The market never learns. This is what i learn from investing over the last 30 years.

Fear most invariably takes over even the most seasoned investors unless you are WB. There are many traders in the market whose philosophy is probably conservation of principal. On op of that the margin calls kicks in at the worst times
Bear in mind, investors can demand withdrawals from funds which may trigger the avalanche.
And at the tops of markets, you can be certain that funds are more than likely to be over invested with low cash positions.

i happen to be lucky that i was out of the market in 1998 since 1990.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 22 2015, 03:06 PM

Ya, pls share the rock solid dividen stocks name here... Thinking to add more in 2016...

Ohh...i missed this post.

The stock i alluded to was Panamy. It seems the market has always overlooked it.
Cash per share last i looked was approx Rm9.
i have been receiving dividends since i bought in 2009 at MYR9.70. Dividends have paid for my purchase.
Of course the yield is lower now. But 6% is not too shabby seeing that it's sustainable.

What's your average price of Kep Corp? Mine was at 6.68, still in red now. I will keep buying at this blue chips counter if prices continue to fall and collect dividend looking at the current yield at 7% abv.

panamy as in panasonic msia?

if bought long time ago with >10% dividend then, that's good.

but if bought 2 yrs ago, rm lost 25%...?

6% yield now... what if rm declines further...?

i had always thought it will be 1.40-1.45, so that's ok.

all the latest news i get point to 2016 as much the same like 2015 but more of the same - commodities will either stay low or sink further. equities will be muted, volatile, bankruptcies to increase. won't be pretty.

not a time to be bullish, a time to conserve and preserve. and hold yr usd close to yr chest.

Well, if it is, as you said, the mkt never learns, I can see one effect here right n front of my eyes that deviates from what you said, my friend,.. Oil price has dropped so much since the beginnning of the year, commodity prices have dropped so much, Feds has begun to hike,.... but, hey,... the mkt hasn't dropped back to what I saw back in 2008/9,... why is that ?

I just find it very, very hard to catch the right price this time round,... unlike back in 2008/9,... why is that ?

Not good, I'm afraid, I bought Kep Corp when oil price was around USD40/bbl,... my average price is at a hight pf $7.28. But fortunately, I did not pour everything into it,... so, I'm just waiting to average down now.

I wondered if Kep Corp hs bottomed out for an oil price floor of USD30/bbl. Why do I say this,.. ? ...becos these few days, when the price of oil dipped further to USD34/bbl, Kep Corp stayed its position, and then slowly appreciated,...

Well,...AV,..I think it would be general knowledge that anybody who holds Msian assets in the MYR would suffer in terms of purchasing power, unless the investor made a very big margin from that instrument.

Let's take USD40K :-

a) if the exchange rate is at 1.40, USD40K will bring you SGD56000.

b) if the exchange rate is at 1.44, USD40K will bring you SGD57600.

That's a difference of SGD1600, or MYR4800,...why do you say that you can accept that range without problems ? I would tend to start noticing the difference when the exchange rate starts moving between 1.40 and 1.42...

Hmm,...holding the USD close to my chest, that's what I've been doing,...sadly , have not found any worthy instruments to buy till now. And holding USD cash is NOT really productive.

Edited by adding : have been watching the Mandarin Oriental Hotel closely, becos this counter is denominated in the USD, and it has a very, very consistent dividend payout. Anybody knows about this counter ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 22 2015, 06:39 PM

sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.

Good morning, AV,..I opine that the SGD has a silent peg to the USD. It wouldnot want to follow the USD too hard with the rate hikes on the cards, but I think if the RMB should fall too low, the SGD certainly wouldn't want to cap itself too much, just to 'please' the RMB. After all, Simgapore does not really depend too much on exports anymore,hence wouldn't need to get into a price war with China.

Against the RM,.. I think the Sgp Gov't has an even lower wish to affiliate itself with. Look at the way the SGD appreciated against the RM this year when the USD hammered the RM,..

Judging from the news these few days and after the US has put in the certainty of a rate hike, I really don't know if the RMB and the RM will drop to previous lows in the near to medium term. Commodity rout/oversupply is still there, but the commodity currencies may have 'decoupled' from the prices of commodities.

Some O&G-focussed counters have started to decouple too.

A good eg to look at is the behaviour of Keppel Corp in the last few days. Oip price dropped the last few days but Kep Corp's price stayed.

Yes.
If Rm goes down, i would think it's exports would perform better?
Fact, i bought into export companies last 6 months and they have been outperforming like crazy, eg the elctronics, furniture sectors

Well, 6% is still better than FD rates.

The reason being in 08/09, there was a sudden crisis in Lehman.
As i wrote here?, that this time they are controlling the market by the QEs, where they are pumping it directly into the markets. Therefore we may see at worse, a deflation of all things. That's what the Feds are scared of. They can get their inflation up and companies are not showing good numbers. A tell tale sign.

If ISIS blows up the white house, my scenario will happen. A sell will be on. Right now, it's a slow grind. Of course, now you have the China factor as well, which was absent in 09.

i think Keppel is not wholely O n G dependant. Their shipyards service many other vessels as well.
They still have a big section of property, investments in communications, etc

Maybe that's why the effects of O n G are almost fully reflected in their price by now.

against usd... if rmb goes to 6.7, sgd will likely go to >1.45.

Question for us is : Where will MYR go in tandem to China's deceleration and oil fall?

Yeah,...what you said could be possible,...the market is now beginning to view Kep Corp's other business sectors now. When oil price started to fall, Kep Corp's price moved in tandem with oil price.

Haa,..if 1USD can buy >1.45SGD, I'll be the first to rejoice. My bond coupons will be worth more in the SGD, and subsequently, if I should exchange any of the SGD coupons back into the MYR, it will be worth even more.

There was a gap down yesterday in the SGX, round about in the afternoon when China activated the circuit breaker after the stocks fell by 7%. Almost all REITs and stocks dropped by around 2%.

As of this morning, everything went back up again,.... is the mkt starting to look resilient ? Decoupling from China too ?

Has anyone look into Sembcorp? Yielding ard 5% and its price is almost @ 5year low...

I'm starting to study Sembcorp MARINE, at current very low price, the yield is around 7%....It's a multi-year low price. But I'm still not able to tell if this counter is still coupled to oil price.

Sembcorp Industrials is not in my radar yet.