The horse book is essential for punters....

However.....

The best of best horse book reader ....
Might not be able to win consistently... .



....and that's the fun of horse racing !!!

After no reach so low...people will f him....
And then....
If fall lower...
People will also f him.....

Errr... I read Hevea's notes before... so I am not sure about your point.....

For me, I would look at the financial cost stated in the income statement in the company quarterlies...
I would look at the size and the trend...

for example, you look at airasia...
last showed it paid 151 million in financial cost...
last year same period it paid 118 million....

what does it say?

Heveaboard...
last quartely showed financial cost is 629k (thousand hor... not millions)
last year same period it paid 1.370 million.

what does it say?

and then I would also note at the size of the total debt...
is it increasing or decreasing?


anyway you should have noted from Hevea quarterlies....

The profit before taxation ("PBT") of the Group for the reporting quarter was RM14.60 million, an
increase of RM6.81 million or 87.46 % as compared with the corresponding quarter in 2014. The much
higher PBT was contributed mainly by the improved performance in the particleboard sector, despite
being impacted by unrealised exchange loss of RM2.97 million from the translation of the USD
denominated term loan

edit: copied the wrong one....

Particleboard Manufacturing Sector

The revenue reported for this period increased by RM10.39 million or 27.9 % as compared to the
same period last year. The higher revenue achieved was due to the achievement of higher volume
and higher average selling price from sales of higher grade, value added products and
strengthening of USD during this reporting period.

The profit before tax reported for this period was RM 7.62 million as compared to RM 2.05 million in
2014, an increase of RM5.57 million or 271.26% despite being impacted by unrealised exchange loss of
RM2.97 million from the translation of the USD denominated term loan.


A lot of good performing companies stocks...
declined significantly recently....
you just have to ask if it is the stock or if it is the market?


ps: regarding Alex comments...
if you are not aware....
many like to refer to his comments and even charts...
but it's so ironic...
cos if doesn't come true...
he get whacked..... a lot... even in this forum
so know know la.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 13 2015, 10:02 AM

You think it cannot sustain?
You sure you read the notes?

anyway interesting...
and thanks for sharing your different view


I do not like to buy just because the market is at a lower level. (surely there's got to be a better reason to TRADE a stock, yes? )
I believe this is such a fallacy to buy a stock just cos the stock price has fallen....


anyway, different people, different posion.



my point on Alex remains....
it's not whether a pinch of salt....
it's more of understanding his points of view (which may or may not be correct....

I say cos I have witnessed silly postings blaming him on his views....

blaming others when lose money cos one traded based on others opinion is plain silly.

Yes, it has an impact BUT if you read the last quarterlies on the SEGMENTAL reporting you should be able to see.

1. When did profits started improving for Hevea...

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/223900.jsp

go to segmental...
keep track on partical boards and RTA profits...

2. See the next quarterly...

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/229175.jsp

The profit before tax reported for this period was RM1.29 million as compared to loss before tax of
RM0.35 million, an increase of RM1.64 million or 472%. This was achieved despite an unrealized
exchange loss of RM4.68 million in this reporting period as compared to an unrealized exchange
gain of RM4.49 million in the corresponding period in 2012. The unrealized exchange gain or losses
arises from the translation of the USD denominated loan

compare to the one I posted earlier.... (ie http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/262473.jsp )

what did you notice?
the exchange loss decreased from 4.68 million to 2.97 million (last quarter)
correct me if I am not correct....
cos that info would have suggested that exchange losses DECREASED despite the STRENGTHENING USD.
correct?

and the next few quarterlies tells the same tale...
Profits increased more and more....
and mind you... this as we know.... is on the back of a strengthening USD.....
so I might be wrong again....
but it suggests to me...
that despite the exchange losses, Hevea is able to produce better profits on the back of a strengthening US...
this is my opinion laaa...


and if take the time and compare...
there is one huge significant difference...

which is..........................?

The RTA business slumped..... almost half the profit...
BUT....
the particle board business.....
has now jumped from losses to 7.6 million profit.
that's the marked difference...

now... particle boards... (yeah... I know.... not exactly the same... ie particle board , chipboard and fibre board is not same)
where the happy family?

what other 'board' stock is listed?
Evergreen and Mieco.
Look at the recent profits trend?
what is it suggesting?

my 3 sen opinion la...
and please I hope no dumb dumb will so irritating and turn my 3 sen opinions as stock tips.

it's just a statement that the earnings trend is up for those companies....
and as usual nothing more nothing less....

I sell fish one bro...
I do not believe in giving fish away....

