Yes, but not the same, msot of India isn't exposed to US while China is directly affected. There were articles of the debate sometime last year regarding this issue published in SG business news. However, many do agree the different between China and India, the key different is that China has many direct exports to US whereas, India doesn't. Since last year chinese toy export was hit as issue surfaced due to high % of lead and harmful chemical found in toy exported to US, worse was to come when Chinese FOOD esports were equally hit so much so that many items were removed from the shelf including those in SG. A survey from US had it that, US can't live without China due to low cost imports and cheaper pricing as compared to their local production.

Not forgetting, CHINA now has investment in US buying into banks where hardest hit by subprime issue. India is banging on domestic demands just like China, but where is the US effect? So far, I can't say so for chinese equity fund for now as its folllowing the rest of Asia, but not Indian's fund. Yes, market analysts had warned that Indian funds had run up too much and are focusing on China for 2008, but its anybody guess.. Just look back in the past, I still remembered reading in the press about analsysts quoting Thailand funds were bargain compare to the rest and worth buying into (2006-2007). What happen? Due to its political problems, it hardly surfaced as the top pick and true enough, it wasn't even one of the performing funds. Instead, India (60+%), China (50+%), and then the surprise of the pack, Malaysia was among the top index moving with some 30+%

Whether China can move as quick as it used to be is another issue for now, unlike in 2007. Observing the index swing almost everyday, I am not so sure that this year, chinese index will move as fast as it used to be (I am not saying it won't rise). Don't forget, its no longer the beginnning of the bull run.. Its into the 5 or 6th yr of the bull run... can any market sustains long term growth without ever pausing? I doubt. I am learning my lesson from my past investment mistakes and equally learning too... how market sentiment can simply change the entire trend.. Until that day when investors say, enough is enough, and started buying.. you never know when the market will turn up again.. much less recession fear is gripping everyone for now and even FED is considering more agressive interest rate cut for the next meeting.. which means... something not right is happening.. but stop short of saying what... US president is also trying to perk up the market due to coming GE... same thing like in MY now... BUSH is coming out with all sorts of feel good effect to be implemented... something which is well known... whenever GE is near. So market is really what is suppose to be now? I don't know, but I think I will likely pull out for now .. and wait for calm to return.


This post has been edited by bbmars: Jan 13 2008, 11:12 PM

To me, whether India will be another China. is not important. What is important is do you have the guards to dare or dare not invest believing in what you think should be. Do you believe the story of India or china? I know, I had people telling me all sorts of things. If you believe, invest in them. Else, don't. I am am not so sure for now... So I am holding back all my UT investment except thosed already committed and pending further action as I am wondering what's up with the market as new reporting season is about to begin, but I am not so optimistic about it.. I had already sold out all my stock position at the end of last year as I was anticipating something, but not sure what it was... I would rather clear my position because I doubted. However, I won't dare say anything for now but I am watching not just the Indian market, but any UT that can shine even during rescession like what I did in 2001, where all else were sinking and bleeding, but the Korean market was rising like hell fuel by local demands. So there might be some gems to pick up too.. Besides, bonds could be another alternative which I had made some during the recession...

This post has been edited by bbmars: Jan 15 2008, 12:50 PM

100% or even more? yes, but not sure it will happen in MY given the limited funds available. Besides, don't think it will happen for now unless after another recession and the cycle starts to uptrend again. Then, maybe there might be chances of such rise even within a single years. You can read some of the thread posted here sometime back about that kind of return...

It was reported today in ST, some states in US are already in recession while those with the strongest economy are still holding out. Further to that, another article mentioned that sometimes, whatever figures that was generated seems out of syncronisation.. contrary to whatever statistics indicated, but in actual fact, its already in or has begun. Likewise, when it begins blooming, some still believe in the slump as figures indicates so.. Therefore, you get some mixed signal here and there.

I know of some stock on STI that had gone up between 200-500% within a single year. Good example, Wilmar, I think Malaysian should know... something about Malaysian tycoon Robert Quek's deal sometime last year, BIG news in MY. This is something which I will remember because I missed out on this due to my stubborness and also given up after 2 weeks when it was trading at $0.99 up till $1.14 (End Dec 2006) . Then shot all the way till just last week, $5+/share.

I too make some nice profit of ~60 - 120% in several stocks in 3-4 months tiem frame. However, like some one said, do not expect this kind of return. Even for myself, I believe I was lucky and fortunate, although partly due to doing some home work. My colleagues said, I DARE to invest, but I stop lost check, should it turn wrong. Its painful to suffer lost, all the more, make quick decision to cut lost -- reduce/minise lost.

Now I am waiting if there is really a recession. Bad as I may sound, for whatever goes up must comes down. So to me its more another opportunities to invest and make $$$ when the dust settles down. Of course, who woud like recession, but I guess that's how I can increase my profit and enhance my retirement plan.

This post has been edited by bbmars: Jan 19 2008, 12:14 AM

Actually I believe Wilmar was running up because of China effect. Else where, especially in EU, there is already report about Biofuel price running too high and people started considering whether Biofuel is really an alternate source since its as high as oil prices, not forgetting further investment into biofuel related stuff... Already, I had already read few such articles and people are thinking what's next... really to continue? Now that China has pull the plug, we see Wilmar diving. Not sure what will happen next... any gem to recommend during this period? I am sitting sideline and just watching, totally out of everything now... just waiting for the next upswing to come.. When? will be watching

I am not sure what's provided for UT in Malaysia, however in SG, service provider provides UT buyers with chart and some form of tools for analysis. I am long into UT, but buying in and selling out over a certain horizon period. Say holding for few to several months and then selling off... wait for correction and go in again... if nothing really matter, will just hold for long period of time including the correction unless there is a reversal in trend like now. ... but will buy back when the timing is right or when I am more comfortible with the situation.

To me its a matter of timing. I had done this several times over the last 8 yrs. My last selling, before Dec 08 when oil price cross US$100..... and I had been waery of data coming out of US and was aware about 2008. So in 2007 some where towards the end of the year, I was already monitoring closely. then decided enough is enough... sold all my holdings including stock. I believe if you spend some time and do your home work, there is hope, like myself. In SG, UT is available online and charges is as low as 1.5%. So I don't need to go to agent to buy any and let them earn my commission.

I had learn my lesson over these several years of investing.. However, I tend to have better of luck in UT investment except through agent where I lost quite an amount but can't do anything. My last sell off for UT, I lost something like SG$1.5k in 3 funds averaging 10%. seeing something not right in hte market. I am still tracking these funbs because my online service provider provide benchmark lost tracking update via email.... I am glad I sold... average lost for these 3 funds is >20% (biggest lost >40% for 1 fund)

Whatever is written in that article, although make senses, I don't really buy that story because if I can do it, so are you. Its unlike Stock, you can't rush it... but certainly, you can do is watch the trend. 2007 UT investment profit for me ~ 15% and that too was after a correction, highest ever UT profit, 69% in <1 yr (total ~$15K)... If I hold on to it.... I think its all gone case now... You be your own judge and decide the next best action.... Sometimes, its wise not to see too much into what you loose, once sold, move over and forget it. try another time buy when market sentiment turns for the better,. you can always make profit again to cover lost... but remember, you will decide when to cut lost and take profit.. thats what I had done over these 8 yrs.

Loose some $$, hoping to buy lower when prices drop further. To hold on?.. when it bleed further and loose even more, then buy more to average the pricing? yes and no... decisiveness is important to further reduce lost... like what I did.. there is no perfect formula, but its all but YOU