QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 11 2015, 06:14 PM)
I know your poison.. you like to play bagger one! Traders Kopitiam! V8
Traders Kopitiam! V8
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Sep 12 2015, 09:06 AM
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#21
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12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
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Sep 12 2015, 09:08 AM
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#22
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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 11 2015, 08:18 PM) abg gark, would low coal price still contribute to TNB bottom line? coz I think they now have imbalance cost passthru program that pass back the cost variances to the customers Coal has been dropping for the past 1 year... your electricity rate got drop or not? Cost pass through mechanism protects TNB if sudden rise of fuel cost, but if reverse.. it goes down much slower. |
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Sep 12 2015, 12:54 PM
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#23
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 12 2015, 11:36 AM) Sure the risk i can take.. risk is not much to me if there's a return.. but if there is a return. I'm not asking anyone to show me how they make money.. but how they know how much to spend. I understand how salaries and FD works - you get RmX.. you spend RmY.. you save RmZ. Next month, same thing happens Lol you are as confuse as they come to stock investing... 1st time i see such argument But if you are trading.. you make RmX today.. what is the Y and Z ? end of the month how do you pay your bills? Never mind I will feed the troll... By investing you are attempting to do as below.... You get RM X from your salary .. you spend RM Y and INSTEAD of saving RM Z , you INVEST them. From the investment of RM Z, you invest/trade/speculate (or whatever that floats your boat) and get gain .. or loss.. repeat and rinse, while keep adding to your RM Z from your monthly extra. It still stay as RM Z.. it does not goes away.. unless you lose it all..but highly unlikely if you have stop loss strategy. You WILL win and lose from time to time.. the trick is to make sure you win MORE than you lose and thus will get gains. As the RM Z snowballs get bigger .. so does your net worth. No questions on how to pay your bills here.. and .. never play margin. By putting all your money into FD, you WILL lose purchasing power over time due to inflation.. and or the recent flavor of the day.. currency debasement. It's a slow and painful.. but unseen death. This post has been edited by gark: Sep 12 2015, 01:03 PM |
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Sep 12 2015, 01:06 PM
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#24
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 12 2015, 01:03 PM) Yes kind of confused Always have an emergency fund.. i would suggest 6 months salary in savings, FD or bond fund. Never to be touched. Also to be adequately insured, i would suggest medical plan, term life, PA and maybe house insurance depending on your needs. Never buy unit linked insurance plan or over insured.. thats a road to the poor house.Not a troll just confused lol OK but what if you have an emergency (like if your house burns down, or you lose your job in a downturn or whatever?) Investment can be a huge word, it does not necessary mean only stock market.. it includes FD, Bonds, gold, funds, ETF, property and stocks, each has it's own merit. Heck there are people who invest in art and wine.. Not all is suitable for everyone. Even for stocks there are different combinations, REITs, growth stock, dividend stock, value stock... I have a combination of all the above in different percentages. This post has been edited by gark: Sep 12 2015, 01:10 PM |
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Sep 12 2015, 01:45 PM
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#25
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 12 2015, 01:29 PM) Ok so you are basically saying that if your house burns down and you lose your job you can survive on that for the rest of your life? Emergency fund is to tide you over for short term.. you can always look for a new job. You cannot work forever right? Otherwise if your investment can give you decent income, then we live on our investment, that is called financial freedom. Or worse case you can slowly liquidate your investment (within 6 months) to tide you over if required.. So why do you buy what you buy? like that other guy said "if you bought Frontken at 0.17" but what makes someone think "I'll just buy Frontken at 0.17" ? So the stocks and bonds that you bought, what made you buy them? Different people have different strategy.. i cannot comment on others. You must have your own convictions, not every investment is suitable for you. I for 1, will not buy until I have done in depth study on a stock or it fits my overall stratergy. I buy them so I can get capital gains to grow my net worth/income generation potential instead of relying on monthly paycheck, it is one of the ways to get financial freedom. And also as you get older you move your capital gain stocks more into income generating stocks/bonds which is less volatile to 'fund' your retirement. |
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Sep 12 2015, 10:00 PM
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#26
