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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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gark
post Sep 25 2015, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 06:57 PM)
Psst.. look at IGBREIT before the dividend biggrin.gif

Imma try that again, see if it works smile.gif
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Go ahead and good luck.. lmao. laugh.gif

We are not interested in these chicken feed profit scalping.

Be sure to post all you buy and sell.. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 25 2015, 06:59 PM
gark
post Sep 25 2015, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 06:59 PM)
Who is we lol smile.gif and what can you get off BSKL other than chicken-feed profit scalping, there's not enough volume for anything really big smile.gif
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Yaya try it.. go ahead.

Post you buy and sell price at the same time too laugh.gif

Then compared that to actually holding the stock through the dividend. nod.gif
gark
post Sep 25 2015, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 07:05 PM)
OK let us see.. this should be fun smile.gif
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Remember to post buying and selling on the time which you buy.. not few weeks later ok.. wink.gif
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 12:36 AM

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Just a note of caution to REIT players..

MGS 10 year yield has been steadily increasing from 3.5% in early 2014 and shot to 4.4% recently over 'junk' status.

Although MY reit yield have not corrected in par with MGS10Y, the gap is getting narrower.

It will be a matter of time for the REIT yield to correct itself. Consider this a fair warning to adjust your portfolio. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 12:38 AM
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 07:00 AM)
Sorry a bit blur on what u're saying.

So does that mean the expectation is for Reit yield to decrease after considering the 0.9% increase in interest? Hence, the unit price will self adjust and reflect this accordingly or some unitholders will eventually sell their holdings to get better yields out there?

When u say adjust portfolio, means go find better yields after considering the addition of 0.9% to the yield right?

Just want to confirm a noob question. Can MGS rate be considered to some extend the same as inflation rate? Or we use this as a different form of assessment for Reits or its more for FA purpose using Benjamin Graham's method?
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REIT yield has always traded to reference MGS10Y reference yield (as its consider zero risk), usually between 2%-3% depending on asset quality. Now the gap has narrowed, there could be a chance that REIT yield s will rise higher to compensate. As yield goes higher, price comes down. nod.gif
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:30 AM)
Kak Zeti say, local institutional investors will come in to sarpork MGSs whistling.gif

But also take into account...

US Treasurys yield just fell drastically...economists don't think Fed can raise rates this years...

Do u think Ringgit is really worth this low? Yeah, in spite of the weak oil prices, and all the scandals, I THINK we are closer to the bottom than the peak.

Ringgit assets have become "cheap" to the Ang Mohs...
10-Y Treasurys yielding <2% now, whereas MREITs are yielding >5%

I'd say, HOLD.

I may be wrong though...hell, we're all gambling! biggrin.gif
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The way I am looking...

RM exchange rate is gone to hell.. as every one knows.. foreigners holding MY REIT will risk forex loss.

The other weapon to stabilize the RM rate is to raise interest, but zeti has been trying to prevent this because of slow economy. But when push come to shove.. and RM/USD becomes 5.. then all bets are off.. sweat.gif

Yes US is in a pickle.. in fact the USD strength is going reverse of common sense, even if FED is going to raise rates, its going to be 0.25%.. it doesn't explain the 30% gain for USD. It is more a flight to safety from the crumbling emerging economy. If FED can raise rate it SIGNALS that the US economy is doing well, hence more people will pour their money in.

The longer the FED delays it, the worst it will get. Everything in US is already very expensive and overbought.. including bonds (treasury yields down..means price up whistling.gif ) and stocks (average PE is 20.5 now!!!!).. as the momentum builds up it will come crumbling soon. sweat.gif

Germany and Switzerland already have negative interest rate and is suffering from deflation... this also helps people to push their money to US assets...

For your comment that treasury is yielding <2% is correct, but US REIT yields are trading at average of 4%, which is 2+% above their respective treasury, which reflects the fundamentals.

Now compare to Malaysia, MGS is trading at 4.4%.. how much does the average REIT yield need to trade at? wink.gif

Heck look at SG, see how much the REITs have corrected in price.. while MY REITs is still high and mighty for now... but for how long? laugh.gif

So I say TRIM and ADJUST the REIT portfolio.. keep REITs with solid assets.. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:00 AM
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:59 AM)
IGBREIT and KLCCSS yielding 5%+, but solid assets flex.gif
BUT got significant foreigner holdings shocking.gif

UOAREIT and MQREIT yielding >6%, but office assets sweat.gif
BUT negligible foreigner holdings tongue.gif

So, Pinky apa pun tak payah buat? laugh.gif
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Look south for better yields since SG REIT has corercted significantly..

From your 4 reits.. IF i were you i will trim down to 1.. but that is just me. laugh.gif

MY REIT should trade at average of 2+%.. good reit should be around 6%.. poorer ones 7%-8% for now.. thats is the fair value.

