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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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Boon3
post Sep 18 2015, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Sep 18 2015, 05:25 PM)
So when is the best time to tembak since you mentioned not to buy early. tongue.gif
*
This IS the answer isn't it?

If you find yourself always having to ask...
Or...
You tend to find yourself always buying too early(from past experiences)
Or....
You find yourself in a situation where you dunno whether to hold or sell....

Then.....you really need to ask if this trading strategy is right for you....


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 10:39 AM)
Eh... no sound one? Every1 scared already oh..  tongue.gif
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laugh.gif

Stock market like this one meh?


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 11:08 AM)
Thats what people think.. look at the thin volume..  yawn.gif
*
laugh.gif

First time I hear people play like this one....


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 11:44 AM)
Winners and losers of USD.. a guide of those who loves USD..  brows.gif
[attachmentid=4973746]

[attachmentid=4973750]

[attachmentid=4973756]

Ok, now discuss!  tongue.gif
*
Not bad..... tongue.gif

Gloves.... How? Last report, Top Gloves outperformed...


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 12:14 PM)
Only glove company which is still under-performing is supermax.. wonder whats wrong with it?  hmm.gif

Glove overcapacity will take some time to ease off...
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Yes....that issue is their own doing. tongue.gif

Having said that...

Supermax earnings was flat...
While Top Glove eps increased to double digits...
...and the stock went from 5+ to 8.5+......

Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 12:28 PM)
Hmm ah boon ada beli glove?  brows.gif
*
doh.gif

I thought you want to discuss....... tongue.gif


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 01:27 PM)
Ya.. we discuss what you want to buy.. tongue.gif

Hevea... gloves next?  brows.gif
*
doh.gif


Hevea better than gloves.
Particle board outlook is promising. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 01:39 PM)
Looking at how many steel factories  have kaputted in Indonesia.. sweat.gif

Now scrap metal people also don't want to come collect..  sweat.gif

Buying steel imported from china is much cheaper than to produce own steel..  whistling.gif
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Overcapacity/oversupply/overstock = .......
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Sep 21 2015, 01:30 PM)
glove always a good buy isn't it?
*
My thinking is No....

Overcapacity lead to price wars .....

But now....USD strength is raking in mega profits for them
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 02:32 PM)
Hmm... price is up > X00% .. already jor.. still got meat meh?  hmm.gif

Free cash flow is nice.. like Homer..  tongue.gif
*
Particle board boom just started 2 quartets only....

Go check...


Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 02:44 PM)
Yeah .. if they can maintain the profits, it is estimated that they will make 15 cents per share.

At current price of RM 1.20, that's a reasonable PE 8...

But like gloves, good margin in particle board, will create more competition?  tongue.gif

Anyway looks interesting..  nod.gif
*
Macam fishing only....

Hevea products two segments...
RTA (ready to assemble) and particleboards...

a few years back, for 2012
RTA profits = 11.1 million
Particleboards profits = 1.9 million.

particleboards profits were shit then..... laugh.gif

last year
RTA profits = 19.2 million
Particleboards profits = 12.1 million.... see the potential?


this year.. 2quarters only...
RTA profits so far = 12.3 million
Particleboards profits = 18.5 million.... the profits from particleboards has clearly put Hevea profits up a couple of notches.
It no longer rely on RTA business to boost profits (having said that, as per half year, RTA profits should show excellent growth)


this is where, if I were interested, I were search info on global particleboards market....
ie... I need to know what kind of business economics I am looking at.

In May 2014 (last year... a bit stale news but the focus was 2017)

http://www.fdmcdigital.com/Global_particle...om_by_2017.html

other recent news on Hevea: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...tion/?style=biz


yeah, I understand your 15 sen eps...
but I do think it's a bit.... on the low side.

why ?
cos last quarter result was for the period ending June 2015.
with Hevea doing sales mainly in USD...
and end June, USD was trading around 3.77...
USD now is around 4.27.....
so based on 'flat' sales, the USD factor will surely boost up Hevea's profits by ...... ?

Oh yeah... Hevea share price have jump up a lot..... a few bagger already.... tongue.gif

Yes, but I do not think that is how to look at a share....

Previously... Hevea's share price was unexciting.... it carried debts.... profits weren't too booming..... and it was the DREADED furniture stock...
yeah..... all furniture business 'is said to come from Sungai Buloh'....
and they all tend to burn down one...
LOL!

