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 Stock markets in Malaysia

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dreamer101
post Nov 17 2006, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(vexus @ Nov 17 2006, 10:03 AM)
if you are investing in construction shares such as UEM u will gain lots of $$$$
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Vexus,

I guess you have NOT learn from what happen to UEM during 97/98. I did.

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dreamer101
post Nov 17 2006, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(vexus @ Nov 17 2006, 12:33 PM)
i mean now, i didn't mean 1997. UEM get alot of govt project currently.
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Vexus,

You still have NOT learn anything. UEM was a highly profitable company during 97/98. It became unprofitable when it was forced to bail out Renong.

So, UEM is profitable now. How certain are you that it will not be asked to bail out someone again.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Nov 18 2006, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 18 2006, 04:40 PM)
The list is a bit too long, for individual you can't monitor all the counters, the most is 10-20 counters, bare in mind when you bought their shares, you need to follow their business activities as well as their performance. Shortlisted into few then start picking what you want.

However, among the list, personally think that only PBB, PPB are considered quality stock and well managed. Airasia is a bit expensive at Rm1.50, and its business nature is quite vulnerable to oil price. But if you see oil price can drop to below USD50 then might consider. Others espeically like UEM, Time, Timedotcom, MRCB are more on political side, 'goreng' type.

For PBB-O1 is same as PBB, PBB-O1 is mean for foreign ownership which is cap at 30%, however local people/fund also can buy it. Previously, when there are plenty of foreign interest in the stock market, PBB-O1 has premium of a few ten cents to a ringgit more.
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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Nov 18 2006, 04:44 PM)
With your words, guess I would put Airasia and PBB as top priority too. biggrin.gif
I got an idea now, when this section got many investers. Then we pick one share to invest. My capital is not big enough to raise it. But with invester001, invester002,... investerZZZ. The capital accumulated is handsome. Hit it hard, and see how?!

The problem is,... by doing this. Is this legally okay?! I'm not so sure... ?! Mind to teach me something? Anyone?!
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I only buy PBB.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Dec 1 2006, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Nov 30 2006, 11:40 AM)
For the PE ratio, is it lower PE ratio show that the stock is undervalued and good to buy? Anybody can teach about PE ratio here?
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 30 2006, 01:52 PM)
The cheaper PE means stock is less expensive.

To simplify,

PE of 20 = 5%
8 = 12.5%
10 = 10%
30 = 3.3%
50 = 2%

So that mean if the company profit is constant in the future with PE 20, that mean it will earn 5% per annum to the shareholders. But sometimes don't be fooled by low PE since the published PE in the newspaper since it is based on past year result.
The most important is the future PE, how the company will perform in next 1-2 years, generally buying share mean that you are buying the company future 1-2 years time ahead.
Some company with low PE got its reason behind, may be the company future is not bright and profit will deteoriate which mean future PE will become higher or the past year result is too good (bring down the PE) which is boost by some extra-ordinary gain by selling property etc rather generated from the core business. But next year without the extra ordinary gain, its profit will become lower.
Growth stock generally has higher PE since the profit level is expected to increase.

Long stories, just a brief explanation. But if a company prospect is good and PE ratio is low relative to interest rate or share price is below NTA then generally it can be classified as undervalued or cheap.

The PE valuation is a relative to interest rate and bond rate. The PE needs to be lower than the interest rate can offer in order to justify the risk you take in the stock market. Otherwise it is not worthwhile to invest in high risk stock market, so that's come the expensive definition to the stock. For KLSE the average PE is 15 for 2007 estimated earning which is fair, not cheap also not expensive. If it shoot past 20 then it is considered expensive since only 5% return rate which is below the USD interest rate currently offering.
Overall the world market is trading in the range of 10-20 of PE ratio.
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This is from Peter Lynch's "One UP The street" book.

The formula that he use to determine whether a stock is cheap or not.

(Dividend Yield + Long term growth rate)
----------------------------------------------------
(P/E)

= 1 bad
>= 1.5 good
> 2 Bargain

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dreamer101
post Dec 11 2006, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Dec 11 2006, 07:35 PM)
hey guys.. do you all actually invest medium term in good stocks with good dividends payout?

like PUblic banks, Maybank.. which gives out good dividends yield every year.

I think public bank pays out around 90sen dividends a year on average. that will translate to return of more than putting money in FD right?
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Actually, the correct expectation should be Public Bank pay $0.40 dividend per year from now on.

Yes, I own Public Bank stock.

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dreamer101
post Dec 11 2006, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Dec 11 2006, 10:31 PM)
40sen only??? i thought they used to be very generous with dividends payout. but 40sen for investment of 7.20 is also more than FD rate
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Hi,

If you really want to buy a stock, you should do a bit of research. Public bank bought a bank in HK. So, it has to use some cash to help the HK bank expand. As a result, it cannot be as generous with dividend as it did in the past. I thought Public Bank is $8.50 now??

