QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 06:57 PM)
Go ahead and good luck.. lmao. We are not interested in these chicken feed profit scalping.
Be sure to post all you buy and sell..
This post has been edited by gark: Sep 25 2015, 06:59 PM
M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment
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Sep 25 2015, 06:58 PM
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#61
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 06:57 PM) Go ahead and good luck.. lmao. We are not interested in these chicken feed profit scalping. Be sure to post all you buy and sell.. This post has been edited by gark: Sep 25 2015, 06:59 PM |
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Sep 25 2015, 07:01 PM
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#62
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 25 2015, 06:59 PM) Who is we lol Yaya try it.. go ahead.Post you buy and sell price at the same time too Then compared that to actually holding the stock through the dividend. |
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Sep 25 2015, 07:08 PM
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#63
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Oct 3 2015, 12:36 AM
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#64
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Just a note of caution to REIT players..
MGS 10 year yield has been steadily increasing from 3.5% in early 2014 and shot to 4.4% recently over 'junk' status. Although MY reit yield have not corrected in par with MGS10Y, the gap is getting narrower. It will be a matter of time for the REIT yield to correct itself. Consider this a fair warning to adjust your portfolio. This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 12:38 AM |
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Oct 3 2015, 09:42 AM
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#65
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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 07:00 AM) Sorry a bit blur on what u're saying. REIT yield has always traded to reference MGS10Y reference yield (as its consider zero risk), usually between 2%-3% depending on asset quality. Now the gap has narrowed, there could be a chance that REIT yield s will rise higher to compensate. As yield goes higher, price comes down. So does that mean the expectation is for Reit yield to decrease after considering the 0.9% increase in interest? Hence, the unit price will self adjust and reflect this accordingly or some unitholders will eventually sell their holdings to get better yields out there? When u say adjust portfolio, means go find better yields after considering the addition of 0.9% to the yield right? Just want to confirm a noob question. Can MGS rate be considered to some extend the same as inflation rate? Or we use this as a different form of assessment for Reits or its more for FA purpose using Benjamin Graham's method? |
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Oct 3 2015, 09:56 AM
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#66
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:30 AM) Kak Zeti say, local institutional investors will come in to sarpork MGSs The way I am looking...But also take into account... US Treasurys yield just fell drastically...economists don't think Fed can raise rates this years... Do u think Ringgit is really worth this low? Yeah, in spite of the weak oil prices, and all the scandals, I THINK we are closer to the bottom than the peak. Ringgit assets have become "cheap" to the Ang Mohs... 10-Y Treasurys yielding <2% now, whereas MREITs are yielding >5% I'd say, HOLD. I may be wrong though...hell, we're all gambling! RM exchange rate is gone to hell.. as every one knows.. foreigners holding MY REIT will risk forex loss. The other weapon to stabilize the RM rate is to raise interest, but zeti has been trying to prevent this because of slow economy. But when push come to shove.. and RM/USD becomes 5.. then all bets are off.. Yes US is in a pickle.. in fact the USD strength is going reverse of common sense, even if FED is going to raise rates, its going to be 0.25%.. it doesn't explain the 30% gain for USD. It is more a flight to safety from the crumbling emerging economy. If FED can raise rate it SIGNALS that the US economy is doing well, hence more people will pour their money in. The longer the FED delays it, the worst it will get. Everything in US is already very expensive and overbought.. including bonds (treasury yields down..means price up Germany and Switzerland already have negative interest rate and is suffering from deflation... this also helps people to push their money to US assets... For your comment that treasury is yielding <2% is correct, but US REIT yields are trading at average of 4%, which is 2+% above their respective treasury, which reflects the fundamentals. Now compare to Malaysia, MGS is trading at 4.4%.. how much does the average REIT yield need to trade at? Heck look at SG, see how much the REITs have corrected in price.. while MY REITs is still high and mighty for now... but for how long? So I say TRIM and ADJUST the REIT portfolio.. keep REITs with solid assets.. This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:00 AM |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:02 AM
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#67
