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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V149, Higher interest rate coming soon?

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djhenry91
post Jan 7 2016, 10:10 AM

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no..close market balik rumah tidur
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Jan 7 2016, 09:07 AM)
Pls have market correction! everything is so highly prices now zz
*
I am praying hard for one too. Except I want a meltdown lol
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 11:21 AM

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Good investors do proper analysis of companies etc.....and thus they do not constantly hope or pray for the melt downs ..

If u are still in the " hope for melt down " Group , then u need to do more home works to improve oneself ...or else u get outdated or outclassed very fast

Just sharing my thoughts only

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 11:26 AM
TC-Titan
post Jan 7 2016, 11:36 AM

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Hmmmm this China and O&G issue seems to be casting a tide of darkness everywhere eh ....
Can consider superceded jib-man's shroud of darkness... ?
The only light... to all of this could be a green light? user posted image
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 7 2016, 11:21 AM)
Good investors do proper analysis of companies etc.....and thus they do not constantly hope or pray for the melt downs ..

If u are still in the " hope for melt down "  Group , then u need to do more home works to improve oneself ...or else u get outdated or outclassed very fast

Just sharing my thoughts only
*
I agree with you that good investors always proper analysis before putting money into companies. Ascertaining that the company is good is one thing, the entry price is quite a different thing altogether!

I want to buy many companies, but at current market valuations, most of them are overvalued or lofty future earnings potential already priced into the share price. I do not believe in earnings that are yet to materialize. There is simply little to zero safety buffer if something unexpected were to happen to the company's business.

Another way of putting my point is that the market must meet my valuation of the company in order for me to buy, not the other way around. Example, if I value Maybank at 7.00 and current market price is 8.30, I will not try to justify buying Maybank at 8.30 (stability, large market player, blue chip, low bad loans etc). It is exactly the fact Maybank is doing well now that I must anticipate it may not do well in the future. That's why I will only buy Maybank at RM7.00.

That is why I am hoping for a meltdown, so that the market will meet the valuation at which I am comfortable at buying..
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(ZeaXG @ Jan 7 2016, 12:11 PM)
I agree with you that good investors always proper analysis before putting money into companies. Ascertaining that the company is good is one thing, the entry price is quite a different thing altogether!

I want to buy many companies, but at current market valuations, most of them are overvalued or lofty future earnings potential already priced into the share price. I do not believe in earnings that are yet to materialize. There is simply little to zero safety buffer if something unexpected were to happen to the company's business.

Another way of putting my point is that the market must meet my valuation of the company in order for me to buy, not the other way around. Example, if I value Maybank at 7.00 and current market price is 8.30, I will not try to justify buying Maybank at 8.30 (stability, large market player, blue chip, low bad loans etc). It is exactly the fact Maybank is doing well now that I must anticipate it may not do well in the future. That's why I will only buy Maybank at RM7.00.

That is why I am hoping for a meltdown, so that the market will meet the valuation at which I am comfortable at buying..
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But are u sure that economy turns better after u bought cheaply...

Cheap can become cheaper like Air Asia or OG stocks ...... biggrin.gif

IF there is a market melt down...seriously there is somewhere n something gone wrong badly ...so the prices u buy aka cheap would become expensive too

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 12:19 PM
whyseej00
post Jan 7 2016, 12:21 PM

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If market meltdown, it won't be good for either you or everyone else....

You sure you want everyone to suffer (including you) so that you can afford to buy the shares of some company? shocking.gif shocking.gif shocking.gif
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 12:21 PM

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Buy on valuations ..not the prices per se
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(whyseej00 @ Jan 7 2016, 12:21 PM)
If market meltdown, it won't be good for either you or everyone else....

You sure you want everyone to suffer (including you) so that you can afford to buy the shares of some company?   shocking.gif  shocking.gif  shocking.gif
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Ya u are right..Cash is still King in any melt downs ..but Not Maybank shares or what that keeping your cash in their banks biggrin.gif

Anyway do not put Maybank before the economy unless it is like Alibaba that could drive the economy ........

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 12:37 PM
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 7 2016, 12:16 PM)
But are u sure that economy turns better after u bought  cheaply...

Cheap can become cheaper like Air Asia or OG stocks ...... biggrin.gif

IF there is a market melt down...seriously there is somewhere n something gone wrong badly ...so the prices u buy aka cheap  would become expensive too
*
Value and price are 2 different things. When there is a price meltdown, it doesn't necessarily mean the value of the company deteriorate on a 1:1 ratio as well. Historically, markets has always overreacted when there were good and bad news. I aim to profit from these over-reactions, in this case a price meltdown. So far, there has been several companies where this has happened in recent months due to GST scare, namely Padini, HLInd. Current cases where I believe an overreaction has happened but the price has not reverted back to mean are banking stocks such as AmBank & CIMB.

SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(ZeaXG @ Jan 7 2016, 12:38 PM)
Value and price are 2 different things. When there is a price meltdown, it doesn't necessarily mean the value of the company deteriorate on a 1:1 ratio as well. Historically, markets has always overreacted when there were good and bad news. I aim to profit from these over-reactions, in this case a price meltdown. So far, there has been several companies where this has happened in recent months due to GST scare, namely Padini, HLInd. Current cases where I believe an overreaction has happened but the price has not reverted back to mean are banking stocks such as AmBank & CIMB.
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I think u are basically a Post Sub Prime Investor.........the cut off point ( history erased from yr memory easily or taken lightly if u are a post Sub Prime investor )

Post Sub Prime investors are Die Hard arguing Group ...based on lots of their own assumptions .....