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 12 2006, 03:36 AM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Dec 11 2006, 11:08 PM)
Today, PBBANK is RM7.70 and PBBANK-01 is RM8.05. I wonder why PBBANK-01 price is higher than PBBANK. Dreamer, do you have idea on this?
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As far as I know,

PBBank-O1 can be bought by both foreign and local investor.

PBBank can ONLY be bought by local investor.

I should have bought PBBank-O1. I had that choice since they were at the same price during the time that I was buyng the share.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 12 2006, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(mucklampir @ Dec 12 2006, 06:43 PM)
i thought u don buy stock
how true is dis? today's star paper said our market driven by foreigner investor. or is that mean they onli buy the one that onli available for them?  rclxub.gif
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QUOTE([PIMPIN)
,Dec 12 2006, 07:20 PM]Dreamer said he only owns ONE bank's stock I believe
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Yes, I only buy one stock in Malaysia. And, this is the ONLY one that I think is worth buying at $6.80. Even for this stock, I will only buy it when it is a GOOD deal.

IMHO, at RM6.80 and annual dividend of RM0.40, it has higher dividend yield than FD but the risk level is not that much higher. The risk adjusted return is good.

Do you own due diligence to see whether what I said make sense.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Dec 12 2006, 10:08 PM
dreamer101
post Dec 13 2006, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(mucklampir @ Dec 13 2006, 10:42 AM)
y u buy? fundamental, technical or speculate?
wat is others stock which foreigner can buy?
how u evaluate the risk level?
blush.gif i just start my career n totally new to dis area. so don flame me if i ask too much  blush.gif
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Mucklampir,

I do not know MUCH about everything else. But, I know a bit about banks in Malaysia. Due to lack of competition, bank in Malaysia has interest margin of 3% to 4% (the difference between loan interest (BLR) versus FD rate). They are guarantee to make money. The ONLY way for bank to lose money in Malaysia is if they make too much political loan.

So, ask yourself a simple question how likely will PBB fail?? It is one of the largest bank in Malaysia. Malaysia will NOT let it fail. Plus, it survives and do quite well in the last recession. So, the risk level to invest in PBB is NOT so high.

I do not know anything else in Malaysia so I only invest on ONE stock.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Dec 15 2006, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(investmentlink @ Dec 15 2006, 12:21 AM)
Why need to differentiate the foreign & local?
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I believe there is a limit on how many percents of PBB can be owned by foreigner.

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dreamer101
post Jan 19 2007, 10:08 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jan 19 2007, 09:41 PM)
but then will u commit 80% of your savings into the stock market at that time?
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For anybody that commit 80% of his/her savings into any single asset class, he/she is gambling. That is not SMART investment strategy. Investment is NOT an ego game. Always bear in mind that you can be WRONG. You need to protect your money from your ego.

I learned that from Internet bubble by losing 50% of my life savings in the stock market. Hopefully, it will costs you less to learn this.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Jan 20 2007, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(lipkhin @ Jan 20 2007, 12:16 AM)
if u know what u r doing, u r not gambling..
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1) If you believe that you know what you are doing, you are a FOOL!!!

Remember Long Term Capital Management??

It was run by a few Nobel price winners that know what they are doing. Are you smarter than them??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

2) If you have 80% of your money in stock market, how long can you held out in a market crash? You think you know your answer. But, until you have really went through this kind of event, you do not really know what you will do.

3) I did put above 50% of my life savings in the stock market during internet bubble. I cannot stand the number of nights that I cannot sleep during the burst. And, I had to sell out due to my health.

4) There is a significant difference between what you think you know and you really know what you know. The difference is in order to really know what you know, you have to experience it and done it before. Even then, you cannot be certain that you will not repeat the same mistake.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Jan 20 2007, 12:55 AM
dreamer101
post Jan 20 2007, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jan 20 2007, 07:34 PM)
well i did not sell it off because I go for dividend payout. But PB dividend payout has been rather undistinguished of late. dividend 40 cent/ 7.30 = 5.4% per annum.

The thing is, I have options to move it into ASW2020 which pays a higher dividend payout with minimal capital loss risk. 6.8 % as compared to PB at 5.4 % only.

I am planning to sell this stock now, and move the money into ASW2020, while I can still make profit now. will buy PB again when it drops to 6 bucks plus. do u think it will go to that level again?

My cousin who is a remiser told me to hold PB stock until the dividend payout in march.
what do u guys think?
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Soul2soul,

1) The valid reason to sell if when you have better investment opportunity. So, your thinking may qualify.

2) ASW2020 -> Do you trust the government with your money?? I don't. Plus, I avoid all GLC and GLIC after the UEM affair in 1997/1998. Look at the super merger between the plantation companies now. Does that give you any confidence?

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Jan 21 2007, 06:10 AM

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QUOTE(wufei @ Jan 20 2007, 10:03 PM)
For years, ASN has prove they did pay better dividend.

