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 Stock markets in Malaysia

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dreamer101
post Mar 28 2007, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 28 2007, 08:47 PM)
Actually the abolished of the RPGT has minimal effect on Reit.

Reit and share is different. One shouldn't treat reit as share.

Reit is more conservative that offer steady income return(dividend) while having less exposure of the share's nature. Basically, buying reit is as same as owning a property then rent out so your rental income will be in the form of the reit's income distribution aka dividend.

Reit is a not bad investment especially those look for better return rate than FD while not like the high risk of share. But remember it is boring for those like to speculate a lot.
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REIT is highly dependent on how well the property is managed. And, the issue here is how well is the relationship being controlled between the trustee (people representing the share holder) and the management company ( the people actually managing the property). As far as I know, the regulation in this area for Malaysia is weak. People can be both: trustee and management company. So, there is a possible danger of conflict of interest and management company will charge a high fee for managing the property and leave very little money for the share holders.

So, when you buy REIT, check how do they separate the trustee and the management company.

Dreamer


Added on March 28, 2007, 9:11 pm
QUOTE(wufei @ Mar 28 2007, 09:00 PM)

They distribute the income to shareholders like us through income distribution. The followings are the example :-
But income distribution by REIT is very minimal, usually 1 sen , 2sen only . very small amount. So if you want to earn from income distribution, then die lar. What is great about REIT is they will distribute at least 90% of the gain. (Refer to prospectus).

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Wufei,

The right question should be dividend yield. If the income is 1 cent but the REIT unit only cost 10 cents, the yield is 10%. Typically, REIT's yield is greater than FD -> 3.7%.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 28 2007, 09:11 PM
dreamer101
post Mar 28 2007, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(kimhoong @ Mar 28 2007, 04:08 PM)
I doubt if the current WIMAX deals will bear any fruits in near future. Example like 3G takes years to mature. And I'm still wondering if 3G is already matured in Malaysia.
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The simple answer is IT WILL NOT. DSL and 3G is too cheap in Malaysia. There is NO MARGIN to provide WiMax service in Malaysia.

Dreamer


Added on March 28, 2007, 9:53 pm
QUOTE(wufei @ Mar 28 2007, 09:35 PM)
Its called income distribution.
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So what. The same idea apply. It is the yield aka percentage that matter. Not the actual amount. 1 cent for a 10 cents share is a lot, 1 cent for a RM10 share is nothing.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 28 2007, 09:53 PM
dreamer101
post Mar 29 2007, 12:22 AM

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QUOTE(penangmee @ Mar 28 2007, 11:35 PM)
3G too cheap?
But roll out for Wimax cheaper than 3G so better pricing.
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1) WiMax roll out will not be cheaper than 3G.

2) You do know that Malaysia has one of lowest 3G pricing in the world.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 29 2007, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(wufei @ Mar 29 2007, 09:10 AM)
then you tell me which REIT can earn 10% income distribution (You so called dividend)
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1) I do not invest on REIT in Malaysia.

2) There are REIT with that level of yield in USA.

3) I am showing you an example of how to calculate.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 29 2007, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(wufei @ Mar 29 2007, 09:29 AM)
Thanks Dreamer.

FYI there isn't any of this REIT in Malaysia. The one that can beat your annual FD rate is only AXISREIT.

The bonus buying a reit is they must payout at least 90% of the income. But the jigs are whether they charge high expenses or management fee by their counter part or not, this one no body knows
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<<whether they charge high expenses or management fee by their counter part or not, this one no body knows>>

1) This is normally reported in annual report.

2) In USA, there are enough regulations to fire wall the management company and trustee.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 29 2007, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 29 2007, 09:57 AM)
Reit and share is not in same category, can't compare like to like.

Malaysia's reit generally offer the yield at the range of 6.5-8%. If it is tax free then it seems attrative enough but currently it is being taxed at 15% for local investors and 20% for foreigners.

For some information about reit yield (listed in KLSE) some in the range since I have no actual figure with me but it is around in that range.
Starhill reit - 6.8%
Tower reit 6.5-7%
Qcapital - 7-8%
Arreit - 7-8%

The basic of the reit is that let say a property worth 100million so it split it into the share of 100million (of Rm1 each) and sell it out to tht retailers and the property is rented out and the rental income is 7 million so if they distributed all the income (need at least 90%) then all the reit holder will receive 70 cents that's 7% yield.

Reit price generally doesn't move much, but it is sensitive to interest rate and rental market. When interest rate goes down, reit is more attractive while vice versa. Buying reit is about to perform better than interest rate, while if property price goes up and rental rate goes up then can enjoy more little bit from it.
One important part is that the management must sincere and honest enough that will look after the shareholders. There are quite a number of management in listed company that not so sincere about look after the shareholders' benefit as today newspaper also reveal a case of listed company, misuse company's fund.

