Looking at M1.. ~6% yield..

I think that the 4th telco issue is overblown..

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 29 2016, 05:00 PM

Saizen is not delisting yet because they have performance guarantee ( 5% in escrow account) to the buyer for six months after the property is sold.

Saizen will return the bulk of the money to shareholders (95% of selling price) as capital return, pay off the remaining accrued rentals as final dividend and then six months later IF there are no claims or repair cost exceeding the 5%, they will pay out the final remaining money after all expenses and will promptly close shop by delisting. Saizen have no intention to become a cash company.

The thing is that saizen sold to new buyer exactly at NAV, so it is important to hold properties at below NAV value.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 1 2016, 10:43 AM

It depends on the contract... some sales have no performance guarantee, some sale is LSB type..

The problem is that they are selling of a whole bunch of buildings (in good rentable condition), and the buyer is a hedge fund, so they are not going to inspect each building one by one. The performance guarantee to the buyer is just a formality, i think there is high chance to recover the amount unless there is major maintenance.

Total payment proposed as follows

Special distribution: $1.056 (Mar 16)
Normal distribution: $0.031 (Mar 16 - Rent accrued Jun-Dec 2015)
Escrow account: $0.0895 (5% performance bond - July 16)
-----------------------------------
Sub total: $1.1765

Post completion expenses: $0.0118
Cost paid to manager: $0.0042
-----------------------------------
Sub total: $0.016
-----------------------------------
Total: $1.1605

Post completion distribution: Rent from Jan-Mar 16 ~ $0,014

Based on current price there is still some arbitrage value, depending on the normal distribution and escrow account.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 1 2016, 11:23 AM

Very likely will be approved.. you must consider that the share was trading at around 0.85 when the deal is announced. Who does not want that kind of windfall?

No one knows how much of the escrow accounts are available once all the claims is completed.

The guaranteed payment and dividend = 1.07. Any extra after that will just be a bonus.

Lol.. the calculation is all there for everyone to see. You have to consider to take risk or not only.

Current price is 1.10

If escrow account is not used AND 1/4 of 2016 dividend is paid you will earn 7.45 cents

If escrow account is 50% used and 1/4 of 2016 dividend is paid you will earn ~3 cents

If escrow account is empty and 1/4 dividend is NOT paid you will LOSE 3 cents

So consider the above.. and waiting time is about 6 months to completion

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 1 2016, 02:21 PM

Better to lose opportunity rather than lose money..

Margin of safety is important..

There will more opportunities in the future, market is roller coaster right now.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 2 2016, 12:05 PM

Anyone got trade SGX CFD here? 10:1 leverage..

Yield is not everything, yield can change if the underlying business factor change. If the earning is increasing, you can more or less bet that your yield will increase, but if the earning is suffering, you can bet the yield will be less in the future. If a company cannot earn enough money or having a loss, how to maintan the dividend?

It is more important for you to analyze the underlying business and deduct if there is sufficient margin of safety. Margin of safety is not just as simple as PE, PB, DY, EV/EBITDA, FCF etc... as these are all moving target and the business change.

True margin of safety is that IF i buy this business now, AND if things go south, how far south it can possibly go, what is my safety factor?

Just my 2 sen..

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 2 2016, 01:11 PM

Seems like a lot of SG bank fans here.. here I give you all some data to make your own conclusion..











Source

If you need to hold cash longer term, but want some return can try to hold in ABF SG Bond ETF (A35). Current yield is 2.32%.

But short term, be mindful of trading cost.

Got bad experience holding too much cash during 2014-2015.

Being too liquid can be painful if exceed 6 months.. especially in SG, as the FD is pretty poor. As least MY FD is more palatable.

Been there done that, so 2016 strategy is to try to get nearly fully invested, with opportunity fund in more stable instruments. These instruments will be sold off if need cash to invest.

See if it works out.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 3 2016, 03:30 PM

I am investing in a few countries, with 4 different brokerage. For Sg I am going for passive income investing. It will be roughly 60-70% REIT and 30-40% yield stocks, my target blended yield to be 8% with 90-95% invested (5-10% generated from dividend to subscribe future rights ).

This is still a plan tho.. most of my holding is still in cash . For investing in other countries I am going for capital gain.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 3 2016, 04:17 PM

SG is my safe haven.. IF anything happen to Malaysia (touch wood).. can still run there and live off my investments.

That is why it is important for me the brokerage is in SG.

Anyway no need to thank me, its my pleasure to help.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 3 2016, 04:22 PM

China dont have much REITs, HK have quite some reits but lower yield. So is japan and USA low yield too.

Haha everyone treating SG as their emergency bolt hole. Malaysia sure got bad reputation..

Diversification is good to reduce the overall risk of your portfolio, but if you hold too much, it can diworsesify instead. Holding too much stocks, will tend to cancel each other gains out.

I stick to 10-20 stock max for all my portfolios.

If your portfolio is growing like a wild bush... time to trim some.

But then again, like you said, your stocks, your rule.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 4 2016, 10:43 AM

If you want to trim look at your portfolio, are there like 2-3 items which performs similarly ie. same industry, same business etc? Study carefully and then choose one. If you want diversification within industry then choose 2 max.

Example if you are holding like 4 OnG related stocks, study carefully and choose 1-2, sell what you think is not going to perform and consolidate to the new positions.

otherwise your portfolio will move like the STI.

Anyway just 2 cent, you do what is comfortable to you. Not necessary you have to follow one.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 4 2016, 11:04 AM

No hard and fast method.. if the counter reach overvalue, then sell, if undervalue then buy.. metrics like PE, DY, EV/Ebitda is useful but just part of the consideration.

Uncle Koon KY has an even simpler method, if the stock can make more money next year then buy, if not then sell.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 4 2016, 11:03 AM

Wow.. 80% capital loss, playing penny stocks ah?