QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 14 2018, 09:22 AM)
Bro Cherroy,... I declined to comment yesterday when you mentioned this statement : Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.
At this morning's press conf at The Feds, the tone was exactly opposite, which I expected to be so. Three statements I made this morning,...
1) As expected and ' priced-in' , the Feds announced a hike of 0.25% at 2.30 am this morning.
2) The more impt observation is that the tone of the Feds is now more hawkish, and there will be another two hikes this year.
3) Then the mention of the neutral rate... possibly at... 3% at the current pace of economic trajectory before they pause.
The potential extra 1 rate hike for this year came in a little surprise.
Fed should be more hawkish, as US economy is "red hot" + tax cut boosting, almost full employment, inflation headlines has reached 2%.
If they are not hawkish enough, they potential behind the curve.
A lot of time, if read from the past, behind the curve was one of reason why crisis unfolding.
As too low rate for too long, tend to induce risk taking behaviour, then lead to some sort of bubbles.
I am happily to take back my word of dovish, if Fed is indeed walking their talk.
Previously, they are pretty slow in ending the QE as well as raising rate, despite many talks of ending the QE.
Yes, next year another 3 times hike was also a priced in factor, this is known to the market.