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 12 2015, 07:41 PM) But what if you can't find a new job? what if you are involved in an accident and lose a hand? Is this the case of cannot read or dont want to understand? I have already said please get adequately insured in the past posting. Anyway god forbid if i lose my job and hand tomorrow, my investment income is more than enough for my family to live on.I see. The problem is that I have done some serious studying in the local market, and i have not found, over the past 30 years or so, an investment that will consistently provide better-than-FD yields. In most countries yields (even for stable companies) are much better than FDs (or CDs) but here yields for stable companies are typically lower than FDs. Take for instance the US - CD rates are 0.5% - 1.5%, Yield for something stable like Con Ed is 4.17%. In the UK FD rates are the same, but yield for Royal Mail is 4.46%. In KLSE yield for Tenaga is just over 2%, Pos Malaysia I think is about the same.. but FD rates are 4.2%. So what is the case for yield investing in the KLSE? Past 30 years? LMFAO! If you had just put your money in a good blue chip like pbbank, your yield on cost will be likely double digit %. Not to mention triple digit % capital gains. Come on no need to brag on us or uk stocks, you are not the only 1 who invest internationally. |
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Sep 12 2015, 10:02 PM
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#27
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Sep 12 2015, 10:08 PM
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#28
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Sep 13 2015, 02:28 AM
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#29
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 12 2015, 11:41 PM) Nice.. which is why I should be learning from you i guess Compared if you put the same amount in fd.. how much did you get? Crunched the numbers. If you bought 1000 shares of PBBANK in Jan 1984 (31 years ago), after a lifetime of investing you'd have made over 2,400%, which sounds impressive until you realize it's Rm24,458 or about Rm788 a year, Rm65 a month. So basically you made Rm65 a month for 31 years. Is that considered a good return? I don't have a model for DCA yet though. Your number crunching account for the dividend reinvestment as well? This post has been edited by gark: Sep 13 2015, 02:34 AM |
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Sep 13 2015, 12:04 PM
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#30
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 13 2015, 09:36 AM) No idea.. FD rates were quite high then.. around 7 or 8%.. Try calculating it.. take 8% and gradually back to 4% .. see how much you get Nope.. it's pretty basic for now, maybe later. Psst.. if you are so hard up on yields.. i can get you 12% FD in Indonesia PIDM equivalent guaranteed. Interested? This post has been edited by gark: Sep 13 2015, 12:21 PM |
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Sep 14 2015, 09:32 AM
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#31
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Sep 14 2015, 09:33 AM
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#32
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 13 2015, 01:30 PM) Wasoshoweeeeiiiiieh !!!! Geng! So how do I make money trading the stock market? Be a better trader lor... How do I become a better trader? Ermmm...... I make sure I get better tipsy from ........... Ah Gark! » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « This sifu.. very de bad.. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « |
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Sep 14 2015, 09:34 AM
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#33
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Sep 14 2015, 09:35 AM
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#34
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Sep 14 2015, 09:55 AM
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#35
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Ok.. here is a back of hand analysis for Consolidated Edison split adjusted.
Price in Sept 1985 =$19.75 Price in Sept 2015 = $62.39 Dividend in 1985 : $1.20 / share Dividend yield in 1985 : 6.07% Dividend in 2015 : Est $2.60 / share Dividend yield in 2015 : Est 4.16% Estimated total dividend received in 30 years = $57 per share (Back of hand calculation, lazy to go through 30 years of Q data TOTAL RETURN per share : ($ 62.39 - $19.75) + $57 = $99.64 If you have invested in 1share of Consolidated Ed in 1985 with $ 19.75 you will get a total return of $ 99.64 in 30 years Total Return % = $99.64/$19.75 = 504.5% / 30 years = 16.81% ... emmm not too bad lah. But USD leh? Ok ..ok it's USD wor! So in 1985 USD/MYR rate is 2.443 in 2015 USD/MYR rate is 4.3.. So including Forex gain (Lets assume he keeping the dividend for 30 years in USD) Total Return including Forex % = ($99.64 x 4.30) / ($19.75 x 2.44) = 889.09% Total average return per year = 889.09 % / 30 = 29.63% impressive! Well Done! Congratulations! But if dividend taxes are inputed and he did convert some USD to MYR.. then the picture will not be so rosy... But then hor PBBank he calculated has 2,400% return over 30 years.. and he claim it is rubbish..stock.? So please make your own conclusion. Last post i will make on this argument.. over and OUT! This post has been edited by gark: Sep 14 2015, 10:06 AM |
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Sep 14 2015, 10:20 AM
