Aug 20 2015, 12:36 PM
Good morning all. Tuesday was all about the UK and a stronger CPI reading. GBP rallied although it
closed well off its best levels. EUR suffered from a generally stronger USD, but held support at 1.1020.
Today, it’s all about the US, with both CPI and the Fed Minutes from their July meeting being released.
The CPI data is especially important as the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on reaching a 2% inflation target.
Any weakness will surely set back any proposed hike in rates. On the other hand, any strength and the
USD will most likely rally.
Aside from the afore mentioned data, the rest of the day is looking quiet. Asia barely measured a pulse in
terms of activity! Europe wasn’t overly exciting either. Some early USD selling emerged as EUR had held
1.1020 and GBP 1.5645. EUR got to 1.1070 and GBP to 1.5695 but by the time NY walk in we are back
at 1.1040 and 1.5660 respectively. XAU nudged above 1120 as much to do with safe haven buying amid
concerns for emerging markets as anything else. Oil has remained a little firmer, opening at $42.85 in NY.
AUD, NZD and CAD have a familiar look about them, and are only a spread or two away from yesterdays
close. Equities in the Far East were mixed with the Shanghai Index regaining 1.24%. The Nikkei (-1.6%)
and Hang Seng (-1.3) both closed lower. Our friends in Europe followed the mostly negative trend with
the DAX down 1.1% by the NY open.
So the scene is set for one of the most important US data releases in recent weeks. The market is looking
for a 0.2% increase in both the headline CPI and the Core CPI (excluding food and energy). As we head
into the data EUR is 1.1045, GBP 1.5665 and JPY 124.35. Both the headline and core monthly numbers
come in at 0.1%, but the year on year numbers are as expected. There is also a jump in real earnings of
0.4%. EUR spikes quickly to 1.1075 and USD/JPY down to 124.10, but these are very short-lived and
before long we testing 1.1020 again. It seems like the market is really trying to take the positives out of
any data release right now, but on balance this is a wash. 30 minutes after the release, we are back at
1.1035, 1.5660 and 124.40.
The next few hours are spent drifting around in mainly directionless trade with the only exception being
yesterday’s standout, GBP. Maybe too many people long from higher levels yesterday, but whatever the
reason, GBP/USD slowly dips from 1.5660 to 1.5635 and GBP/JPY cracks support at 194.50 heading to
194.05. That is quite the retracement from yesterday’s move after UK CPI. If you remember, we traded as
high as 195.30 again. For now that is going to be good resistance and 193.45 support.
Oil, having initially traded up towards $43, plunged below $42 on higher than expected Oil inventories.
This sent equites into a spin with the DJ down as much as 225 points at one point. The DAX ended the
day down 233 points just above major support at 10650. As we head towards the Fed minutes, Oil
continues lower heading towards $41 and equities are barely holding on! Then the real fun starts! EUR is
at 1.1060, GBP 1.5660 and JPY 124.25. As you will have noticed from the economic calendar I attach
every day, the Fed Minutes were due at 14.00 NY time. 2pm. Well some bright spark somewhere cannot
tell the time! The release started at 13.36 with the following headline.
*MOST FED OFFICIALS IN JULY SAW CONDITIONS FOR RATE RISE NEARING
Forex Version XVI, Foreign Exchange Market Discussion
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