THey see Earthquake 3 ..then they conclude Earthqauke 8 or 9 would be more or less the same

Have u Google the real meaning of a " MELTDOWN " in stock market BTW ????

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 01:02 PM
kancs3118
post Jan 7 2016, 12:54 PM

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Hi Sky Gor...long time no see...wishing you a happy new year 2016. biggrin.gif
So brother, what are your top picks for this year?

Symlife i think - very deep coma liaw...

By the way - what do you think of Tambun Indah? do you think can enter at this price?
kancs3118
post Jan 7 2016, 01:02 PM

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By the way , can help to check my calculation to get the PE is correct or not?
Gadang:
Qtr Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders
30-11-14 $8511
28-02-15 $16168
31-05-15 $24552
31-08-15 $20862
Total $70093

Total issued share capital: 235113

EPS = $70093/235113 = $0.298124732

Current share price = $2.44

P/E (trailing 12 months) = 8.184493744

Is my calculation correct? Please help to advice.
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(kancs3118 @ Jan 7 2016, 01:02 PM)
By the way , can help to check my calculation to get the PE is correct or not?
Gadang:
Qtr Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders
30-11-14 $8511
28-02-15 $16168
31-05-15 $24552
31-08-15 $20862
Total $70093

Total issued share capital: 235113

EPS = $70093/235113 = $0.298124732

Current share price = $2.44

P/E (trailing 12 months) = 8.184493744

Is my calculation correct? Please help to advice.
*
Investing is the " Sum of the Parts" so I do not just take PE or EPS alone ..anyway it is the future earnings that more important than the past ..

A company could be have a bad PE now but odeli showing good turnaround then I would buy ...

TIMECOM was once almost forgone ...but now a shining entity for example ..

What makes KYY successful coz he connects himself more to the future ..less on the past

So if yr calculation is a bit out here and there ,,it does not matter much COZ u can never compute 100% right on Future Events .

Best Regards

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 01:14 PM
kancs3118
post Jan 7 2016, 01:27 PM

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@ Sky Gor, actually, i plan to average up on Gadang. But then, waiting for it to come down. It seems the price push is in anticipation of a good quarter which will be announced this month.
Hopefully, can "hentam" some of it when the price has dropped after the quarterly results release.

i think Gadang will experienced higher earnings for their FY16. BUt then, the share price has been chased up quite alot. I am waiting for the buying pressure to dissipitate before averaging up. Hopefully, it will drop to RM2.20 and then, whack some more.

This post has been edited by kancs3118: Jan 7 2016, 01:34 PM
kancs3118
post Jan 7 2016, 01:28 PM

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By the way - what is your opinion on SymLife? i am stuck in there for very very long....sigh....
SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(kancs3118 @ Jan 7 2016, 01:27 PM)
@ Sky Gor, actually, i plan to average up on Gadang. But then, waiting for it to come down. It seems the price push is in anticipation of a good quarter which will be announced this month.
Hopefully, can "hentam" some of it when the price has dropped after the quarterly results release.

i think Gadang will experienced higher earnings for their FY16. BUt then, the share price has been chased up quite alot. I am waiting for the buying pressure to dissipitate before averaging up. Hopefully, it will drop to RM2.20 and then, whack some more.
*
I asked my friends to buy Gadang at rm 1.80.......

But honestly I cannot see every step of the ways.......meaning u buy now..sure tomorrow u can make the money despite China halted the market.


SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(kancs3118 @ Jan 7 2016, 01:27 PM)
@ Sky Gor, actually, i plan to average up on Gadang. But then, waiting for it to come down. It seems the price push is in anticipation of a good quarter which will be announced this month.
Hopefully, can "hentam" some of it when the price has dropped after the quarterly results release.

i think Gadang will experienced higher earnings for their FY16. BUt then, the share price has been chased up quite alot. I am waiting for the buying pressure to dissipitate before averaging up. Hopefully, it will drop to RM2.20 and then, whack some more.
*
I asked my friends to buy Gadang at rm 1.80.......

But honestly I cannot see every step of the ways.......meaning u buy now..sure tomorrow u can make the money despite China halted the market.


SKY 1809
post Jan 7 2016, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(kancs3118 @ Jan 7 2016, 01:28 PM)
By the way - what is your opinion on SymLife? i am stuck in there for very very long....sigh....
*
Symlife is still a good fundamental stock..but property sector is out the favour at the moment..

I thought u mentioned many times in another forum that to switch to something like Gadang quite some time back. So why u preferred to be stuck ?

If u aim for immediate return ..then u should switch some time back or even now .......

Once I held Asiatics for more than 7 years , at about 1.50..then it changed name to Genting Plantation with better feng sui..

BTW Icon8888..wrote a good article on Value Investors vs Value Traders....so u need to know which group u are..in

Value Investors hold shares until sometimes they forget they have such shares...

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jan 7 2016, 02:02 PM
feralee
post Jan 7 2016, 02:16 PM

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Can buy for Myeg or inari?


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