My conservative estimate:
FY16 - 5.5cents
FY17 - 5.5 * 1.2 = 6.6cents
FY18 - 6.6 * 1.1 = 7.3cents - PE28 based on current price
FY19 - 7.3 * 1.1 = 8cents - PE25 based on current price

Growth is likely there, but I think valuation abit stretched at the moment. Apa macam sweat.gif ?


cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 01:43 PM

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Litrak also just caught my attention.

There's a 60% Q-to-Q increase in profit in the latest Q due to increased (but deferred) toll rate. Next FY EPS should be at least 40cents. If PE15 then should be RM6. But upside limited.

cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 4 2016, 02:23 PM)
CAGR of 63% !?!

laugh.gif

Once i see the alphabet soup formula...
I usually run far far.

tongue.gif

PLUS would have been a great stock
*
Haha. In the same report Evergreen had a CAGR of 790% sweat.gif

Recently no charts posting ah? Miss your charts leh rclxms.gif
cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 06:18 PM

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Sleeping Beauty vs. Morning Glory

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This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 4 2016, 06:21 PM
cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 06:24 PM

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Mountain Climber

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cooldownguy86
post Jun 4 2016, 06:27 PM

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Calm before the Storm?

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cooldownguy86
post Jun 5 2016, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Jun 4 2016, 07:51 PM)
Storm here i believe it means gonna go down? Or a good storm? biggrin.gif
*
1. USD/MYR depreciated about 7-10% in Mar16-May16 compared to the previous Q (Dec15-Feb16)
2. Rubber price increased about 30%-35% in the same period - http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rubber
My guess is the upcoming quarter will have EPS of 6cents. Assuming PE20 then it's fully valued at current price. But then again I may be wrong sweat.gif
cooldownguy86
post Jun 5 2016, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 5 2016, 09:09 AM)
Since we shown some mountain climbing photos...
I thought about the opposite...
the cliff diving photos....

which reminded me of your statement on GinTonic ....

On one hand if you look at the current photo...
it does look like cliff diving....

user posted image

but if you take a step back....

user posted image
stock started falling in mid Jan.... (which would have coincided with the retreat of the USD/MYR from 4.30+ region)....
which was followed by a Q4 earnings which was flat/slightly lower ...
which probably signaled a warning that the stock beautiful growth would come to an abrupt ending.....

then the stock started giving way a day ahead of its Q earnings release on 25/4/06
if one is a smart trader.....
do you to trade such a stock then?
or if you are holding... would you want to continue to hold or fast fast cut loss?

for me....
this is DEFINITELY not a crazy dip stock.....
stock trading is risky if you do not understand the risk.
*
I would cut when it drops 15% on 25/4/16. Painful but I will. Better be safe than sorry cry.gif

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 5 2016, 03:03 PM
cooldownguy86
post Jun 6 2016, 08:04 PM

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Ini emetall apa macam? Boleh mari lagi ka?

Latest eps 6 cent. But I haven't look at the report yet tongue.gif

Edit: EPS for latest 4Qtrs - 6cents, 1.5cents, 2.1cents, 0cents. Assuming 2cents per Q is the norm, fair price should be RM0.80? If can achieve 3cents per Q then should be RM1.20?

http://nexttrade.blogspot.sg/2016/06/emeta...ipment.html?m=1

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 6 2016, 08:53 PM
cooldownguy86
post Jun 6 2016, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 6 2016, 07:27 PM)
Trading high growth stock has tremendous rewards but once the slightest indication that the growth will end.....
the stock could easily fall the cliff.....
in regardless of whatever fundamentals it has......

Ok..try seduce me with KESM.
convince me why should I buy this stock.....
ps: them abc formula soup is way too canggih for a trader like me.
*
Super low volume. Can goreng fast. Period. Haha

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jun 6 2016, 08:13 PM
cooldownguy86
post Jun 7 2016, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 7 2016, 07:49 AM)
A turnaround stock play?
Can ah?
*
I plan to play small small. Haha
cooldownguy86
post Jun 7 2016, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Jun 7 2016, 11:29 AM)
Looks like Gadang is waking up

Current quarter profit improved by 55% from previous quarter

Currently PE is about 5, ROE about 20%.
*
Good call. Skpetro also looks like a good trading setup. But Fundamentally weaker compared to Gadang.
cooldownguy86
post Jun 7 2016, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Jun 7 2016, 12:23 PM)
Looks like some stocks like Skpetro, gadang, pohuat, oldtown, liihen are waking from their beauty sleep. Maybe better than expected quarter results?
*
Pohuat is fake waking up. Oldtown and liihen already woke up liao so abit too late
cooldownguy86
post Jun 7 2016, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 7 2016, 01:02 PM)
There was some improved esrnings in Oldtown but in general I would avoid the stock if i was an investor.
Not sure if it was the locations but....
I noticed too many half dead outlets..
How can their business sustain?
Ya.. I know...their main source of income from their kopi....
But...wouldn't all these Oldtown outlet hurt their overall profit given its slumping outlet businesss?
The last i eat at any of their outlet was 3 years ago.....
*
Agree. Outlet biznez is a concern. Only good for short term trading hehe

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