QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 9 2015, 04:29 PM)
Last time, when Petdag shares flew crazy it was driven MAINLY by new petrol station growth.
Think about it....
it rather make sense....
new Petronas stations were popping out everywhere.....
everywhere......
Petronas profits grew and grew....
That was the sexy story behind the stock.
now?
you might buy the stock at a price you think it is cheap....
but does it has a sexy story to sell as previously?
in short...
I have witnessed...
such strategy....
i will buy xxx stock if it drops to yyy price....
most of the time such stuff do not work.
why?
most of the tine the stock price drops for a REAL reason....
and the simple reason is that profits have been declining like crazy......
I agree with your statement as to why did Petdag's shares sore extremely high initially due to new petrol stations that are being opened.
Here is just my point of view?
(a) Why invest in petronas particularly ?
1.
Most people use Petronas as their preferred choice of petrol. Im not saying everyone but most as being observed by the past. Friends, families, guys from car clubs such as Porsche Club Malaysia & Malaysian Super Cars club have a huge percentage of members that usually incline towards using Petronas rather than its competitors such as Shell, Caltex.... Now you might say that the sample size of the population that i choose isn't large enough to come up to a conclusion but i guess its pretty decent to be used as a gauge to estimate the number of Petronas "fans" aka users.Have done some travelling and realised that the Petronas stations are the ones that are usually full especially in rest house areas.
2.
Looking at past charts and graphs has given me confidence that its pretty easy for Petronas to maintain a minimum share price of around RM23- RM25 in the long run.
Why so ?
a. Peoples preferred petrol brand
b. Oil prices could probably reach an all time low of maybe 10-15 dollars a barrel as what some economist/traders
have predicted but it would eventually have to return back.
c. There has been thousands of research that has claimed that we are reaching an era in which oil shortage may be
an issue. (When supply goes down and demand remains the same, keeping the other factors as ceteris paribus,
prices would eventually raise to meet the new equilibrium point.
* So i guess the key strategy here would be to start buying every time it drops significantly when ever its below RM16.
So what happens when oil prices rebound ?
a. People would still use Petronas as their preferred choice
b. Petronas constantly comes up with new methods to drill oil with an aim of lowering the cost
c. Profits start increasing as demand increases
d. More people would start investing in the O&G sector which would eventually drive share prices up
e. Finally, investors like us that entered and managed to average our share prices out could be sitting relaxedly
while receiving a handsome return
If my memory serves me right, Petdagang did reach an all time low of about RM14.60 (something) and i really wanted to get into the market but gesh was busy with my final exams

If i did buy it at 14.60 and sold it at todays price, i would have easily made about RM300+++ per lot in which i really regret for not doing lol
Does my analysis sound right huh Boon3 ? Looking forward for your guidance.
Cheers!
*Please don't forget to recommend us as to any "potential shares" that you foresee would be doing well

-edited: spelling
This post has been edited by shankar_dass93: Mar 9 2015, 08:24 PM