That's all about reit, you can't expect more from it. It is different from a property stock. For investment grading, reit is in between FD and stock market.
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This is talking about REIT in Malaysia. In USA, you have a lot more choices. REIT can borrow money to buy property too. In USA, you buy REIT for income plus as a hedge against inflation. During inflation, cost of goods gone up so it costs more to replace an existing property. Real estate in REIT worth a lot more.

REIT Index fund in USA had gone up 30% over the past year. It had performed much better than stock or bond.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:sym...ource=undefined

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 29 2007, 11:08 AM
dreamer101
post Mar 29 2007, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 29 2007, 02:01 PM)
Ya, I knew that reit in overseas particularly in US and UK performed quite well up to 40% last two years. I knew it because I had invested some into global property fund that invest primary into reit overseas which had gain 30+% in 1 year.
This partly due to property boom in US but now become sluggish due to subprime mortgages issues.

Other than that, as a local Malaysian that not rich, there is not much choice for us to invest abroad directly nor having proper route to invest in overseas stock market except through mutual fund (fund charges quite high entry fees which is the main concern I don't like a lot, but still invest in the global fund as mentioned since I knew there is good and steady prospect for those reit.

But domestic reit is a bit different due to several reasons: lack of incentive from gov (tax), yielding is so so (not high nor low) compared to overseas interest rate like AUD(6.25%) and NZD(7.25%), domestic retailers are more aggressive and speculative.
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Cherroy,

Actually, there is a low cost way for you invest directly. If you open a USA on-line stock brokerage, you can buy exchanged linked fund (ELF) of those mutual funds. They are traded just like stock.

For example, ELF version of VGSIX is VNQ.

Normally, to keep your costs down, you should invest in a chunk of USD 1,000 or more.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 31 2007, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 31 2007, 09:05 AM)
Weekend holiday may be.

It should be said there is some risk for world equities and economy will run into trouble but it doesn't mean it sure will happen, but risk is there if not properly managed.

There are certain high risk area:

1. China economy is overheating especially its stock market even the China Premier also admit it is too hot. Shanghai Composite index went up from 1200 to current 3200 just barely over 1 year and people there, are crazy about stock market, almost identical with 1993 super bull run in Malaysia. It is in bubbling state, if the bubble slowing deflated then there is minimal impact but if burst in sudden way with inflated stock price then it might be have large effect.

2. US economy run into recession with housing slump deteoriate. Although US economy still shows some resilence but risk is there. Furthermore inflation seems like quite sturborn and might force major central bank to raise interest rate further which has bad effect on stock market.

3. Geo-political issues, US and middle east relationship might turn sour and pushing oil price even higher which will hurt the economy.

4. Yen carry trade unwinding in big way, it will be disastrous.
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Cherroy,

It is my opinion that regardless how the world economy is doing, Malaysia economy is going to toilet. And, we are heading towards a recession. The simple reason is Malaysia has not keep up with the competition.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 22 2007, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 22 2007, 06:40 PM)
Based on PE alone, Tenaga is ok but the main problem it is a GLC. Since 1997 crisis people has some bad view on GLC company and no longer want to pay the high price valuation based on historical average.
Although historical average PE is 18x but current scenario is not as same as last time. Last time due to high growth of economy, paying a higher PE can be justifified since as earning will keep on improving due to economy growth therefore future PE will be lower.
Also Tenaga has not solved the issue regarding the IPPs deal and also price negotiation with Petronas about gas price contract which already expired. Tenaga bought natural gas from Petronas at a huge discount not according to market rate. Theorectical, Tenage is vulnerable to high fuel price like diesel, gas and coal.

Also bare in mind that although it is trading at PE of 13x, its lastest profit is including the exchange rate gain of several hundred of millions (I don't have the number with me) due to Ringgit appreciation against USD as large chunk of borrowing of Tenaga is in USD. So based on operating profit alone, its PE might be not as low.

So that's the information I can provide. Don't get me wrong here, I am not saying Tenaga is a bad stock, instead, it is much better investing in Tenaga than TM or others 'goreng' share. But personally, won't include into my portfolio since it is not a dividend play stock.

Current Rm12 is fair for Tenaga as a lot of investment house place a target price on around RM12-Rm14.
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I second that opinion. IMHO, Tenaga is not suitable for long term investment. If you want to speculate/gamble so on, go ahead. But, for long term investment, there are better option out there.

IMHO, Tenaga is guaranteed to lose money in the long run. It needs gas subsidy to survive and gas subsidy should goes down. It needs to borrow a lot of money for CAPEX. But, it has to pay a lot of IPP on fixed contract.

Dreamer


Added on April 22, 2007, 9:14 pm
QUOTE(edifgrto @ Apr 22 2007, 08:09 PM)
Hello?! Got a question here...