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:03 AM
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 10:03 AM)
No prize for guessing which is that "1" tongue.gif

The Lembah that is in the Tengah rclxms.gif
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But that is just me... tongue.gif

You can decide on your own.. laugh.gif
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:45 AM)
MGS no growth, constant coupon, REITs got capital and divvy growth! tongue.gif

In b4 sei Pinky got huge REIT exposure (50% of my stocks portfolio), wanna dispel all negativity laugh.gif
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Not all REITs grow.. whistling.gif

Some reits do actually contract from loss of tenant AND lower rental reversion.. those with poor asset.. tongue.gif
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 10:06 AM)
Diskusi yang konstruktif is sihat icon_rolleyes.gif
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Yes it is.. everyone got their own opinion.. not every1 can be right all the time.. but at least REIT holders are informed of the pros and cons.. thumbup.gif


gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 10:41 AM)
Thanks Gark!

To summarize or recap your points plus those from the above articles (please correct me if my understanding is wrong ya):

1. If MGS go up, Reit yields must go up to increase the premium against the risk free rate by 2-3%, REIT price must go down.

(What if the Reit yield is higher than average? So that doesn't mean they need to lower their price further right? The risk should be those with lower or average yields ya?)

2. If MGS remain constant, Reit yields can remain constant or become higher depending on the market maker, resulting in the Reit price to react accordingly.

3. If MGS go down, Reit yields can go down or remain constant, resulting in the Reit price to react accordingly.

4. Bond price has an inverse relationship with the bond yield. MGS is affected mainly by local microeconomic factors and some macroeconomic factors. Hence, playing a role to influence Reit yield in Point 1 to 3. Major investors or institutions tend to go for MGS to balance their portfolios and if they foresee a major correction/recession/inflation coming.

(US Treasury bonds have some but minimal influence towards MGS right? Especially with them aiming to increase the rate later this year)
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1. Yes, but there is a lag time..ie not instant
2. Yes can become slightly higher or lower, but it depends on assets not MGS
3. If MGS goes down, REIT yield will usually go down .. look at 2011-2013 where MGS is falling until <3%
4. MGS yield is determined by market factors and most important BNM OPR rate.
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 10:49 AM)
So would it be right to focus on the following:

1. Focus on REITS which have a good combination of quality properties and tenants - office, warehouse, malls + more anchor tenants.
(E.g ARREIT)

2. Take note of REITs that renewed majority of their leases and revised the rates.

3. Look out for those with expansion plans - but must be those that add value significantly in the long term.
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Just two words.. tenancy and rental revision and yield...

Maintain high tenancy = good, reducing tenancy = no good
Rental revision = >Inflation = good, negative = no good

Good stuff >6%, No Good stuff >7-8%

expansion plans does not matter too much.. for now, it will eventually be diluted (with PP or RI) like Tropicana mall.. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:53 AM
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 3 2015, 10:05 PM)
then how about those >5% yield? very good  tongue.gif
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Waiting for price correction.. tongue.gif
gark
post Oct 3 2015, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Oct 3 2015, 10:30 PM)
Gark, did you hold any Msia reit atm?  biggrin.gif
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Only 1... and that is because i bought it cheap previously.. tongue.gif

Recently disposed no 2...
gark
post Oct 4 2015, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 4 2015, 05:51 PM)
Lemme guess...

CMMT? tongue.gif
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whistling.gif

gark
post Oct 4 2015, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 4 2015, 08:10 PM)
This i wait until neck long long already. Only managed to hunt a bit of mqreit during the previous stock rout
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Sure you waited long enough? Just only in 2009, all REITS were selling at >10% yields.. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2015, 08:52 PM
gark
post Oct 4 2015, 08:55 PM

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Just take a peek at the FD thread, so many in fact almost all banks are offering 4+% interest rate deals. How resilent you think the 5+% REITS is gonna last? wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2015, 08:56 PM
gark
post Oct 4 2015, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Oct 4 2015, 08:56 PM)
When 2009, did you manage to join the party?  biggrin.gif
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Not for reits... busy buying us etfs at the time.. laugh.gif
gark
post Oct 4 2015, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 4 2015, 09:03 PM)
those days not enuf bullets mah...now got bullet but timing not right....
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You can try look at SGX, some reits is approaching 10% due to recent correction.. wink.gif

But SGD now very expensive... sweat.gif
gark
post Oct 5 2015, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 5 2015, 08:27 AM)
...and when RM recovers... rolleyes.gif
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Hahaha... RM can ever recover vs SGD meh? tongue.gif Even recover also for short term only...

Even before this recent sharp drop, I have policy of keeping some of my assets in SGD after I studied the SCARY long term chart.. sweat.gif

Chart below is until 2013 only, we all know what happened in 2015.. brows.gif

When I first start converting SGD is less than RM 2.. and only stopped recently when SGD touched 2.8..

user posted image

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This post has been edited by gark: Oct 5 2015, 09:47 AM

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