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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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gark
post Oct 1 2015, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 1 2015, 07:42 PM)
laugh.gif

see no one wants to discuss about the stock...

they only want to know what stock to buy only... tongue.gif
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Cannot simply follow.. later go to holland..

Must understand why the stock got potential.. tongue.gif

And also what are the risks... nod.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 1 2015, 07:47 PM
gark
post Oct 1 2015, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Oct 1 2015, 07:58 PM)
dont follow gark, he always masuk hutan 1  tongue.gif
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Yayaya dont follow... free trip to hollland to see windmill... rclxms.gif
gark
post Oct 1 2015, 09:34 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Oct 1 2015, 09:27 PM)
Haha was briefly looking at it ystrday. Noticed a decline last q but have not really figured out why. Need to figure out what is the composition of their  mills and plantation segments also
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Lower profits is due to lower cpo selling price and less SPV orders. Also thier tax incentive have recently expired, they are planning to renew it via a newly patented zero discharge mill. For their mill business, they are stilll doing good with order book to last them through 2016.
gark
post Oct 1 2015, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 1 2015, 09:31 PM)
Busy like hell...

Come here to talk c0ck release stress biggrin.gif
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Malam malam busy apa? If wan to release go find your viet amois la.. brows.gif
gark
post Oct 1 2015, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Oct 1 2015, 10:41 PM)
Observation
1. Plantation business contribution to bottom line is almost negligible
2. Currently trading at PE12, which i think is above fair PE based on history
3. Current orderbook amount is close to FY14 total revenue

Pros
1. USD effect - 40% of orderbook is in USD. 2014AR mentioned that 5% increase in USD will increase profit by 2mil

Cons
1. SPV orders decreasing. In fact SPV decrease is offsetting increase in revenue for mills.
2. No more tax incentive. Predicted to be renewed by end FY15.

Questions
1. How does CPO prices affect their revenue for mills?

Overall I think there isn't a strong catalyst for CBIP haha. First res might be better hehe, but flying already. no time to study and buy
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On mobile so give you a quick answer.

Plantation not making money now due to poor cpo price, with higher price will start to contribute to bottom line. Plantation asset in indon is still very young, like average 5 yo if not mistaken, so still producing low yield fruits.

History of SPV is lumpy, depending on contracts from government. Also due to recent low price of steel, margin expansion for mill works will be seen down the line. So far in 2015 obtained 200 mil order book for mill, expect to increase to 400 mil by end year.

Higher cpo price will allow plantation to move to higher margin cpo production rather than selling ffb.

Anyway good analysis there, agree that there are limited upside. Yes first res is recommended, their average tree age is 9 yo, just entering peak yield, a good sweetspot.

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 1 2015, 11:51 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 12:24 AM

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If the price of cpo increase by 20%, the profit increase much much more than that at exponential rate.

Example company A cost of production cpo is rm 1800, sell at rm 2000, profit is rm 200

Later the same product at the same cost now sells at rm 2,400 (20% increase) profit will be rm 600, which is 300% increase.

Also during el nino, total fruits will be less instead of increase.

That is why price of plantation jumps during high cpo price. biggrin.gif

$2.30 sounds like a good fair value.

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 12:27 AM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 09:44 AM)
Placing your buy at 1.90? tongue.gif
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Bought long long time ago... still keeping. tongue.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 10:15 AM)
You no take profit laugh.gif
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You know me lah... long term.. tongue.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 10:56 AM

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Ooooo CPO counters in IDX just beginning to zoom today.. got lagtime. laugh.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Oct 2 2015, 10:59 AM)
Haha.  Seems like their trees will mature in Fy17 18. Maybe can  revisit by then
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No no no... see the tree age vs output picture below. tongue.gif

user posted image

The trick is to buy plantation companies with high amount of immature/young trees around average tree age of 5-8, that is where the exponential increase in productivity, revenue and profit will happen in the coming years. icon_idea.gif

After 9 yo, the productivity will begin to stabilize and decline at 18 yo. wink.gif

Avoid plantation with significant percentage above 16 yo trees like FGV.. sweat.gif

Also you have to note yield per ha and oil extraction rate, certain locations like Sarawak and east peninsular malaysia (Kelantan) have poor soil hence lower yield and OER, hence lower profit. I would avoid those locations.. cause they produce max 18 ton/ha/month and OER below 20%. whistling.gif

