er.. IMHO - yes, best to apply valuations & good business/investment principles in personal life as well

eg.
good partners are trust worthy, share similar visions, blah blah
good partnerships are built by...
good productive lives have good "resource" allocation & planning, with contingencies
children should be grown properly before released to the world - like spinning-off business subsidiaries
etc
etc.

Good base.
Please add in cost & expected returns % pa
Reason: Long term, these 2 variables will impact the value averaging program/formula/value big time
Simulate with and without, with a random up/down price or NAV movement in Excel, you'll see the impact easily in 10 years or more

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 28 2015, 08:53 PM

Clarifications - i seefood-eatfood (ie. the hunger...), not sifu of anything except maybe swallowing food

I've tried (not simulate - did with real $) DVA monthly Vs quarterly Vs 1/2 yearly.
IMHO - quarterly or 3x/pa is the sweet spot

Reason: monthly gyration / movement is minimal for mutual funds (needn't believe me - just look at any indices, even in 1997-1998 & 2008 fall & subsequent year's rise)
BUT
if U checkout the quarterly to 6 months' variations...
AND
it is "work" lar doing it, unlike DCA,
THUS
best-bang for effort IMHO (i'm aiming for "efficiently lazy") = "3mths-6mths per execution" as the program's periodic buy/sell (yes, DVA can incorporate even SELL)

How to calculate? er that example (link) shared by fellow forumer just a few posts ago shows how
If want to make more realistic:
1. Reduce the expected or control value by buy/sell commissions/charges
2. Add the period's expected returns - eg. say i'm a pessimistic optimist, thus i expect 7%+pa CAGR long term average and i execute 2 times pa, thus simple expectations (not exact yar) is 7%/2

Er.. i'll need to dig out my Excel for a snapshot view if U can't visualize the above.
Sorry ar - switching in/out of this posting VS watching US market.. - maybe later will dig if needed.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 28 2015, 10:16 PM

er..
the commissions/cost of transactions should be minused from your dedicated per period amount or control amount.
the growth expected should be added to your dedicated per period amount or control amount

gimme some time - need to clear up stuff first before sharing the ZIPped Excel & snapshot to share the thought/execution process.

Simulation: VA for Titans - every 3 months, put aside $900 then calculate what to do & how much
Notice
1. It is like DCA where one limits one's $ every period? This is a "limited exposure" VA method vs bottomless method.
2. Row 40, 42, 44, 46, 47 no buying (Col S) coz value held (Col E) >= expected or control value (Col L)
3. Row 45 SELL (Col S) coz value held (Col E) is >= Sell trigger (Col P), which is 1.5x of expected CAGR for this simulation




Simulation: VA for KLSE - every 3 months, put aside $4K then calculate what to do & how much
with changed cost of purchase, cost of sales, expected returns & trigger to sell (ie abnormally high CAGR returns)



Attached ZIPped XLSX file for U to play with.
Notes are inside the formulas themselves like:
+N("see here why")
Feel free to criticize the logic - to make it better.

oh gawd.. i need zzz.. old eyes are bugging out looking at those Excel simulations..

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 29 2015, 11:39 PM


Attached File(s)
 VA.zip ( 673.72k ) Number of downloads: 35

huh?
not for buyers now
but for current holders & sellers of stronger currency-based equities right?
or unless we're thinking with similar IQ-level of certain Tourism Minstrels

sorry - confused, read the post before yours + yours and i went like "whuh..?"
need more coffee...

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 30 2015, 08:26 AM

heheh - direct marketing ke?
keep in mind, that $ minus admin & cost + GST + company tax...

i lagi DIRECT contribute to my own dividends. been nearly 7 years since i bought new shirts, slacks & t-shirts

Anyhow, back to investments.
There are talks of 2 SG REITs being possibly delisted and listed back in Indonesia.
sigh.. these are the things that sometimes make me question why i didn't stick to simple mutual funds..

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 30 2015, 01:34 PM

Brazil & Russia
Balls of steel?

not at lelong or -SD2 or 3 yet (SD = standard deviation)

proper investing is suppose to be boring
trading & gambling is exciting

U sure U want to complain about "boring" 10 days movement portfolio?
U make get what U wish for..

OT:
shh... don't scare it off (CVX)..
not jumping for joy yet (ie haven't skinned & BBQ it yet) coz it's not like 100% to 200% net profits (incl div) yet.
i'm more of an investor when it comes to individual company stocks - hold at least 3 years+ or more if bought right.
psst psst.. still holding that PBank i bought at $7+ in late 2008/early2009 heheh..

kids these days don't read "Dont Sweat the Small Stuff - and it's all small stuff"
+ "7 Habits of Highly Effective People" (start with the end in mind applies here)..

heck, most old folks i know doesn't read/practice the above too,
else most lives will be clear & simplified

er.. just playing the devil's advocate:

All this switch here there
VS
lump sum & zzz (see screenshot)


May not be worth the effort & time..
Note - i purposely left a few transactions to "ride" (ie - no screwing around, just let it ride)
The results are as above

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 9 2015, 04:43 PM

U have obtained clarity of simplicity.. ohm...

er.. seriously, IMHO,
IF one was to buy investments based on asset allocation AND one is ever accumulating savings from biz/work,
hitting the rebalancing trigger is TOUGH unless some kaka hit the fan OR extreme greed OR a swing between both.

note - i don't believe nor practice the once a year or 1/2 year or whatever time to force a rebalance.
statistically it doesn't make sense, especially if one is still working for $ & channeling some into investments.
Mine's a % over/under of the planned %, then only i forcibly rebalance.
Hasn't happened much over >10 years due to value averaging & value buying + savings into investments.. twice only if i remember correctly and one of them was due to EXTREME bonus heheh (thank U bosses! toad not worthy..)

your mileage may vary - no right/wrong, just wong

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 9 2015, 10:24 PM

er.. bro.. if i move $100K around "just like that",
that means that $100K is just a small part of my total assets.
thus.. $2K or 2% is still chump change leh.

Just thinking.. heheh i don't move $100K "just like that" but a few Ks got lar
and the 2% also i don't sweat it.. coz i get lower than that

whoa.. wei.. stop making me eat dead cats please
.. wheres my cold-steel machete...

ahem.. whenever i see "The end of..."
usually that's when things start to turn around

also.. whenever i see "The new..." or "The bestest...'
that's usually a few months before kaka hits the fan for those

dunno lar - it may be just me

--additional info added--
Brazil is in the shitz - more than 40% down within 1 year and if U count longer.. whoa..
PE-wise close to 10 (based on braz's ETF, EWZ) if i'm not mistaken
can check using finance.yahoo.com

Russia is ALSO in the kaka due to oil + political shenanigans (but that fler has grizzly balls of adamantium)
PE-wise.. 5-ish based on russ' ETF, RSX if i'm not mistaken
can check using finance.yahoo.com

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 11 2015, 06:06 PM

U ar.. dang cow misleading words and initial pix from the video lar

brother.. UTs / Mutual Funds aren't stocks, FOREX, options or futures trading lar
your reactions seem similar leh..
have a plan, work the plan, tweak a bit here/there - 5 to 35 years neh
RESPOND not react