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 SGX Counters, Discussion on Counters in the SGX

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AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 11:53 AM)
Why No. 2?

i have some stocks which are cash rich and churning cash to sustain high dividends.  biggrin.gif
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ok if they can manage debt levels yet keep profits high to maintain high yields.

i just don't think they can for long in current and coming conditions.

just my general thoughts, not referring to anything particular. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 01:45 PM)
There are some gems out there with a hoard of cash and free cashflow and with great dividends policy!
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hey, share their names here la...!

no point discussing and share nothing. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 03:44 PM)
Ohh...i missed this post.    laugh.gif

The stock i alluded to was Panamy. It seems the market has always overlooked it.
Cash per share last i looked was approx Rm9.
i have been receiving dividends since i bought in 2009 at MYR9.70. Dividends have paid for my purchase.  biggrin.gif
Of course the yield is lower now. But 6% is not too shabby seeing that it's sustainable.
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panamy as in panasonic msia?

if bought long time ago with >10% dividend then, that's good.

but if bought 2 yrs ago, rm lost 25%...?

6% yield now... what if rm declines further...?

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 02:46 PM)
There are reports now going around now that the SGD will weaken till about 1.4416 against the USD (Channel News Asia today),... I have been waiting for such events - they NEVER come.
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i had always thought it will be 1.40-1.45, so that's ok. tongue.gif

all the latest news i get point to 2016 as much the same like 2015 but more of the same - commodities will either stay low or sink further. equities will be muted, volatile, bankruptcies to increase. won't be pretty.

not a time to be bullish, a time to conserve and preserve. and hold yr usd close to yr chest. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 06:34 PM)
That's a difference of SGD1600, or MYR4800,...why do you say that you can accept that range without problems ? I would tend to start noticing the difference when the exchange rate starts moving between 1.40 and 1.42...

Hmm,...holding the USD close to my chest, that's what I've been doing,...sadly sad.gif , have not found any worthy instruments to buy till now. And holding USD cash is NOT really productive.
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sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.
AVFAN
post Dec 23 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE
HSBC has projected the yuan to be devalued further to around 6.7 to the US dollar by the end of 2016.
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...sure/?style=biz


against usd... if rmb goes to 6.7, sgd will likely go to >1.45.

AVFAN
post Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 23 2015, 07:03 AM)
Good morning, AV,..I opine that the SGD has a silent peg to the USD. It wouldnot want to follow the USD too hard with the rate hikes on the cards, but I think if the RMB should fall too low, the SGD certainly wouldn't want to cap itself too much, just to 'please' the RMB. After all, Simgapore does not really depend too much on exports anymore,hence wouldn't need to get into a price war with China.

Against the RM,.. I think the Sgp Gov't has an even lower wish to affiliate itself with. Look at the way the SGD appreciated against the RM this year when the USD hammered the RM,..

Judging from the news these few days and after the US has put in the certainty of a rate hike, I really don't know if the RMB and the RM will drop to previous lows in the near to medium term. Commodity rout/oversupply is still there, but the commodity currencies may have 'decoupled' from the prices of commodities.

Some O&G-focussed counters have started to decouple too.

A good eg to look at is the behaviour of Keppel Corp in the last few days. Oip price dropped the last few days but Kep Corp's price stayed.
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hansel, if u missed any of these...

crude <36.
china continued poor data reports.
north korea hydrogen bomb test.

result:

usd/rmb 6.555
usd/sgd 1.434
usd/rm 4.391

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2016, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 6 2016, 09:37 PM)
i dun think KEPPEL CORP can return to its glory days unless we see a sharp rebound in oil price...
and future, we are seing ELECTRONIC & SOLAR energy powered vehicles.. hence a slow down in being reliant on O&G.
Even simple task like using OIL FOR FRYING (palm oil not crude oil).. IS BEING replaced by AIR FRYERS..
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i don't mean to be cruel...

but i don't see crude price going above usd40 for next 2 (TWO) years. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 7 2016, 10:15 AM)
Blood all over today.

