pardon me for butting in - interesting subject close to my heart

While i agree that one can't get "the lowest low" & "the highest high"
AND buying LUMP SUM based on "volatility" is a bit.. daft..,
IMHO, there is a statistical / probability way to hedge one's investing's ins & outs.

Standard Deviation (SD in short)
If an investment's cost (usually called price) moves waaaaay too far from it's SD,
then there is a higher probability that the reverse will happen.
In simple talk - some calls this reversion to mean / "return to norm".

eg.
if S&P500 has fallen to below -2SD, probability is high that if one buys then and can hold it,
one's probability to make $ is >95% ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395...%80%9399.7_rule )

eg2.
of course, the reverse is also true
if S&P500 has risen to above +2SD, probaility is high that if one buys then...

Again no 100% probability lar
but, hey, it's like a lelong or crazy cost vs value gauge.

The only issue is - does one use 1yr, 3yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs cost or price data to calculate the SD
Vs current cost or price?
Personally - i look at 1yr, 6yrs & 9yrs SD
Gives me a good idea of recent, the mid and the longer term.
Then i buy MORE (on top of my value averaging) or i buy LESS / divest & move into another investment heheh

Just a thought and open to bettering the concepts above via ding-dong (argument, discussion, blah blah )

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 7 2015, 04:52 PM

Bro, don't be coy lar - i know U know but, for the sake of clarifications on my own thoughts:

1. SD is used as an indicator of volatility by some folks.
Note - i don't consider volatility per se, it's just movements to me

2. Normal market?
depends on the "normal" from which point of view lor
1 year movements?
5 years movements?
10 years movements?
Note - some fund houses and folks tend to state the 1 year's "average returns"+/- XX%

---
so.. whatcha think on how to better invest (with higher probability) other than plodding along with DCA/VCA
+ juiced via SD?
or other methods of cost vs valuations?

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 7 2015, 05:48 PM

a kid will cost at least $500K (birth to 3+1 Uni) leh..
not too logical to save pennies and be killed by the pound

Just like some flers spouting this / that Act (section this, subsection that)
BUT does not share the impact + options/solutions
VS
practical
BUT your mileage may vary

i prefer the later's approach - "action-able", rather than lalaland ivory tower stuff

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 16 2015, 11:34 AM

Like "buy-side" stock analysts' analysis?
hehe - no "sell", just "hold" even if Enron or WorldCom

-deleted, double-posted-

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 19 2015, 11:33 AM

People virgin AND want to be spoon-fed mar.

FAQ states something to the effect
"that the purchase price will be the END OF DAY price for all transactions completed/done before xx.xxpm"
also - susah to understand lar, YingGlish lar.
Blame to Gomen

Bottom line, entire concept of:
a. trailing/end of day NAV - thus NO NORMAL HUMAN KNOWS when purchasing
b. focusing on purchased COST (not price/NAV since it's unknown yet when orders placed & $ paid)
c. purchased COST is shown in FSM after NAV is known the next business day or two (foreign funds mar - GMT+/- concept)
is lost on virgins.

is good is good.. more sacrifices to the altar of (greed*lazy)^blur

like Flower sellers always say "Say it with a flower / bouquet"?
& Jewelry sellers always say "Diamonds are forever"?

i've serious doubt on that "report" too.
i'm waaaay above 37 and i'm not even in the "million dollar roundtable" yet in my unit trusts.
i think it's the statistics being reportedly skewed by the English used.

breakdown:
a. 16% of surveyed respondents have earned their first 1 million at an average age of 37.
b. More than two-thirds of Malaysian millionaires surveyed have earned their first RM1 million by investing in unit trusts.
c. At the same time, it is the most popular investment tool chosen for those who are still on their way to their first RM1 million.

Thus, (a.) statistically may be correct - 16% hit their first 1 million at average age of 37.
Statistics - average is severely affected by tail-ends' highs/lows. Median would be more accurate

For item (b.), it may not be an extension of (a.) - readers may assume it is and/or "purposely" put such way
ie Yes, > 2/3 of millionaires surveyed earned first RM1 million by investing in Unit trust
BUT... U sure those 2/3 hit millionaire status by average age of 37?
hell - it may be 50-60

For item (c.) - duh, everyone and their dog can be on their way to their first RM1 million
AND the most basic vehicles are FD and unit trust

Just thinkin' - statistics are correct, just the presentation/intepretation & usage may not be too correct

Skim cepat kaya?
like some fellows trading UTs or aiming to game the NAV by looking back (US market GMT slower than us ma) into time?