Given these shares. And you would have to select 2 from them ONLY. Two that you think are best in your opinion, for long term investment.

Which 2 would you choose?! notworthy.gif

DGATE 1.560, that got 1 to 2 bonus share proposal
GTRONIC 0.330, the KLCI share.
HUAAN 1.440, the first Redchip in Malaysia
HUBLINE 2.250, 1 split 5, then 5 for 2 bonus share proposal
OGAWA 1.240, newly born baby
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None.

Which one that you can buy and goes to sleep for 10 years and it will be fine?? That is my classification of long term investment.

Dreamer


This post has been edited by dreamer101: Apr 22 2007, 09:14 PM
dreamer101
post Apr 23 2007, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(lipkhin @ Apr 23 2007, 12:29 AM)
"ECM Libra Avenue Research points out that even excluding the forex gain, deferred tax writeback and tariff hike, TNB would still have reported a strong net profit growth of 64% on a half-yearly basis arising from unit demand growth of 6% and improved operational efficiencies."

excluding the exceptional gains, TENAGA's P/E is still as low at around 15..
i did not say its a very good company if compared to Public Bank, Genting..
but it would be a choice for value investor given its a GLC and monopoly situation in malaysia.

not only companies tat are well managed, good reputation or high prospect are worth to investing in, but an undervalued average company may be will give you higher return than investing in good companies..

anyway, i dun hold any TENAGA shares, jz my opinions..  icon_rolleyes.gif
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The question that we asked here is TENAGA a worthwhile long term investment?? Will you buy Tenaga and hold for 5 to 10 years?

So, what is your answer??

My answer is NO. You could buy as speculation aka sell it as soon as the price went up high enough. But, this is not a counter where you can buy and go to sleep for 5 to 10 years.

For speculation, you can buy all kind non-well managed horrible companies. FGor investment, you cannot.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 23 2007, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(lipkhin @ Apr 23 2007, 01:31 AM)
so do you mean whoever invest in TENAGA are speculators?
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Yes.

QUOTE(lipkhin @ Apr 23 2007, 11:19 AM)
proton wasn't in total monopoly situation, consumer can always choose other cars instead of proton cars, but malaysians couldn't has the chance to choose not to use TENAGA's power..
those IPPs cant supply power to consumer directly..

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Did you spend time study Tenaga?? The IPP contract is written in such a way that Tenaga has to purchase the power from IPP at such a high price that IPP is guaranteed to make money.

Read up from the edge.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 25 2007, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(cky80 @ Apr 25 2007, 09:07 PM)
thats it...after reading todays news on AFFIN bank ...

IM GONNA GET 20 BIJI!!!!!!!!!

long term investment...i think with BEA involved with their huge reach...

AT LEAST DOUBLE IN 5 YEARS!!!!~!!~! rclxms.gif laugh.gif

greed is good.....
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Double in 5 years mean that it goes up 72/5 = 14.4% per year. So, what is the big deal here?? Why should a person take a risk on a stock just for 14.4% per year?

Other safer counter is giving up 6% and more in dividend per year. You do not even have to sell to make money,

Rule of 72.
It takes X years for money to double given compounded return rate of (72/X) percents.

So, if you money double in 6 years, the annual return is 72/6 = 12% per year.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 26 2007, 03:23 AM

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QUOTE(kimhoong @ Apr 26 2007, 02:59 AM)
I think what dreamer101 means is that there are other alternative that give you comparative yield at 6% + dividen payout annually with lower risk compared to cky80's option in AFFIN

dreamer101, can you give us some examples of counters that fulfill your statement?
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I am NOT buying anything at this moment. I only buy one stock in KLSE. And, it is TOO EXPENSIVE at this moment. You can only gamble at this moment and I do not gamble.

If you gamble, DO NOT think that you can hold for 5 years.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 26 2007, 03:47 AM

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QUOTE(yewkhuay @ Apr 26 2007, 03:42 AM)
he is trying to say u are TOO poor to buy TOO EXPENSIVE stock and keep.
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No. That is NOT what I am saying. With the lot size of 100, you can buy this stock at less than 1K. It is just not worth buying at this moment. I will not buy this stock around RM9 with dividend of RM0.60.

Especially, I am confident that this bull market is not supported by fundamental. The market will crash and I can pick up the stock at better price. I can wait.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Apr 29 2007, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Apr 29 2007, 11:47 AM)

I think is you paying attention to PBBANK now. Now it's at 10.00, right?! If within 3 days or 1 month(period set by you). Then you saw many people buying it at 10.00. This is logically to say that it not high to buy as yet.

