Yeah, noticed the uptrend started from Sept 2013 (around 1.25) until now.

Those who bought around that time and accumulated and hold till now sure HUAT kao kao d with all the dividends, share split etc.

I haven't done the IV calculations yet though to determine whether still worth to naik kereta. Might be worth the ride if do more homework, hopefully it doesn't land in Holland haha.

Too expensive to attempt to goreng. Both stocks are supposedly beyond their fair value. But, nothing is considered max price, as long as there is a willing buyer and willing seller.

I do know some people who are actually trading BAT like a normal stock.

For me IV = Intrinsic value

Aiya, doesn't matter what style or skill anybody want to use.

As long they make money from whatever they are doing, then fine lo.

Their money, their way. No right or wrong geh.

Taiko, please help to share your insight on their assets and the rational behind why worth to goreng this stock.

I am really keen to know.

You may have specific/special info which normal or noob people like us may not have discovered or realised. So let's discuss, if it's ok with u.

Just my 2 cents opinion:

1. Noted that Hibiscs changed their FYE from December to June. So this round we are looking at 18 months results (Jan'14 to June'15) versus previous FYE of 12 months (Jan'13 to Dec'13). I wonder why they didn't try to show a comparison of results for 12 months versus 12 months or 18 months versus 18 months as a separate appendix...
2. Cash and cash equivalent has dropped significantly versus FYE13. Is this a good sign? I guess in some aspect that explains the major private placement coming up. Current year cash = 5.930m = 1% of total assets.
3. Investment in JV = 259.31m which is 47% of total assets.
4. Investment in Associate = 5.022m which is 1% of total assets.
5. Fixed assets = 55.451m = 10% of total assets.
6. Based on Point 3 to 5, are we very sure this assets are generating positive income @ cashflow to Hibiscs business? If you want to be realistic, then for Hibiscs to be in the black, that would take several years for everything to stabilise and for them to be profitable.
7. Based on Point 3 to 5, are we sure that this assets won't be subject to further impairment given current circumstances and perhaps in the future if operations is totally different from management's expectations? This will affect the bottom line even further.
8. Intangible assets = 144.744m which is 26% of total assets. Can make money from that much IA? Seems more like angpao money to me or perhaps to some extend an overestimation of the new assets acquired potential? This is also subject to impairment if things don't work out.
9. What is Hibiscs competitive advantage versus all the other oil players? Really sure they are operating at breakeven or profitable level given current oil prices?
10. Do you see anywhere in the announcement or news by Hibiscs assuring that their business and the prospects they are entering/venturing to will be profitable now or even in the near future (meaning next 1 to 3 years)?

So why invest in something that is still in the red and will take few years to even try to be profitable?

But if you are trading, all the above is pointless.

Eh, just wondering... was there ever a gathering organised by Lowyat or any of the old timers for those interested in investing/trading?

If yes, it would be nice to organise one again to meet up face to face and discuss investing/trading strategies.

Doesn't matter which type of stock or market or investment instrument.

Hahahaha all his VN mui is there!

So which race (humans, white walkers, giants, children of the forest) or noble house will triumph in the end?

Dear Sifus,

I seek your opinion on two subjective scenarios:

1. If you have a stock which already has 1 bagger+ or more what do you do with it?

a. Do you continue to accumulate more and hold if you see there is potential based on the chart, FA and believe mgmt is still doing a good job.

b. Sell partial to recoup cost and partial profit, then let the remaining ride the wave and gain more profits. No more topping up in shares.

c. Do nothing and just observe and let things play out by itself.

d. Sell all if then is indication the stock price will dip. Can't be too greedy.



2. What if your stock has gained a decent return % or even a few baggers, but there is an upcoming share split or bonus issue? What do you do?

a. Accumulate more till they finalised and execute the share split and bonus issue

b. Sell partial, the rest let it ride with the wave.

c. Do nothing, just let the share split or bonus issue and observe what things pend out.

d. Sell all if there is news the share split or bonus issue will dilute earnings etc.

I think everyone has a different take on the above as everyone's risk & return appetite is different. I would say their past & current experience will also have a factor on their decision on what to do.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Oct 2 2015, 11:48 AM

Wow.. ini macam super crash course in Plantation stock for Palm Oil! Very nice sharing.

Super like! Haven't invested in Plantation stocks for along time. Last time was IOI Corp, which was 7-8 years ago.

The common issues that affects shareholders is fear, doubt and experience.

Nobody wants to lose their current return % and the higher potential return % either.

There will be a lot of "What If" questions propping up for any action u take.

Maybe I tak cukup makan garam lagi, so still can have a lot of emotion in this type of scenarios.

Must become stone cold killer atau train to become like Bagger Guru like Sifu Boon3

For Sifu

Can learn anything from this stock?

Hahaha I doubt his VN mui existed that time. Oh wait...

Summary of your sharing.



So in some sense, among the common ways to get baggers is....

1. Either you invest before the breakout trend when the price is still consolidating or at the early stage of the breakout trend. Just ride all the way up when it the share is being pushed

2. Fish and collect during weakness as you know the stock will be pushed back up. E.g good FA stocks, GLCs linked to the index.

3. Collect when stock is at a downtrend for a long time but is about to turnaround after showing signs of improvement in results and overall direction.

The tricky part I believe would be selecting the method with the highest probability and having the necessary ammo plus guts to execute and stick/hold to your decision to baggerasm~

The problem with most investors I think is the Price criteria (e.g prefer cheap amounts so can invest more) and fear of the share price collapsing since it is already quite high. So in the end it all bounds down to high risk = high returns.

The rational for this is due to the current uncertainty in Malaysia affairs and banking stocks are usually among the first to dip when there is a recession or major correction, right?

Or are there other factors to considered as well?

TTB, Boon3 and Gark's all time favorite stock



This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Oct 3 2015, 07:29 PM

There is an interesting write-up on GLCs in Focus Malaysia print edition for period 3 to 9 October 2015. Some of the concerns like what we discussed on the banks are in there. There is also another write-up on MReits. Go buy n read.

Not convenient for me to scan. So I just take pic. Hope it helps.

I apologise if this is considered spamming and if the quality is not pro enuf and is raw without edit.

1. GLCs

Focus-GLC 1/3

Focus-GLC 2/3

Focus-GLC 3/3

2. GOB-PavReit

GOB-PavReit

3. MReits

Focus-Mreit 1/3

Focus-Mreit 2/3

Focus-Mreit 3/3