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:59 AM) IGBREIT and KLCCSS yielding 5%+, but solid assets Look south for better yields since SG REIT has corercted significantly..BUT got significant foreigner holdings UOAREIT and MQREIT yielding >6%, but office assets BUT negligible foreigner holdings So, Pinky apa pun tak payah buat? From your 4 reits.. IF i were you i will trim down to 1.. but that is just me. MY REIT should trade at average of 2+%.. good reit should be around 6%.. poorer ones 7%-8% for now.. thats is the fair value. This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:03 AM |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:04 AM
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#68
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Oct 3 2015, 10:06 AM
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#69
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 3 2015, 09:45 AM) MGS no growth, constant coupon, REITs got capital and divvy growth! Not all REITs grow.. In b4 sei Pinky got huge REIT exposure (50% of my stocks portfolio), wanna dispel all negativity Some reits do actually contract from loss of tenant AND lower rental reversion.. those with poor asset.. |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:08 AM
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#70
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Oct 3 2015, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 10:41 AM) Thanks Gark! 1. Yes, but there is a lag time..ie not instantTo summarize or recap your points plus those from the above articles (please correct me if my understanding is wrong ya): 1. If MGS go up, Reit yields must go up to increase the premium against the risk free rate by 2-3%, REIT price must go down. (What if the Reit yield is higher than average? So that doesn't mean they need to lower their price further right? The risk should be those with lower or average yields ya?) 2. If MGS remain constant, Reit yields can remain constant or become higher depending on the market maker, resulting in the Reit price to react accordingly. 3. If MGS go down, Reit yields can go down or remain constant, resulting in the Reit price to react accordingly. 4. Bond price has an inverse relationship with the bond yield. MGS is affected mainly by local microeconomic factors and some macroeconomic factors. Hence, playing a role to influence Reit yield in Point 1 to 3. Major investors or institutions tend to go for MGS to balance their portfolios and if they foresee a major correction/recession/inflation coming. (US Treasury bonds have some but minimal influence towards MGS right? Especially with them aiming to increase the rate later this year) 2. Yes can become slightly higher or lower, but it depends on assets not MGS 3. If MGS goes down, REIT yield will usually go down .. look at 2011-2013 where MGS is falling until <3% 4. MGS yield is determined by market factors and most important BNM OPR rate. |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Oct 3 2015, 10:49 AM) So would it be right to focus on the following: Just two words.. tenancy and rental revision and yield...1. Focus on REITS which have a good combination of quality properties and tenants - office, warehouse, malls + more anchor tenants. (E.g ARREIT) 2. Take note of REITs that renewed majority of their leases and revised the rates. 3. Look out for those with expansion plans - but must be those that add value significantly in the long term. Maintain high tenancy = good, reducing tenancy = no good Rental revision = >Inflation = good, negative = no good Good stuff >6%, No Good stuff >7-8% expansion plans does not matter too much.. for now, it will eventually be diluted (with PP or RI) like Tropicana mall.. This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:53 AM |
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Oct 3 2015, 10:14 PM
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#73
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Oct 3 2015, 10:43 PM
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#74
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Oct 4 2015, 07:50 PM
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#75
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Oct 4 2015, 08:50 PM
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#76
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Oct 4 2015, 08:55 PM
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Just take a peek at the FD thread, so many in fact almost all banks are offering 4+% interest rate deals. How resilent you think the 5+% REITS is gonna last?
This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2015, 08:56 PM |
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Oct 4 2015, 08:57 PM
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Oct 4 2015, 09:12 PM
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Oct 5 2015, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 5 2015, 08:27 AM) Hahaha... RM can ever recover vs SGD meh? Even before this recent sharp drop, I have policy of keeping some of my assets in SGD after I studied the SCARY long term chart.. Chart below is until 2013 only, we all know what happened in 2015.. When I first start converting SGD is less than RM 2.. and only stopped recently when SGD touched 2.8.. ![]() » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « This post has been edited by gark: Oct 5 2015, 09:47 AM |
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