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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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cherroy
post Jun 11 2018, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(chiongchiong888 @ Jun 10 2018, 01:13 PM)
I'm trying to find the info on the occupancy tenure also .. How come it's not in their annual report ? I can't find that piece of info
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Some do list out on their major tenants, while some don't.
Also, they can't possibly list out one by one, especially for the like Malls, and involves hundreds of tenants one.

Normally,
Retailer - short term 1 to 3 years and renew annually
Industrial - more longer term, like 3+3+3 etc.
Offices - some short term, some long term.

They do provide some details to analysts meeting from time to time, can follow those report to know more about their details.
cherroy
post Jun 12 2018, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Jun 12 2018, 10:48 AM)
I think they are expecting US to raise their interest rate this week.

so it's not a good time to buy more REITs now??
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For time being, room to upside is limited.
Forsee a stagnant reit market.
If one can find a good stable and attractive yield reit, then different story.

It is highly expected that Fed is going to raise rate this week, and another one down the road within this year.

cherroy
post Jun 12 2018, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 12 2018, 12:13 PM)
Actually, unless the company has borrowings OUTSIDE of Malaysia, there wouldn't be too much of DIRECT effects against the borrowings of local REITs, right ? ... since BNM does not intend to increase interest rates,...
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Partly yes.
It won't affect directly reit earning/borrowing cost.

But it may affect foreign investors appetite, as nowadays stock market is inter related worldwide.

cherroy
post Jun 13 2018, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 13 2018, 10:00 AM)
I tam thinking should I expose all my Reits or just patiently wait. Currently unrealised gain almost 12%.  innocent.gif
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Even if there is a selldown, I don't think it would be as severe as during March to April time.

The real catch is reit earning itself.
Some reit may face plenty of challenge in term of maintain their earning, as it is not easy to fill up occupancy especially in office spaces.

Also, some ordinary stocks (after heavy selldown) are indeed starting to be attractive, and their yield is comparable to Reit yield.
So reit may not as attractive as last time out.

cherroy
post Jun 13 2018, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 13 2018, 10:15 AM)
Emm, bro TSOM... it's harder to increase dpu, because in order to raise dpu, the rental collected must be higher. I don't know much abt the T's and C's of the leases in Msian REITs, but I would think given the current economic situation in Msia,... no tenant would easily allow the REIT manager to raise the rental easily ! They can just move to another premise IF there is no legal binding,...

So,.. I think,... to maintain the yield-gap, the easiest way would be to drop the REIT's unit price,.... I invite opinions to my above opinion.... I'm afraid I'm more familiar with the SG mkt,....

Bro Foo,... if you look back at history, there were periods when the USD would WEAKEN even when the FOMC raise interest rates. I was surprised too when I saw this,... hence, it's not a 100% surety that the USD would strengthen with rising Feds rates,....
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For the like Midvalley, Pavillion, the occupancy is still 100%, and malls still have upper hand, as many are eager to have a space in those malls.

For office spaces, then yes, likelyhood renewal is at flat or slight negative rental revision.

This years Fed 3 times rate hike has already baked into the market, so any big USD movement only will come from unexpected rate hike cycle/times.
cherroy
post Jun 13 2018, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 13 2018, 12:42 PM)
Or quantum,... eg instead of hiking 0.25%, perhaps hike by 0.50%,.....tonight ????

Apologies,.. you are right,... then 4.30% would need to 'rise to' 5.80% yield of a REIT for the REIT to remain attractive to investors,.... a difference of 1.50% is,.. okay,...

..what if the REIT is so-so only ??

Rental income collected is also unstable... What sort of yield-gap would investors demand then ?
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No chance at all. I will treat you Starbuck if raise 50 basic point, if not you treat me... laugh.gif

Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.

Normally 200~300 basic points difference for those higher risk one, around >7% to justify the risk taken.
Quite similar to Sreit, those big cap stable one, yield around 5%, while those a bit high risk one around 6~7%.

Those so so one can be traded at significant discount to its NAV as well.
cherroy
post Jun 14 2018, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Jun 14 2018, 08:41 AM)
high div yield compared to other REITs.... but then I saw Cherroy post that high div yield, then the risk is higher. So now I don't know how to decide.

I'm just a beginner btw.
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Study their properties portfolio, look back its distribution history, follow their news from time to time and prospect of it.

Don't choose based on a single number, there are plenty other consideration as well.
Stock market looks for the future, not the past.
Quality is also an important factor in a good investment, not just high yield.

Which one?
It is personal preference and how one has good eye on it.

cherroy
post Jun 14 2018, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 14 2018, 09:22 AM)
Bro Cherroy,... I declined to comment yesterday when you mentioned this statement : Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.

At this morning's press conf at The Feds, the tone was exactly opposite, which I expected to be so. Three statements I made this morning,...
1)  As expected and ' priced-in' , the Feds announced a hike of 0.25% at 2.30 am this morning.
2) The more impt observation is that the tone of the Feds is now more hawkish, and there will be another two hikes this year.
3)  Then the mention of the neutral rate... possibly at... 3% at the current pace of economic trajectory  before they pause.
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The potential extra 1 rate hike for this year came in a little surprise.

Fed should be more hawkish, as US economy is "red hot" + tax cut boosting, almost full employment, inflation headlines has reached 2%.
If they are not hawkish enough, they potential behind the curve.

A lot of time, if read from the past, behind the curve was one of reason why crisis unfolding.
As too low rate for too long, tend to induce risk taking behaviour, then lead to some sort of bubbles.

I am happily to take back my word of dovish, if Fed is indeed walking their talk.
Previously, they are pretty slow in ending the QE as well as raising rate, despite many talks of ending the QE.