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#36
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Sep 14 2015, 11:26 AM
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#37
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Sep 14 2015, 03:18 PM
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#38
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 14 2015, 02:31 PM) See now you get it. But now he's gone and killed the RM, it's crazy undervalued now, do you want to take the risk that he might quit and then what happens to the RM? in any case even if he doesn't, don't you think chances are good that it will appreciate once his term is over? LMAO! Cheh wasted my time writing an analysis.. Also about PBBANK.. I'm a scientist, I go by facts not opinions. Just calculate total return for PPBBANK, compare with Con Ed.. then you will see which turned out to be the better investment in the end. I already compared PBBank to Con Ed 30 years total return.. including dividends received and forex differences and PBbank performed better.. I repeat.. 30 years Con Ed TOTAL return = 889% PBbank Return = 2,400% Burn that into your mind... This post has been edited by gark: Sep 14 2015, 03:27 PM |
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Sep 14 2015, 03:20 PM
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#39
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 14 2015, 02:28 PM) LOL.. i have written the bank info in the last post..Really wondering if you have selective reading problem, just want to read what is 'right' to you and ignore the rest.. |
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Sep 14 2015, 03:22 PM
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#40
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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Sep 14 2015, 02:46 PM) Okay I just went onto the Bloomberg Anywhere just now and I have a set of data. For woodenus, if you successfully guessed the two blue chip companies, then good job! If not, I should disclose my two recommended stocks, YTL and KLCC Stapled. Nice analysis.. oooo a bloomberg terminal.. I want one of those! But before we get down to the numbers, I would also like to point that PBBANK, as the others mentioned is also quite a well-offed company. They have been giving out dividends as frequent as Consolidated Edison. So without further ado, I should first compare Public Bank vs ConEd and of course our KLCI. Note: All companies' prices and dividend prices are changed to USD to transparently prove which gains are consistently higher or lower. [attachmentid=4946184] For this example, I will turn back to 1987. As you see, ConEd in prices is only up a mere 216%. On a long term scale, it is weaker than pitting the KLCI in terms of gains although this data excludes dividends. Now let us take a look on PBBANK, increased 20 fold since that date itself! It is definitely a strong fundamental stock to begin with. And assuming, you held it since that date itself, for every U$1,000 invested in the stock and exited today, you would have gain U$55,668.50 for every RM1,000 invested. And that also factors in USD adjustments, gains could be higher due to the currency but observe. Now you must telling me, "Stop with this PBBANK", "Other than PBBANK...". I will show you other than PBBANK, let us look at my recommendation, YTL. [attachmentid=4946198] Once again, this stock outperformed ConEd by a mile. But observe again, this stock is up 42.5 times and 75.5 times including dividends since 1987. Now assuming you sold it in 2013, you could have U$120,000 for every U$1,000 for every gain. Magic no... Now still not convince with KLSE stocks, I will give you another of my US company that I also favoured. But in this time of economy, you will be shocked to find out which company. Loved that since the day I went into the game in 2007... [attachmentid=4946204] First of all, no. I am not trolling. Seriously this is also a good pick. Assuming you own this once again since 1987, you will have gain nearly tenfold and 28.17 times. For utility companies which of course depend on commodity prices, this is also one well of a good stock with dividends as well. Now take a look back, PAVREIT has an average return of 6.7% annually since its debut listing and KLCCSS outperformed at 9% with dividends. And as someone mentioned earlier, US non-alien residents are not subjected to capital gains but is subjected to 30% of dividend tax. I am also a newbie on the KLSE to be honest in terms of playing with real cash but I have experienced real trading on the NYSE with someone else. We played AAPL, PCLN and even WFC. Take it this way, even you want to play dividends with good return, one must have patience and understanding of the stock market. You can say that the losses I made was also due to that factor and it is extremely important. If you are also not insecure about it after this, sign up and play with US markets. In fact, I might be joining one soon to play with options and to diversify my investment. But by all does mean I am leaving for good just that I might be more active in that market given wider opportunities. Have a nice trading day. DISCLAIMER: I do not currently own this stocks and am only active in this field for nearly 8 years and also a noob compared to the others. And I took a long time to write this until I lost keeping track and opportunity of the C12 gaining 2 sen after mid-day break. You working in the finance industry? |
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