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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V149, Higher interest rate coming soon?

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ZeaXG
post May 25 2015, 06:00 PM

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Beautiful red day today. Meanwhile at China O.O"
ZeaXG
post Jun 19 2015, 03:07 PM

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China share market is crashing spectacularly lol
ZeaXG
post Jun 29 2015, 10:30 AM

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Hoping for a much bigger reaction to Greece than this. Not even 1% drop.
ZeaXG
post Jun 29 2015, 01:41 PM

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HK -1000pts already -4%

Malaysia bila lagi? biggrin.gif
ZeaXG
post Jul 1 2015, 11:13 AM

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Well, this is disappointing. Was hoping for bad news to drag the market down. Now have to wait for contagion effects from Greece and Puerto Rico to take place...
ZeaXG
post Jul 8 2015, 04:13 PM

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KL anti-gravity very strong. But, I suspect those institutional investors might be running out of bullets soon. lol

Meanwhile, doing my part in EPF withdrawal for unit trust investment every quarter to help reduce EPF clout.
ZeaXG
post Jul 27 2015, 02:56 PM

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Wa liao, Shanghai almost 10% drop so far today alone. This is madness lol
ZeaXG
post Aug 11 2015, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 11 2015, 11:48 AM)
Maybank tank 28 cents or 3.18% to 8.52
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Hope will tank even more. My TP = RM7.00
ZeaXG
post Aug 17 2015, 12:06 PM

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Finally, after so long, a bear market is starting. Time to break out my war chest which been accumulating for a few years.
ZeaXG
post Aug 21 2015, 10:55 AM

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EPF anti-gravity force super strong...
ZeaXG
post Aug 21 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Aug 21 2015, 10:59 AM)
Actually our tiger bank is cheap ..Tenaga with falling oil and gas prices.......

With PE of 10x.for Blue Chips ...........hardly u can find in Bursa if not at this special offer time..........
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Agreed that at current earnings, it looks cheap. However have to bear in mind that for Maybank & Public Bank, current earnings are actually at record high which may not be sustainable. Banks will be affected by loans deterioration soon due to high household debt amid higher living cost. Plus, we don't know how much loans exposed to the O&G sector which some may go bad...
ZeaXG
post Aug 21 2015, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Aug 21 2015, 11:31 AM)
Probably u are right ........

Also Sentiment plays a bigger role than the fundamentals due to market noises ....the bad thing about internet

End Result :-

The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive)
and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The Intelligent Investor is a realist who sells to optimists
and buys from pessimists.”

Ben Graham
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Agreed. I am a Graham/Buffett follower as well smile.gif

I am very close to entering MBB and other shares at my TP. Right now, although prices are reasonable for some companies, there is just too little margin of safety at these prices for my comfort. And the only thing between me and my TP is EPF trying their very hardest to support the market... lol
ZeaXG
post Aug 25 2015, 02:41 PM

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Does anyone know how much bullet the institutions still have to support the market? Like limitless... >:(
ZeaXG
post Sep 15 2015, 04:49 PM

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Guess govt didn't learn anything from China about the effects of govt intervention in stock market.
ZeaXG
post Dec 14 2015, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(staind @ Dec 14 2015, 02:27 PM)
are we at the brink of financial crisis?
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Doesn't look like it.

It's just that thanks to QE which fuel the bull market since last crisis, there just too much liquid funds sloshing around the world. Now that US is about to raise interest rates, all these money is rushing back to US, causing wild forex fluctuations. Doesn't help that China's growth is starting to normalised and there's so much competition among oil producers.

Good news is that US economy seems like back on growth track.

Bad news is if there is a financial crisis coming, almost everyone of us will not see it coming.
ZeaXG
post Dec 14 2015, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(staind @ Dec 14 2015, 03:29 PM)
happened to read paul krugman's depression economics. those symptoms that caused all those previous crisis such as interest rate hike, oil glut, volatile currency do seem like repeating. making me feel so uncomfortable.
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I feel like since I can't control macro factors, I shouldn't worry about it. I only need to be concerned about what I can do so I can sleep at night.

The best action to take now, IMO, is to take up a higher % of cash position. I am willing to sacrifice 3-4% annual returns for a few years, so that I can gain, hopefully 50-100% returns in the future.
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Jan 7 2016, 09:07 AM)
Pls have market correction! everything is so highly prices now zz
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I am praying hard for one too. Except I want a meltdown lol
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 7 2016, 11:21 AM)
Good investors do proper analysis of companies etc.....and thus they do not constantly hope or pray for the melt downs ..

If u are still in the " hope for melt down "  Group , then u need to do more home works to improve oneself ...or else u get outdated or outclassed very fast

Just sharing my thoughts only
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I agree with you that good investors always proper analysis before putting money into companies. Ascertaining that the company is good is one thing, the entry price is quite a different thing altogether!

I want to buy many companies, but at current market valuations, most of them are overvalued or lofty future earnings potential already priced into the share price. I do not believe in earnings that are yet to materialize. There is simply little to zero safety buffer if something unexpected were to happen to the company's business.

Another way of putting my point is that the market must meet my valuation of the company in order for me to buy, not the other way around. Example, if I value Maybank at 7.00 and current market price is 8.30, I will not try to justify buying Maybank at 8.30 (stability, large market player, blue chip, low bad loans etc). It is exactly the fact Maybank is doing well now that I must anticipate it may not do well in the future. That's why I will only buy Maybank at RM7.00.

That is why I am hoping for a meltdown, so that the market will meet the valuation at which I am comfortable at buying..
ZeaXG
post Jan 7 2016, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 7 2016, 12:16 PM)
But are u sure that economy turns better after u bought  cheaply...

Cheap can become cheaper like Air Asia or OG stocks ...... biggrin.gif

IF there is a market melt down...seriously there is somewhere n something gone wrong badly ...so the prices u buy aka cheap  would become expensive too
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Value and price are 2 different things. When there is a price meltdown, it doesn't necessarily mean the value of the company deteriorate on a 1:1 ratio as well. Historically, markets has always overreacted when there were good and bad news. I aim to profit from these over-reactions, in this case a price meltdown. So far, there has been several companies where this has happened in recent months due to GST scare, namely Padini, HLInd. Current cases where I believe an overreaction has happened but the price has not reverted back to mean are banking stocks such as AmBank & CIMB.


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