Yes, next year another 3 times hike was also a priced in factor, this is known to the market.


cherroy
post Jun 14 2018, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 14 2018, 02:24 PM)
Said to be two times this year. And as you said three times next year,... then will be touching 3.25%,... above the suspected neutral rate already,... hmm,...
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After yesterday rate hike, Fed fund rate now is at 1.75%,
2 x this year rate hike + 3 x rate hike next year = 3%.
cherroy
post Jun 16 2018, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 14 2018, 09:38 PM)
After yesterday's rate hike, it's now at 2.00%,... or 1.75% ???
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Fed fund rate current is 1.75~2.0%, after the rate hike.
Previously is 1.5~1.75%.

cherroy
post Jul 9 2018, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Jul 8 2018, 11:44 PM)
I've no idea about this.
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Property revaluation has no impact to Reit DPU.
Also it is a bit overkill for property to be revalued every year, as it increases the expenses of reit, as revaluation cost may not cheap, as you need to engage licensed property valuer, which in return shareholder may get less DPU.

The most important for reit is getting income from the leases.
Property valuation generally or naturally will follow the ability to generate the income.
cherroy
post Jul 18 2018, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 17 2018, 09:14 PM)
IGB just declared 0.0214 per unit dividend.

2.14 sen per unit comprising 2.12 sen taxable and 0.02 sen non-taxable for the second quarter ended 30 June 2018

I thought we don't pay tax on dividend?
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Single tier - no tax

Reit distribution - witholding tax 10%.

Technically, the distribution of reit is not called as dividend.

Single tier - profit has been taxed at corporate level, hence no tax.
Reit distribution - Tax free at corporate level if reit distributes more than 90% of its income.

cherroy
post Jul 18 2018, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 18 2018, 09:52 AM)
1) so this tax cannot be claimed even if you earn below the minimum taxable income tax?

2) then actually it's not 2.14 sen per unit.
It's 2.12 * 0.9 + 0.02 = 1.928 sen per unit dividend.
It's a bit misleading to say 2.14 cent is the dividend, no?
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1) Since after 2013 ceasing of imputation dividend and adoption of single tier, there is no such thing of claiming back on dividend.
2) Yes

Not misleading, the term used in the financial report is income distribution, they never said it is dividend single tier 2.14 cents.

Mind that, for corporate investors, they will receive net 2.14 cents (witholding tax is not applied), but the 2.14 cents is subjected to their corporate prevailing tax.
cherroy
post Jul 18 2018, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jul 18 2018, 03:15 PM)
Do you guys think market feel too optimistic for our reits? like 2-3 months already rebound 10-20 % for lowest point.
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Mreit lack of liquidity, so a few big funds come to market to buy, price can stay elevated already.

Yes, current valuation, most of Mreit are not that attractive compared to months back.

But with inflation number at low point, the risk of interest hike is diminishing, so may be warrant a bit for optimism on the reit price.

Generally, reit moves inverse with interest rate.

cherroy
post Jul 18 2018, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jul 18 2018, 05:08 PM)
The chance of local interest hike is diminishing but if you're talking about US fed is different tone.

Since many of the reit hold by international institution, I am more interested what they doing with their holding in coming months.

The rising rate of Fed I guess in somehow will put pressure on our Reits especially sale by institution investors?  hmm.gif

just my thinking...

anyway I sold off my holding, prbably revisit again if my expected yield coming again innocent.gif
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There is not much foreign investors in MReit, frankly speaking.
It can be seen through the volume each day, and queue as well.

They are more into ordinary stocks that are bigger cap and bigger liquidity.

Local institutional funds are always keen to support and push up a bit their holding one, which we can see from recent days of rise in KLCI, always last mins surge (already consecutive these few days). innocent.gif
cherroy
post Aug 8 2018, 05:13 PM

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A bit surprise that MQreit DPU come in at 4.23 cents. thumbup.gif
cherroy
post Aug 9 2018, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(donhay @ Aug 9 2018, 09:37 AM)
are you buying MQreits? or top up more?  blush.gif
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Holding for multi-years already.



cherroy
post Aug 13 2018, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Aug 11 2018, 12:48 PM)
does value investing apply to REITs too??

most of the REITs I see are above their NAV, so they are all overvalued?
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Value investing is not simply about buying stock that lower its NAV/NTA.
In stock market, value is given based on company ability to give investors profit/income or generate wealth, not solely about how much their NAV/NTA.

NTA/NAV is only 'valid" when the company is in the process of liquidating and giving back all the proceed from liquidation.
Otherwise, it is meaningless most of the time especially for minority shareholders.

While for Reit, it is primary judged based on ability to generate income.
Eg.
You may have a property that market value (or NAV) at 1 mil, but you have problem to lease it out, and the property is not only generating zero income but need to incur expenses that resulted in loss.
In this scenario, little investor wants to have this property even at 900k.



cherroy
post Sep 7 2018, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Sep 7 2018, 11:43 AM)
Is it possible to ask for dividend reinvestment? Is anyone doing it?
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So far, only encounter DRIP (dividend reinvestment plan) for Axreit, other don't have as far as I know.

You cannot "ask" for it. It is whether the reit got offer or not.
cherroy
post Sep 11 2018, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Sep 11 2018, 03:54 PM)
thanks! I think I read somewhere that you need to apply for it every time they declare the dividend?? Is that true?

and they said, I need to add a stamp hasil etc.
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When they do declare dividend that got DRIP, they will send you the "DRIP" form that inside do state how much you are allocated and the price of DRIP, normally slight discount to prevailing (or precisely average price of last 5/10 days before) market price.

If you want to subscribe then just fill in and send it back (similar to those right issue) or else do nothing and they will assume you do not want the DRIP and all dividend will be in cash.

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