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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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wodenus
post Sep 12 2015, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 12 2015, 01:06 PM)
Always have an emergency fund.. i would suggest 6 months salary in savings, FD or bond fund. Never to be touched.


Ok so you are basically saying that if your house burns down and you lose your job you can survive on that for the rest of your life?

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Investment can be a huge word, it does not necessary mean only stock market.. it includes FD, Bonds, gold, funds, ETF, property and stocks, each has it's own merit. Heck there are people who invest in art and wine.. Not all is suitable for everyone. Even for stocks there are different combinations, REITs, growth stock, dividend stock, value stock...


So why do you buy what you buy? like that other guy said "if you bought Frontken at 0.17" but what makes someone think "I'll just buy Frontken at 0.17" ?

QUOTE(gark @ Sep 12 2015, 01:06 PM)
I have a combination of all the above in different percentages.  wink.gif except art and wine LOL!


So the stocks and bonds that you bought, what made you buy them?
wodenus
post Sep 12 2015, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 12 2015, 01:45 PM)
Emergency fund is to tide you over for short term.. you can always look for a new job.


But what if you can't find a new job? what if you are involved in an accident and lose a hand?

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Different people have different strategy.. i cannot comment on others. You must have your own convictions, not every investment is suitable for you. I for 1, will not buy until I have done in depth study on a stock or it fits my overall stratergy.


I see.

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And also as you get older you move your capital gain stocks  more into income generating stocks/bonds which is less volatile to 'fund' your retirement.  nod.gif
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The problem is that I have done some serious studying in the local market, and i have not found, over the past 30 years or so, an investment that will consistently provide better-than-FD yields. In most countries yields (even for stable companies) are much better than FDs (or CDs) but here yields for stable companies are typically lower than FDs. Take for instance the US - CD rates are 0.5% - 1.5%, Yield for something stable like Con Ed is 4.17%. In the UK FD rates are the same, but yield for Royal Mail is 4.46%. In KLSE yield for Tenaga is just over 2%, Pos Malaysia I think is about the same.. but FD rates are 4.2%.

So what is the case for yield investing in the KLSE?
wodenus
post Sep 12 2015, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 12 2015, 01:47 PM)
You should be a long term investor in stock market. Study a stock for its fundamental, invest for dividend yield and also slow steady increase in share price. Don't bother about short term price fluctuation. Just hold long term
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Ok so would you know a good blue-chip stock with a dividend yield that is significantly better than 4.2% ?
wodenus
post Sep 12 2015, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(eaglehelang @ Sep 12 2015, 09:51 PM)
Google Lattitud, Liihen, VS, SAM, Magni. Even Poh Huat which went down a lot one time. FLBHD also has gone up past 1 week.


So all these stocks.. you are sure they will be here in 30 years' time?

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Ok-lah, give one tip, Padini's dividend is at 7% at the current price of RM1.40. When market was dropping badly, it's lowest was only RM1.28, unlike others which can give heart attack.


But again.. are you sure it's going to be here in 30 years' time? I can guarantee you Con Ed and Royal Mail (and Tenaga and Pos and TM) will be here in 30 years.. I can guarantee you that, can you do the same for all the counters you listed?

QUOTE(eaglehelang @ Sep 12 2015, 09:51 PM)
Scores of stocks have dividends more than 4.2%, even the reits do that.


REITs are a possibility.. but then after tax a lot of the good ones are not even 5%. And some of them can drop 20+% and never recover tongue.gif

wodenus
post Sep 12 2015, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 12 2015, 10:00 PM)
Is this the case of cannot read or dont want to understand? I have already said please get adequately insured in the past posting. Anyway god forbid if i lose my job and hand tomorrow, my investment income is more than enough for my family to live on.


Nice.. which is why I should be learning from you i guess smile.gif

QUOTE(gark @ Sep 12 2015, 10:00 PM)
Past 30 years? LMFAO! If you had just put your money in a good blue chip like pbbank, your yield on cost will be likely double digit %. Not to mention triple digit % capital gains.


Crunched the numbers. If you bought 1000 shares of PBBANK in Jan 1984 (31 years ago), after a lifetime of investing you'd have made over 2,400%, which sounds impressive until you realize it's Rm24,458 or about Rm788 a year, Rm65 a month.

So basically you made Rm65 a month for 31 years. Is that considered a good return?

I don't have a model for DCA yet though.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 12:03 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(eaglehelang @ Sep 13 2015, 12:04 AM)
In 30 years time, high likehood I would be dead  wink.gif . 30 years from now, we would have gone 2 to 3 economic slowdowns, many2 things will change.
Loonnggg before that 30 years I would switch change whatever the stocks if they fall, world trends change. They dont even have to be here in 10 years time. I would have made profits from them, more than what Tenaga, Pos or TM can bring.