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edifgrto,

IMHO, that is the WRONG way to do it. A better way to do it is

If you assume that PBBank will be paying RM0.60 per year from now on (check financial report and so on), you decide at what dividend yield, it is worth buying and taking the risk. For example, the FD rate now is 3.7%, you assume that 2 X 3.7% = 7.4% is worth buying. So, you will buy PBBank if it is price at dividend yield of 7.4%. RM0.60 at dividend yield of 7.4%, give you price of

0.60/7.4% = RM8.10

You will buy PBBank only if it is RM8.10 or lower. This is one way.

You decide at what dividend yield that it is attractive to you and you calculate the price accordingly.

The goal here is to buy the stock and you NEVER have to sell to make money. The dividend yield is high enough that you make enough money every year without selling.

Disclaimer: This is one way of doing valuation. Use it at your own risk.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 29 2007, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Apr 29 2007, 06:39 PM)
Guys, I just check... please pay attention to (PIE, 7095). It giving a high dividend yield like

3 cents(tax free)
12 cents
8 cents(tax free)
30 cents(tax 27%)

Summing up to be 53 cents at one go! Its price already increased 14 cents since its announcement made on 25th April 2007. Last price at 3.66(if me not mistaken)

Information gathered from newspaper. Not so sure if got any typos from the paper.
Happy making money, and good luck! cheers.gif
Sounds like a very good and logical way! Thank you very much for the sharing!
Copied down your post as well for future reference!!!  rclxms.gif
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Hi,

It is NOT as simple as I post. You need to check one more thing too. Is the earning equal or greater than RM0.60 per share?? I did not look. I bought the share at RM6.60 with assumption of RM0.40 dividend per year.

So, the dividend has to be financed from earning.

Do not just look at dividend yield. You have to check whether the earning is sufficient to pay the dividend consistently or this is one time special dividend.

The last announcement that I heard is PBBank earning increased at 24% from last year. I do not know what is the actual earning figure.

So,

1) Check dividend yield

2) Check if dividend is paid from earning aka earning >= dividend

3) Check if the company has been consistently paying and increase dividend for many years.

Dreamer

P.S.: IMHO. there is only less than 5 counters worth investing in KLSE. I only know and invest in one. My definition of investing is something that you can buy and go to sleep for 5 years. And, you will be fine.

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Apr 29 2007, 09:12 PM
dreamer101
post Apr 29 2007, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 29 2007, 11:00 PM)
Thanks, dreamer for your explanation on how to determine a worthy price to buy and how to define a good share to buy...

I like your definition of investing...something that you can buy and go to sleep for 5 year!!! I know this is the correct way to invest, but it really need discipline... Keep away from all the speculation...

So, according to your calculation, if the company earning is more than the dividend, and the dividend yield is as what we expect, we can buy the share...The net assets of company is not really important, is it?

Cherroy, thanks for your reply. How we can actually know the quality of loan of a particular bank? Interest rate or what?
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<<So, according to your calculation, if the company earning is more than the dividend, and the dividend yield is as what we expect, we can buy the share...The net assets of company is not really important, is it?>>

1) Net assets has different meaning in different industry. I have NO IDEA how to evaluate net asset.

2) Banks in Malaysia is guaranteed to make money unless it is making political loan.

<<Cherroy, thanks for your reply. How we can actually know the quality of loan of a particular bank? Interest rate or what?>>

3) Check the NPL (Non-performing loan) rate.

4) Avoid all GLC related banks due to risk of political loan.

<<I like your definition of investing...something that you can buy and go to sleep for 5 year!!! I know this is the correct way to invest, but it really need discipline... Keep away from all the speculation...>>

5) Knowing and doing is 2 different things.

6) Have a discipline where you only speculate 10% or less of your assets.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 1 2007, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ May 1 2007, 10:25 PM)
What I worry is, there are more and more companies delisted in KLSE and get listed in foreign share market. Have to give 30% share to other ppl, not many companies willing to do that.
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Why worry?? This is GREAT NEWS!!! Unless, you are one of those people that get the 30%.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 2 2007, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ May 2 2007, 12:29 PM)
If all the good companies leaving KLSE, mean Msia economy is zero liaw...as Im staying in Msia, I don't think this is great news for me...unless I migrate to other countries. Now almost the whole market is supported by these few good companies.
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1) Companies leaving KLSE is NOT the same as the company leaving Malaysia.

2) It simply mean that it no longer has to pay the 30% tax.

3) As I had said again and again, I believe there is ONLY ONE counter worth investing in KLSE. All other counters are pure speculation anyhow.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 2 2007, 11:57 PM

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QUOTE(penangmee @ May 2 2007, 11:44 PM)
??? All companies operating in Malaysia pay Co's wot whether listed on Bursa or not , even Sdn Bhd. This year 27 %.
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QUOTE(lipkhin @ May 2 2007, 11:52 PM)
Hello Uncle Dreamer,

Do you mind to explain wat 30% tax is it?
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Folks,

You live in Malaysia and you do not know about the "Tax" where certain group of people must own 30% of all listed companies.

Dreamer

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