Must be moving ton$ of $, else may not be worthwhile VS the costs & work

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 21 2015, 03:27 PM

glaring problem, well for me living in the real world and some other fellow forumers pointed out,
"earning" 1 million <> "having" 1 million investment assets.
usually it's faaaaaaar from it since i've to eat, rent, drive, massage, etc

IMHO - it is good, as a start FD & UT, but there are better vehicles if one were to learn a bit more
of course, unless one is a business owner - then yeah, UT only since focus is business.
worker ant me prefers to make it my biz to learn & explore other vehicles as well.

The more "real" part to me in that article was:
Disparity between risk and expected returns
The home bias investment could be a result of high yield expectation as some investors expect a return of up to 24% when investing in Malaysian equities. However, such high expectations does not necessarily come
with a higher risk tolerance with when they are only willing to lose average 12% of their invested capital.

ie - i think they are saying most of us think Malaysia-equity focused UTs SHOULD return 24% (per annum?) and we only expect 12% possible losses. Even casino owners don't get those odds bwhahaahah..

Reference: http://www.eastspringinvestments.com.my/do...roved_Final.pdf

more volatility, more chances for value averaging ma
or for some, trading

er.. bro, 15% increase in NAV overNIGHT...
that's a statistically VERY IMPROBABLY HIGH movement, thus, yes please sell & lock in profits.
However, realistically have U ever seen such in a UT or Mutual Fund's NAV, overnight or even 2 nights?
Maybe during the ASEAN currency crisis after 2008's lowest plunge, then next day bleep up i believe.

Just curious whether U've noticed it happening in reality or just a % to discuss when to divest.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 23 2015, 03:38 PM

nice...
i checked the fund's chart (NAV data only goes back to July on FSM), looks like there was a huge spike in May & Jun 2015.

er.. clarifications:

For the "Nobody gives a SH1T" package: 2% MAXIMUM up front (dependent on Normal, Silver, Gold, Platinum) and 1% or RM 25.00 per switching whichever is larger.
Sometimes, FSM when biz is down, may give you for a limited time 0% sales charge.

also, the mollycuddling and handholding may be by a guy, not a gal
thus, your mileage may vary

Pink is Singaporean lar - SauseMah what ar?
the "copyright" is only for Malusians

Typical produce of our broken ahdoi-ka-shun (education) program + handouts/crutches program.

Salute the bros & Pinky repeating the same thing again & again (good stamina from Vietmoi? ) when it's obvious 101 basics.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 28 2015, 10:54 AM

much better & more effective ways at releasing stress than typing/expressing thoughts ya know..
pho pho - "more efficacy"

flexi mortgage (re-drawable online/ATM anytime)

me also leh - still owned by bank

er.. how to bestow knowledge other than: Seek (the books + practice/model in Excel) and Ye Shall Find /Gain
Below = shared to clarify certain required items/variable + books

For clarity:
In pragmatic terms of "Easy to do/execute" & being mentally screwed (ie. no fear / no greed)
DCA < TwinVest < Value Averaging < Value investing

1. DCA - put in blindly every period, put in same amount
can be totally auto

2. TwinVest - every period, dedicate same amount but put in different amount based on VCA+DCA
semi-auto with tiptronic
http://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Stock-Marke...ywords=twinvest

3. Value Averaging - every period, dedicate same amount but put in OR sell depending on calculated expected value VS held value
http://www.amazon.com/Value-Averaging-Stra...s/dp/0470049774
manual 5-speed

4. Value investing - any time (but best to base on asset allocation structure), any amount, analysis & valuation of company's fundamentals, etc.
manual 8-speed with NOS button-manual injection

definition of:
a. "every period" - set specific time, eg. every month, 2-months, quarter, 4 months, bi-annually, etc
b. "put in" = invest/spend
c. "dedicate" = put aside the $ for the program, may not be used yet
d. "expected value" = dependent on your value averaging program's dedicated amount -cost +expected growth per period
e. auto, semi-auto with tiptronic, manual 5-speed, manual 8-speed with NOS button-manual injection = gives an idea of how changgih it can be BUT human execution/decision can lead to weird stuff like no execution (fear / paralysis through analysis), over invested (NOS button) thus can win big or kaboom big short term, blah blah