How do you know when to switch? local stocks seem random to me.

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Of course, if you want stability, go for it then.


I want stability and a good return, doesn't everyone?

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I dont have to guarantee to you and you dont have to guarantee to me. You want to invest in overseas stocks fine too, it's your money anyway. Most important which ones can make more money for retailers like us next few months/years.


It's not that I want to.. I can't figure out a way to invest locally that is in any way stable and profitable. And foreign equity is nuts now because he's goosed the fx rate. So I am kind of stuck.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 12:34 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 13 2015, 02:28 AM)
Compared if you put the same amount in fd.. how much did you get?  smile.gif


No idea.. FD rates were quite high then.. around 7 or 8%..

QUOTE(gark @ Sep 13 2015, 02:28 AM)
Your number crunching account for the dividend  reinvestment as well?  smile.gif


Nope.. it's pretty basic for now, maybe later.
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 08:45 AM)
It's either that, or its someone who is

1. Reach an age who is thinking of financial freedom and retirement in the future
2. His calculator shows his FD cannot give him financial freedom and carefree retirement
3. Read this forum and found out you guys making good money
4. Become jealous and do some "30years" flawed calculation of some stock. Missed out some parameters like dividend, share split, bonus issue or rights issue and conclude even PBB's return is same as FD
5. See current volatility and crisis and conclude at anytime, stock market experience the same turmoil and risky
6. Hence don't see a way out and become extremely confused about his future

The usual reaction from a skeptical, negative, risk averse person. A person a financial planner experience nightmare to talk to. A ultimate hurdle for a financial planner. If he can convince him, he can convince anybody

He needs help. A lot of help.
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You got all that from the posts? Actually we have that data and it is in and taken into account. But yes I am a KLSE n00b. Everything I look at seems either too risky or too overpriced. Alternatively I would be happy to pay someone a percentage to get me a better return, but only as a last resort, since that means I don't get to learn anything.

I read in one of Buffett's letters "don't buy anything you are not prepared to hold forever" so I'm looking for something that has a yield above FD rates, that I can hold forever (that is pretty much guaranteed to be here all our lives.)

There are many like that in the foreign markets, but with the rate being what it is, it's gotten to the point where we have to look locally for the same thing. That's the only criteria really, something that has a yield above FD rates, that I can hold forever. So, any ideas?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 10:01 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(CyanT @ Sep 13 2015, 10:02 AM)
Please do allow me to add some comments, as I think you must have many questions unanswered in your mind.

First of all, I think it is important for us to know what's your idea of the next best alternative to stocks (I believe is FD), and your own answer to uncertainties. What would you do if you lose your job? Or your hand? What is your idea of the best course if such unfortunate events happened to you?
To me, just like many forummers mentioned here, it is important to have some diversity. I have medical and accidental insurance to cover my immediate expenses, and a FD account to cover for the next few months. I also invest in some stocks, and trade in futures, as a side income. I am also doing business (full time now), which fortunately has now been able to cover my monthly obligations. Therefore, to me, the investment in the market is extra income for me, either to reinvest, to spend on some luxury, or to save for a rainy day.

It is important for us to understand risks too. For every investment that could give a return, there are risks, including FD. A bank could go insolvent and bankrupt, although very unlikely (therefore FD is safe, but with low return). You may consider unit trusts as your next option, and then stocks, and then perhaps futures or warrants. You asked how do we know what's gonna happen next. We can't predict, just like you can't know when would the bank change the FD rate from 4.2 to 4.4, and then maybe a sharp drop to 3.5%. In this case, you may earn less. In our case, there are risks of losing money.

How do we know what company is good or bad? What's the fair price? When to let go? There are of course no way to predict, but we try our best to understand and forecast. We read financial news, we analyse the financial reports, we ask in forums, we study the fundamentals, the industry, the chart, the political situation…many more, to be as informed as possible. From there, we make a decision that is as sound as possible to ourselves, and we bear our own risk. We won't know for sure, but we try to minimize our risk. You can't possibly tell us that FD rate won't go down to 3% for sure right?

You also mentioned the word "stable" for a few times. In my opinion our market is stable enough, this is just a particular time where it is volatile. Stability is not just buy into a stock and hope that it will yield you some good profit. You can do that, but the return, again, won't be too high. It will generate you good income only when you put in effort to analyse and re-analyse, and make good decisions continuously.

