Russian expert responds to Thinking Taiwan editor on S-400

Vasily Kashin, a military commentator from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies based in Moscow has said that the S-400 air defense system will give the People's Liberation Army the ability to control the entire airspace of Taiwan, in an article he wrote for Sputnik News in response to an article by J. Michael Cole, the Canadian chief editor of Thinking Taiwan, a media platform sponsored by Tsai Ing-wen, the chair of Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
In his article, Cole first questioned whether the S-400, which China has already purchased from Russia although it has not yet received it, is capable of hitting maneuvering targets at its maximum range, citing comments from Roger Cliff from the Project 2049 Institute based in Washington, "If the maximum distance a 48N6 missile can fly is 250 kilometers, the odds of it actually intercepting its target at that range are pretty minimal, unless the target flies straight and level the whole time."
Since China's S-400 will likely to be equipped with the long-range 48N6 missiles with which the S-300 is equipped, the maximum range is limited to 250 km said Cole. Besides, the deployment of the S-400 to the coast of Fujian province in Southeastern China would pose a threat to Chinese civilian and military aircraft flying in the region as well. Cole also said that the S-400 could hit PLA Air Force fighters by mistake.
"To make sure the S-400 does not engage in fratricide, Chinese planes would have to stick to certain predefined ingress and egress corridors in a missile engagement zone that extends into and probably not beyond the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait," said Cole. "Beyond that, in order to engage aircraft from the Taiwanese air force, PLA Air Force aircraft would need to have the ability to maneuver freely, at which point Chinese radars would have difficulty telling friend from foe."
Kashin agreed that Cole had made some good points, but he also said that the weaknesses of the S-400 should not be exaggerated. He said that nearly all of the air defense systems designed by the Soviet Union or Russia were designed to engage maneuvering targets at the maximum range. In reality, the Russian-built surface-to-air missile performed much better than the official statistics provided by the weapon designers, said Kashin.
Using an incident which took place in 2001 when the Ukrainian military accidentally shot down a Russian Tu-154 passenger aircraft as an example, Kashin said that the maximum range of Ukraine's S-200V air defense system is only 240 kilometers, but it was still capable of hitting a plane which was 270 kilometers away from it. Kashin said that the capability of the S-400 in conflict against Taiwan's Republic of China Air Force should not be underestimated.
As for Cole's second theory, Kashin said that it is unlikely that the PLA Air Force would deploy its fighters or bombers against targets in Taiwan during the first wave of attacks. Most of Taiwan's military facilities including runways could be wiped out by Chinese ballistic missiles. Since very few fighters will be needed to destroy the ROC Air Force, Kashin said this reduced the risk of planes being deployed and therefore friendly fire would not be an issue. Kashin added, however, that to improve its range, China needs to purchase 40N6E heavy missiles from Russia.
Equipped with only the 48N6E, 48N6E2 and 48N6E3 missiles, Kashin agreed with Cole that China's S-400 cannot reach its maximum range, which is about 400 kilometers. Kashin said that 40N6E is designed especially for the S-400 air defense system and China will need it to dominate the skies over the Taiwan Strait. After several exercises carried out by the Russian military between 2012 and 2015, the 40N6E has proven its capabilities for future combat, Kashin said.
Kashin said that Russia will not be willing to provide the 40N6E missile to any other country. However, since Beijing has become one of Moscow's most important security partners after the Ukraine crisis, there is more of a chance that Russia will provide the missile. Equipped with this missile, China could maintain an aerial blockade over Taiwan for as long as necessary.
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclas...000043&cid=1101
May 1 2015, 06:34 PM
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