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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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yok70
post Dec 4 2015, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2015, 10:59 AM)
dow lost 250 pts. european bourses dived too.

while crude recovered amidst volatility and pending opec meeting today, it did little to help oil/energy counters.

japan and china red today.

if opec meeting comes to naught and the fed jitters continue, selloff again tonight. sweat.gif
*
it's one of those "sell first think later" decisions like what Don always said. biggrin.gif
make sense though since it's quite heavy on uncertainty now....OPEC + Fed.... cool.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2015, 12:40 AM

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revisit of 08-09 low possible....32-33?.....

ya, saudi wants to "prove" he is right, this policy can kill shale. He got the pride to win. Well, pride, is kind of fatal character, be it win or loss. cool2.gif

ok, correction. Just google, it said "On December 23, 2008, WTI crude oil spot price fell to US$30.28 a barrel" cool2.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2015, 12:42 AM
yok70
post Dec 5 2015, 01:10 AM

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suddenly good news is good news.
rate hike is good news. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2015, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 02:33 AM)
it is somewhat twisted...

dow up 2%, crude down 3%.

maybe monday will see selloff, due to "rate hike fears". biggrin.gif
*
highly possible biggrin.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2015, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2015, 01:55 PM)
we wait n see... laugh.gif
good jobs report = almost certain rate hike on dec 16.

crude closed 40.14.

one report i read says "sure" it will fall further... 38.50, 37.70...?
*
if it break down 40 barrier without any positive news (very unlikely to have one), i guess it will go much lower of fear coming from even expanding oil production (iran coming, saudi say no to cut) next year. Saudi really wants to kill more shale companies at least for next year, a big gamble placed.

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2015, 11:18 PM
yok70
post Dec 7 2015, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Dec 7 2015, 11:35 PM)
A good evening to all ....

western experts are out to forecast 32....then 20+.

what a dip ! cant remember when was the last time it hit 38+, 0r <38 !!! rclxub.gif
*
ya, these experts follows the trend and forecast like a smart ass. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 8 2015, 01:48 AM

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speaking of energy alternative, battery technology is improving significantly lately that's why we are seeing electric cars being produced from Tesla, and more coming. By the use of batteries, power consuming will be reduced significantly too.

As we understand, global warming issue has been discussing for decades, but not much improvement and support coming from the world. However, in recent few years (especially late 2 years), the situation is getting really bad and world powerhouse countries such as US and China are working harder to it. We know a lot of technology was being invented far before they are being expose and actually applied to everyday's live. Meaning, technology goes far beyond our daily life. So, when the super powerhouse high tech countries such as US, Japan and now even China are all putting their effort on this issue, time for us to see a big jump on environmental friendly energy technology can be far sooner then we could imagine.

Well, these are the things in my mind if we try to find the other side of story regarding oil energy role in future. However, probably not, probably oil will stay for another 100 years because it's still the most economic (cheapest to produce and highest margin for companies). We never know. Economy and politics are always stick together as one.

ps: one weak point about crude oil is that, it really has not much use beside to be used to generate energy. Without this "business", it is dead. Not worth then mineral water, definitely.

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 8 2015, 01:51 AM
yok70
post Dec 8 2015, 02:43 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2015, 02:36 AM)
took some xle at 61.60 earlier, hope to get some profit by fri. tongue.gif 

dare not take uwti... i need to sleep now. biggrin.gif
*
longing energy etf is also very daring move. sweat.gif biggrin.gif
chicken out unless it corrected 20% or so.... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 8 2015, 02:44 AM
yok70
post Dec 8 2015, 06:40 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 8 2015, 03:05 AM)
On the technical side, XLE seems to be making its 8th waves from the last lows in Aug.
That 60 support is the level to watch for and see if it can bounce up or not.

The last 4 trading days been quite a huge move (downside). The last gap in Oct surge also got filled.

Triple bottom or another leg down? 

But, I can also see Head and Shoulders formation: left shoulder (Aug-Sept), head (Oct-Dec), only right shoulder hasn't formed yet...

Anyone seeing this also? hmm.gif
*
ya, a weaker right shoulder than the left shoulder, however volume is quite equivalent. Lets watch that 60 support, guess it's a break or rebound point. If break down, it's gonna be deep. On fundamental side, i don't see anything positive for oil companies right now. So, where to find positive sentiment for them to rebound? that's my question. Well for stocks, fed rate hike could be a catalyst though, lets see if this could pull oil stocks up or not. cool.gif
yok70
post Dec 9 2015, 01:52 AM

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lets watch if it could go 32-33.... cool2.gif
yok70
post Dec 9 2015, 05:31 AM

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no strong bear spotted yet.
hmm....if it won't appear before 16th, high chance good news is good news once again, rally into new year.
still 7 days to go. we'll see.
yok70
post Dec 9 2015, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2015, 09:15 PM)
for xle:
*
my friend said XLE gives good dividend, wondering what's its yield at current price.
yok70
post Dec 9 2015, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 9 2015, 10:49 PM)
Around 4.75% if calculated based on yesterday closing price of 61.60.
But, since it has lost more than 10% YTD, the dividend yield may not mean much here for those energy companies in this ETF. No end in sight in oversupply of crude at this time.  The latest comments from IEA chief for 2016 outlook still quite bearish for crude.

OPEC won't do its job to control production to limit prices from falling but letting free for all just to gain market share.
Like that, bears will continue to play and swim in oil here.  biggrin.gif
*
Thanks. Wow, that's quite high.

32-33 could be its next target....we'll see. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Dec 9 2015, 11:28 PM

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another day of weak bear it seems....lets see how it goes later of the day. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Dec 10 2015, 01:20 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2015, 12:23 AM)
this is not good...
*
the fear is back.....lets see how it ends today, looking bearish a little..... cool2.gif
yok70
post Dec 10 2015, 02:34 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 10 2015, 01:48 AM)
err...

all red... crude back to 37.

lucky i ran fast. sweat.gif
*
dangerous before 16th. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 11 2015, 02:27 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 11 2015, 12:24 AM)
Day 3, XLE recovers $3... step by step despite crude hanging around $37.
I think there is a chance to see $64-$65.  That would be my grouper meal too. Wish me luck.  sweat.gif
*
sending you all my luck. rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif
yok70
post Dec 11 2015, 06:19 PM

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HK index broke down support, looks like investors don't want to risk the weekend, actually the fed 16th. Next week's close will be interesting, the week after will be even more interesting. Totally unpredictable. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Dec 11 2015, 10:49 PM

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turning fierce.... cool2.gif
yok70
post Dec 12 2015, 01:55 AM

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quite a show. friday usually double the fear. laugh.gif

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