Finally you have to know what's your aim. You want to make a living entirely from the market? Or you just want to use this as extra income? Or you want to use this to cover your monthly expenses and you day job as extra income? We are all in here for different reasons, with different aims, different methods, and different risk appetite. The only thing we share in common is that we want to make money.

So how about you?
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I'm looking for something that has a yield above FD rates, that I can hold forever (that is pretty much guaranteed to be here all our lives.) That is all. I can find so many in so many markets, but not in the KLSE.


wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Sep 13 2015, 10:12 AM)
Wow. After 2 days the discussion still haven't end? Lol.

I remember he started because of what I posted. Actually thought he's experienced like Boon, or gark they all. So many stars ma. Lol.
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You have many stars too.. smile.gif

wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Sep 13 2015, 10:22 AM)
That wasn't a post to insult you man. First impression la.
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Not insulted smile.gif trying to understand KLSE.
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:29 AM)
You came across as a NATO. If you've taken any action before, you would not be asking any such questions anymore. You would have been invested in those many stocks in foreign markets that you have identified as great holdings. These actions would have more than answered all your questions as you're the beneficial owner.


I was. But he said something else "don't lose money".

QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:29 AM)
By they way, why don't you share the long list of those many great stocks for the benefit of other readers? Some readers of this forum are not aversed to foreign market investment even at this exchange rate. They may already have cash holding in foreign currency; forex is not a concern. ROI or yield is.


Tell you what, we will go one for one. It's only fair that way.

wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:39 AM)
I have given up trying to talk sense to you. You hold very tight to your point of view in approaching your way of investment in stock market. No investment can satisfy your "ideology"


Actually quite a few do.. just that I can't seem to find any in the KLSE. And if you're wondering why I'm not in them now, it's because the cross rate is kind of screwed right now.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:39 AM)
Basically, you want "100% guaranteed and a company which will last forever" (ie no risk like FD), and expect "cheap undervalue and significantly higher return than FD". How old are you now to expect that ?


Is that unreasonable? I can find that in so many markets, just not in the KLSE. And if you wonder why I'm not in them now, it's because of the cross rate.


This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 10:51 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 13 2015, 10:49 AM)
"I know of this and what u guys been doing is wrong. Prove me wrong...
...
...no lar u guys are still wrong"


Sorry where did I say anyone was wrong?

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"I know of this yet I won't act because of that that that and that"


Yes obviously.. it's not so simple as that.


wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:48 AM)
Tell everyone here then. For the benefit of everyone.

I give you benefit of the doubt
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Ok as I mentioned in an earlier post.. Con Ed is one. Southern Co is another one. Royal Mail is yet another. I could just go on and on. So you see, what I am asking for is not unreasonable, but for some reason it does not exist on KLSE.

wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:55 AM)
Why avoid giving your list of foreign markets which you say is good ?
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Didn't want to repeat myself since I mentioned it earlier, but see above.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 10:57 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:57 AM)
Inaction at least is an "known' action

What he did was just saying "Foreign markets so many good things. KLSE is no good. Prove me wrong"  tongue.gif
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No, what I said was specifically, I can't find a stock I can hold forever, that has a higher yield than FD.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 11:00 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 13 2015, 10:58 AM)
Then your "foreign markets so good" is just your imagination ? All the sifu here are wasting their time on your imagination ?
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QUOTE
Ok as I mentioned in an earlier post.. Con Ed is one. Southern Co is another one. Royal Mail is yet another. I could just go on and on. So you see, what I am asking for is not unreasonable, but for some reason it does not exist on KLSE.


And now I have repeated this 3 times already smile.gif

wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 13 2015, 11:04 AM)
If he so believe in those stocks' "30 years future", in spite of the current forex volatility, the future growth and dividends of those stocks are gonna negate all that risks.


How do you see that the future growth and dividends of a foreign stock can negate forex risk?

Ok final post for serious people who are not trolling : this is what I am looking for - a stable company with dividends above FD rates. This is not unreasonable, I've already proven it many times over. But I am useless at KLSE, maybe one of you experts know of one.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 13 2015, 11:13 AM
wodenus
post Sep 13 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ Sep 13 2015, 11:20 AM)
Haven't you heard that the only guarantee in life is death? How can you ask people to guarantee something that they have no control of? Why don't you call the board of directors of each public listed company and ask them to guarantee that their company will be around for 30 years or more and that their share prices will keep going up and will give better returns than FD?

If you can find such in other markets, then good for you. Invest in them then. Since you cannot find any such in KLSE, then don't invest in this market. Since you feel KLSE may not be stable or profitable or it may be risky or overpriced , then don't invest in it.
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But I may be wrong..

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