Having said that...
yes.... it wasn't a stock to really look at...
remember how I even said it pale in comparisons with Homer?

but now...
it has changed...
the good cash flow (as noted by you)....
is turning this stock nicely....

profits are booming....
and it has a massive tax incentives that helps a lot.....
and what hevea is doing by starting to give more dividend helps......
I really have to say...
it's a different stock already......

and also....
it's doing the right things as a stock.
Holding stock conference call with analysts helps...
it put the stocks into the radar...
so much more info ( this is where it is now much better than Homer)

Will good business profits attract competition?
Yeah... sure will one.
isn't it the same, worldwide?




ps: don't buy laaaaa....

LOL!




Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Sep 21 2015, 05:42 PM)
no doubt condom is good, made of rubber also....... hahaha..... but both are used differently mah....
why ar? the demand for such gloves will only be on the rise, the people are more and more health/safety conscious which makes the demand higher and with the USD conversion, these companies are able to make extraordinary profits.....
*
my meaning is....

a few years ago...
in fact, to be more chin...
I was not positive on gloves....
esp on stocks like Top Glove....

now...
I think companies like Top Glove should be making much better profits....
rubber price low...
plus they sell in USD....

icon_rolleyes.gif
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 05:58 PM)
Lol reverse psychology ah... anyway dig further it looks good as long as they can maintain sales, waiting for suitable entry now.  laugh.gif

Factory is not even up to full capacity and almost no capex.. so its pure free cash flow rclxms.gif

How many bagger ah boon made already?  brows.gif

Last Q result was based on average USD of 3.65
*
Where got reverse psychology?

This called Tai Chi...... flex.gif flex.gif

laugh.gif



So you think can double?
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 21 2015, 05:53 PM)
my meaning is....

a few years ago...
in fact, to be more chin...
I was not positive on gloves....
esp on stocks like Top Glove....

now...
I think companies like Top Glove should be making much better profits....
rubber price low...
plus they sell in USD....

icon_rolleyes.gif
*
tehoice

See this screenshot.

user posted image

See and compare the most recent reported quarter (which was boosted by strong USD) (top line) with other quarters.
( see the previous few quatrters? so many down trending quarter profits)

With the USD trading much higher, Top Glove should report earnings more than 11 sen eps.

my 3 sen laaaa icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 21 2015, 07:18 PM
Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:37 PM)
management expects 2.5b revenue this year (so abt 11.7 cents per Q) but i think 13.5 cents per Q (11.7 * 1.15) should be reasonable given the favourable forex. Fair value should be 13.5 * 4 * PE 18 = RM 9.70. still got upside but not alot of bags la haha. if got bonus issue then lagi syiok. i was hoping to buy at  SMA50 (RM6.90), but since next Q results will be out in second week of Oct, i think no chance to kutip that low.
*
Wow! A fan!

Err....I don't use any SMA.
I find it risky....


Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 12:18 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:42 PM)
if price drop go back to SMA20/30 (RM1.02-1.08) then cantik liao. kasi masuk traktor
*
laugh.gif

Bus can carry lots and lots of stuff....
Tractor???? rolleyes.gif


Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 22 2015, 09:21 AM)
Emm.. if they can grow profits then they might.

But then hor.. as USD goes up, they might lose some sales as things get expensive, consumer .. err consume less.  sweat.gif

I read up their major export market is Japan and China, although the items are priced in USD, they are sold locally in CNY and JPY, which has also has some impact.

Conservatively I expect EPS 15-20, FV 1.50. On the bright side, they will pay back all thier loan by FY16, which means DY will expected to be up.  wink.gif
*
The bigger factor is the USD factor.
Again, I do not rate US at all.

However, the weakness of the ringgit is the problem....

as long as the current situations prolongs...
the USD vs RM isn't going to get any weaker anytime soon...

hence, the USD 'strength' should continue to be a major booster for exporting companies.........



Boon3
post Sep 23 2015, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 23 2015, 09:48 AM)
Best door gift is nestle...

Get hamper box..  brows.gif i think worth about 60-70 bucks..
*
rolleyes.gif

hmm.gif

laugh.gif

cool.gif


Nestle share not so expensive hor.....
Boon3
post Sep 23 2015, 10:27 AM

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Huh?????

Trading thousands of shares to get door gifts?

Worth It?

Risks?
Boon3
post Sep 23 2015, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(johnnyzai89 @ Sep 23 2015, 10:41 AM)
long term ma, plus food and dividend

ok la tongue.gif
*
doh.gif

Pointless.

We trade the shares to make thousands....

How much a door gift?
Are we as so hard up?

tongue.gif




Want to be a good trader...don't talk no door gifts.
Want to be a See Lie...then I have nothing good to say


tongue.gif

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