Best location for palm oil in regards to yield and OER is west peninsular malaysia (especially Perak), Sabah, Sumatera and Kalimantan. These location can get yields up to 28 ton/ha/month and OER exceeding 23% wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 12:05 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 2 2015, 11:38 AM)
Dear Sifus,

I seek your opinion on two subjective scenarios:

1. If you have a stock which already has 1 bagger+ or more what do you do with it?

a. Do you continue to accumulate more and hold if you see there is potential based on the chart, FA and believe mgmt is still doing a good job.

b. Sell partial to recoup cost and partial profit, then let the remaining ride the wave and gain more profits. No more topping up in shares.

c. Do nothing and just observe and let things play out by itself.

d. Sell all if then is indication the stock price will dip. Can't be too greedy.
2. What if your stock has gained a decent return % or even a few baggers, but there is an upcoming share split  or bonus issue? What do you do?

a. Accumulate more till they finalised and execute the share split and bonus issue

b. Sell partial, the rest let it ride with the wave.

c. Do nothing, just let the share split or bonus issue and observe what things pend out.

d. Sell all if there is news the share split or bonus issue will dilute earnings etc.

I think everyone has a different take on the above as everyone's risk & return appetite is different. I would say their past & current experience will also have a factor on their decision on what to do.
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my opinion..
1. Re asses your stock, if growth still attractive, then keep or buy more, if not then sell or reduce.
2. c - the only right answer
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Oct 2 2015, 10:59 AM)
Haha.  Seems like their trees will mature in Fy17 18. Maybe can  revisit by then
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For 7076.. yes you are correct you will not see gains from it's Kalimantan plantation until 2017, but when it starts it zooms.

However it have some shares in Sarawak plantation, which i dont really like.. which are fully matured, these will factor into the bottom line (last Q recorded as loss).

With all these trees coming into age soon from the superboom aggressive planting during the high CPo price in 2007-2012... guess what they all need? brows.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 12:23 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 12:20 PM)
My sifu has speaking.... tongue.gif

Big money awaits those who do not simply scratch backside.

tongue.gif
*
Learning from you only nia... tongue.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 2 2015, 06:03 PM)
Yeah went to Padini super sales during CNY at IOI Mall also like that.. sweat.gif

But throw at fire sale price, pants and shirt and shoes goes for RM 10 each.. whistling.gif

Bought enough to last me entire year. brows.gif

Sign of sales problem? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 06:27 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:26 PM

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Wah!!!!!

Boon3 giving all his tips at one go...!!!! rclxms.gif

See until eyes blur.. laugh.gif

So many tipsy... drool.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 06:28 PM)
LOL!

Exactly!

Companies like this have warehouse sales all the time...

and what's a warehouse sale?

clear stock, isn't it?

when they clear stock, does it mean the company is going to make tons of money?

rolleyes.gif
*
looking at how they fire sale lately.. padini investors beware.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 06:30 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 06:30 PM)
laugh.gif

Tips are.... 3 sen many also got!

Most of them wins you a free call to you....

so that you can book them the ticket to Holland... tongue.gif
pssst... can you the similarity in most of these stocks?
*
Hahaha ... i can see... wink.gif

Unkle Sam is King? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 06:34 PM
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 06:34 PM)
the chart.....

might look interesting for some....

user posted image
but....

if you look at it on a multi year time frame below....

you really need to ask the daftest question....

why out of so many stocks, why insist on this one?

user posted image
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This stock is the favorite of TTB ... he was so proud of this stock a multi bagger for him.. still in his potfolio.. whistling.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 06:37 PM)
Parkson still in his portfolio? tongue.gif
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Donno.. maybe oh.. he dont like to sell stocks at loss one.. so probably still holding. brows.gif
gark
post Oct 2 2015, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 2 2015, 06:37 PM)
Hehe.... I know no Uncle Sam...

I know Auntie May Kim. tongue.gif
err.... you can see....

err....

from optimistic perspective... they are consolidating at near the highs.... all like waiting to breakout....

from pessimistic perspective.... they are all near the highs...too high already.... all no more power to push higher....
so which poison camp are you in?

rolleyes.gif
*
I am on the optimistic side.. because the recent hike in auntie May Kim... still have not fully reflected in their P&L.. wink.gif

Catalyst will be next Q report.. brows.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 2 2015, 06:41 PM

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