Forex sensitivity analysis is based on assumptions of data input.
Sometimes, it can happen, the data can change due to unexpected conditions.....
When that happen, the analysis might not be as accurate as hoped for....
For example, if one studies Homer sensitivity report on the rising USD, One would find that Homer is actually performing better than what the analysis suggested....
It happens....
Having said that, I do find the sensitivity analysis reports kinda useful....
At least, we understand the potential risks...

I had also mentioned not 'investing' in ONG stocls too.....




ps:
one is either a trader or an investor or even a hybrid mixture...
it's all about choosing one's own poison....
but whatever the choice...
one better know what they are.....

Not bad!

Question:

Why point 1 is considered a PRO?

Are we deep taught that whatever has fallen equals value equals good?

I believe the price drop because the market feared that it will purchase power plant at a highly inflated price...

And with such a purchase, it woud weaken its balance sheet cos such a purchase would incur heavy financing...

Which goes back to what I always say....

Whenever a stock price drops...
It doesn't mean it is a good stock....
It's a fallacy to assume such...

Sometimes stock drop for a real reason...
And the reason is caused by a negative catalyst that might hurt the stock for a long time.....

Jumping in early.....
It's usually not a prudent idea...
What appeared cheap now could nr evev cheaper...

Look at Parkson.....
At 2:00...
Those using poor yardstick like 52 weeks low...
Might assume the stock is super cheap...
Some more the stock got buy backs...
Look at the stock now......

..... and then Ah Boon post 3 stock charts he did NOT buy.... how then?

Shit.... time to hide myself...... from you..................................

Great stuff.
Hard work usually pays off.

Comments:
1. I rather myself to be more pessimistic... it's like I rather err on missing out than I err on being too gung ho.

own poison hor...

2. Fair value calculations...
I am a trader.
I rather search for a strong catalyst stock than an undervalue stock....
for one reason... undervalue stocks.... it's meaningless for me...
because ANY given stock can be undervalued....
it does NOT indicate the quality/strength of the stock...
stocks goes undervalued for several reasons...
sometimes... a depressed market.... tends to cause a lot of undervalued stock... and when that happens, perhaps......maybe ok...
however.... sometimes.... it's the own company under doing that makes the stock cheap...
or simply put.... what is cheap does not mean it is good...

again... I am a trader....so whatever poison suits.... ok?

Historical PE....
it tends to be skewed....and goes to extremes if the markets is at the extremes too....
hence... it is not that meaningful....
and since PE itself is complex (ie forward earnings? ttm earnings? Fiscals earnings? ).... so we need to be damn sure the source of the data....

and then.... BJAuto itself... was just listed end 2013....
and with such a short listing time frame.... I really think Historical PE yardstick for BJAuto to be not meaningful.....

and with it.... the 20% CAGR .... I find that to be a rather optimistic figure...cos too little data.


err.... just some short long comments from a trader la.....

anyway.... keep it up dude....

I can understand GHL...
I can also understand why IFCA...
but MPAY? LOL!!!..... why?

LOL!!!!!


you sure ah?

Yes... the news flow is there.... but the risk you have to take is news flow is news flow...

sometimes... there's always a chance the news flow tak jadi one....
which is sometime I think most are aware...
this awarded this and that...
few years later...
take jadi pulak...
recent example? best example I believe is Smartag.
I made several comments... but because the majority had vested interest.... my comments became unpopular ....
anyway it happens... ok? (ie ... meaning... not to say...this will be the exact case for MPAY)
just hope you understand the risk.....
and in the market....
I feel one should never be too optimistic and neither should one be too pessimistic...
balance is needed....

besides news flow...
to bet .... long term on a stock such as this....
I feel one should take into consideration...
what kind of company MPAY this is....

ie... it's like a horse...
if you bet on it to win....
you need to see the horse track record before betting, right?

ie... the track record has to be taken into consideration... yes?

and so the question, for me, that I have to ask ....
is.... what kind of company is MPAY?
how has it performed the last few years since listing?

my blunt answer?
mpay has performed like shit...
it's barely making company....

which is why...
if you want me to be on it...
I have to ask...
is this really the best horse to bet on?






ps......just my 3 sens of angin la...
if you are confident that your reasoning is sound enough....
go ahead dude....
make the bet.

LOL!
Just take my comments as a second opinion (nothing more nothing less) la....
as always...
my opinions might be too pessimistic or wrong....

Morning.....

Woahhhh.....



how to clean-kan?

LOL!

my platform from other brokerage house shows.
You should highlight the issue to Mayban Securities.