Stocks in my radar:
Keppel almost 6, singtel 3.5, sembcorp 2.8 , singpost 1.5, st eng 2.8x
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ya, nothing is spared...

only consolation is sgd/rm = 3.08.
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 7 2016, 10:36 AM)
what u shopping today?
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no... i will wait...

will consider adding to keppel dc and capitamall if price goes below my last acquisition prices.
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 11:42 AM

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year of the fire monkey!

user posted image
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:01 PM)
sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.
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here we go:

QUOTE
Singapore Dollar's Slide Approaching Band Limit, Barclays Says

January 7, 2016 — 12:18 PM MYT

Currency fell to six-year low as China cut yuan reference rate

Singapore’s dollar slid to a six-year low after China’s central bank reduced its reference rate for the yuan by the most since August. Barclays Plc said further declines are set to slow as the island-state’s currency is probably close to the bottom of the central bank’s policy band.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...t-barclays-says

AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:44 PM)
Do not buy yet...
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crude 32.20

dow futures -300





who still wanna buy/keep oil/energy stocks? sweat.gif

many M&A deals coming in 2016, i think.
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:52 PM)
2008 / 2009 has come again,.......I can officially declare,.... similar sequence of events, conceptually, compared to back then,.........  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

No more dillying-dallying the drop anymore....
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that will be scary, not many will have the guts to see it thru. biggrin.gif

dow shed 45% over that period. sweat.gif


AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 09:59 AM

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china is really giving worldwide investors and punters a wild ride. biggrin.gif

the cb u-turn appears to have provided some calm at open.

crude, dow futures also trended up at china open.

gotta watch a bit closer as it is capable of 3-5% swings on any day.



and this, if it kicks in, will give it another wild ride:

QUOTE
Sources: China wants quick, sharp currency decline

China's central bank is under increasing pressure from policy advisers to let the yuan currency fall quickly and sharply, by as much as 10-15 percent, as its recent gradual softening is thought to be doing more harm than good.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/sources-chi...cy-decline.html

AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 11:06 AM

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all sgx is deep red today...

reading these, it looks like more to come.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/goldman-sac...to-persist.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/asian-stock...orries-oil.html

worldwide stocks down, oil down, commodities down, all but 2 currencies down.

i see only 2 things that stay high or going higher - USD and YEN.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2016, 11:07 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 11 2016, 01:35 PM)
so buy JAPANESE REIT?
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that, i can't say. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 13 2016, 10:33 AM

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i'm selling my singtel.

net of 2 rounds of dividends, small loss.

sgx looks weak, worldwide also weak.

better hide under reits or keep usd. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 14 2016, 09:11 AM

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i failed to sell my Singtel yesterday at 3.59.

today will try 3.55. sad.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 14 2016, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 14 2016, 03:20 PM)
Keppel will NOT die. But maybe hibernate for a while.
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if it is about o&g sector, the question is for how long...

we have yet to see mega M&A's for this sector - oil cos, oilfield services, rig builders, support services incl logistics...

i will not put any money in this sector for some time.

not until it has come full circle.


AVFAN
post Jan 14 2016, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 14 2016, 03:44 PM)
Yeah

There are lots of excesses built up over the last 8,9 years. They are beginning to unwind. many companies will go under and be eaten up.
Had lunch with my friend just now. Told me Premier oil of UK went from 4 to 0.28 !

Many will have liquidity problems. Shell is trying to rid of its smaller operations in Malaysia presently.
Many mergers will happen. Halliburton wants to merge with Baker Hughes.

Understand Keppel invested heavily in their shipyards the last 5 years. It may weigh on them.

Have some popcorn. Show is just beginning!
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this industry is heavily capitalized, more so with the days of $100 oil.

big entry/exit barriers.

it will take years for it to consolidate completely.

we ain't see nothing yet!

stay far far away.

just enjoy cheaper petrol! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2016, 03:52 PM

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