I wouldn't want to debate furthur on ASN/ASW because I am afraid that my racist control will blow off  soon cool.gif . cool.gif  cool.gif
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Wufei,

Just remember:

1) ASN's dividend rate has been going downward in recent years.

2) Malaysia's oil money will be running out.

So, given (1) and (2), do you feel safe?

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Jan 21 2007, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jan 21 2007, 10:00 AM)
PNB is a GLC, and for asw2020/ASM/ASB there is a 1 to 1 capital return guarantee.

If one is thinking about the collapse of PNB, one has to imagine a scenario where the Malaysian economy collapses, when the government does not have any more money to save GLC. With so many malays putting money inside ASB (maybe the only form of saving they have), that is the last thing government will allow to happen.

If that does happen, i dont see any difference of putting money ANYWHERE in malaysia.
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Soul2soul,

Before this kind of event happen, the signs will be

1) the continuing reduction of dividend rate of ASW/ASM/ASB

2) GLCs have major layoff

3) Some GLC will be sold to foreigners

Are you seeing those signs?

Some smart Malaysian companies had diversified themselves away from Malaysia economy to prepare for this. You are seeing this as we speak. So, they will survive even if Malaysia economy collapses.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Jan 21 2007, 11:24 PM

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Cherroy,

<<But currrent share price of Sime and Ghope don't make sense at all. The indicate take over price of Sime is just around Rm6.50, yet SIME current price is RM7.70.>>

This is how GLC works. That is why I avoid all GLCs. Just imagine that you are a share holder of Sime. It is worth RM7.70. But, the majority share holders can screw you and sell the company for less (RM6.50) and pocket the money.

It has happened too many times.

This is how it works in Malaysia.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Jan 24 2007, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jan 23 2007, 12:34 PM)
My source told me to buy commerce when it was 7.50 3 months ago... but I was kind of tight in cash so i didnt  buy it.

PB at 8.75 today  blink.gif  and a 40 sen dividend , total 60 sen per for year 2006. rclxms.gif  I bought PB at 7.30 , and it's a 8% return...

my source also says CI will hit 1200 the most before CNY after which it will consolidate.

I hope PB will reach 9.00 , i will sell it.
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Why are you selling PB?

A) Selling PB -> earn $9.00 - $7.30 = $1.70 now. Put in FD $9 @ 3.7%, earn $0.37 per year.

B) Not selling PB -> earn RM0.60 per year and perhaps more in future.

What is your thought behind in selling PB?

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Jan 25 2007, 07:04 AM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jan 24 2007, 10:49 PM)
I am afraid the stock market will crash one day. but since PBB announced a 40 sen final dividend and a total of 60sen, am considering to hold the stock. My sources also told me to keep the stock, they said PBB wont come down to 6.00 + level for many years to come.
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With 60 cents annual dividend, you hope that the stock market will crash and you can buy more.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Feb 13 2007, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(ts1 @ Feb 13 2007, 09:50 PM)
i think inflows of foreign fund with respect of long term investments such as from kuwait finance hse...the crisis will b cushioned..msia market shld open up to more foreigners in order to accomodate good mixture in the capital market..
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Ts1,

Tell me what kind of "long term investments" do you see from Kuwait? As long as NEP applies to foreign investment, they will not provide long term investment. Why should they?? They do not have to give up 30% in all other countries that they could invest and the market is larger.

Our long term investors (intel (-> Vietnam) , Dell (-> Singapore) ) are abandoning us too.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Feb 13 2007, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(ts1 @ Feb 13 2007, 10:51 PM)
i think i miss "if" in the statement  tongue.gif

btw, KFH (frm islamic country) will not hv prob deal wif msia gov with regard of equity aka 30% NEP..if not, they will not even bother to start negotiate for RHB....al rajhi bank (spelling) hv been given "upperhand"  to open up branches compare to citibank, S&C n etc....due to islamic banking

gov is promoting msia as a hub for islamic banking...we may hv more investment frm these countries...... we may not able to attract other funds but defintely we hv upperhand in islamic based products..........

whether these fund frm middle east sufficient enuf to hv impact on the growth of economy is another Q.. tongue.gif

i dun see NEP beings lifted in near future simply becoz majority of malay still needs tongkat n blood sucking who know ppl still addicted to it...
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ts1,

<<btw, KFH (frm islamic country) will not hv prob deal wif msia gov with regard of equity aka 30% NEP..if not, they will not even bother to start negotiate for RHB....al rajhi bank (spelling) hv been given "upperhand" to open up branches compare to citibank, S&C n etc....due to islamic banking>>

To be precise, NEP is lifted for those investment from the Islamic countries.

So, you are correct in that NEP is NOT going to be TOTALLY lifted in the near future. But, Malaysia's hand is being force to lift NEP in order to attract FDI.

Don't worry. At this rate, 60% to 70% of Malaysia will be owned by foreigners. The same figure that we had at 1969. We are being colonailised again.

Dreamer



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