Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

17 Pages « < 10 11 12 13 14 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

views
     
cherroy
post Jan 26 2018, 11:14 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jan 26 2018, 08:41 AM)
I am guessing the average net yield should be at adjusted 0.5% - 1% increased every time market need to digest the 0.25 OPR announcement.

market rumours said there will be another one or two time OPR hike next few months if according to the news....so hmm no rush to buy REITs, slowly adding seems like better strategy.
*
Can read the BNM statement made.

It said after the hike of 0.25%, the interest rate level is accommodative to the economy activities, means next meeting highly won't be another movement, and BNM will watch closely how GDP and inflation number before the next move.
Next meeting is scheduled on March and May.

If OPR is still consistently way below the inflation aka a real negative rate, while GDP still growing robustly, then yes, another hike possible.
While if inflation rate soften to match the OPR, and a soft economy, we may not see further hike

Yup, good for slow accumulation. At least, yield is becoming a little more attractive as compared previous year ridiculous low (below 4.5 to 5%)

cherroy
post Jan 26 2018, 11:20 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 26 2018, 12:06 AM)
i am personally favor the Axreit. One key reason is its asset focus on industrial properties. Second key reason is i have faith for its management team.
uoa group is very well managed too, strong management team. But same concern like you, i am more worry on office assets.
*
The greenfield property aka Nestle warehouse will start contributing after second half 2018.
Annual lease rate is expected around 19 mil, with long term lease 10 years with optional of extension further.

UOAreit is still rather "expensive" comparatively, possibly due to low liquidity that resulted share price only dropped a little.
Had disposed when it was 1.70 level.

cherroy
post Jan 29 2018, 10:00 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(return78 @ Jan 27 2018, 09:32 AM)
I would says if one plan to hold REIT counters more than 7 years, collect slowly now could be a good plan.

Anywhere, some ppl still worry about potential economy recession as it been long due and hesitate to fill up REIT portfolio.

If not mistaken, there're pretty limited choices during 06-07. Axreit, QCapital (MQReit now), Starhill Reit (YTLReit) are among of them. How are they preformed during the last recession?
*
Their price did dip as well, but it turned out to be good time for bargain hunting, if looking back.

Axreit dipped to 1.00 (prior before 1: 1 split), from 1.3~1.5x level)
Stareit dipped to around 0.8x
Qcap can't remember already.

But all three of them did still give consistent dividend throughout until now, which was around 7~8% yield.
cherroy
post Jan 30 2018, 10:28 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


I am very much agree IGBreit will be resilient against the rate hike and property glut situation

But for mall reit, I am very concern about CMMT situation, especially Sg Wang which is a big drag in its portfolio.

cherroy
post Feb 9 2018, 10:11 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


MQreit gross yield is approaching 7%.
cherroy
post Feb 11 2018, 07:26 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(knight @ Feb 10 2018, 11:19 PM)
That was the past right. hehe.

I think I still better wait. Its seems like on down train now.
*
Yes.
All reit are on down trend across especially after the BNM OPR hike.

The reit has managed to renew most of 2017 expired lease.
While for 2018, around 20+% is up for renewal, if manages to renew most of its lease like 2017, a flat or slight lower DPU is highly expected of near term future.

Up to 30~40+% lease is beyond 2020.

Some of its long term lease,
Tesco Penang lease is on long term lease until 2032
Menara Shell has anchor tenant of Shell People Services Asia for 15 years.

The office space oversupply situation is more particularly affecting those building that consist majority of short term lease typically multi-tenant with smaller space across.
Yes, office space lease/reit will still under some pressure across for near term, as currently we have 2 negative factors
1. Office space oversupply.
2. Interest rate hike.

For 2, I do not think BNM will be too hawkish on this.



cherroy
post Feb 13 2018, 04:04 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


CMMT also crashing down to 1.24, but not very keen to pick up, as outlook DPU is so so.

For Mreit (mallreit)
Personal top pick still IGBreit, (which is also around 6% gross yield), next Pavreit.



cherroy
post Feb 14 2018, 10:24 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 14 2018, 09:27 AM)
the last time we almost reach bond yield 3.5 was 2011. but the time if I am not mistaken there is an event that S&P 500 downgraded US bond itself lol  laugh.gif .

risk premium for 2.0-3.0% is still consider low premium IMO. sometimes I just feel that the local institution fund here is too much money going for only very few quality companies for the sake of compliance and window dressing.

I guess the average yield after tax in Sgreits still higher than Mreits ?
*
SGreit yield currently ranges from 5.x to 6.x% across
There is no tax on SGreit distribution.

With recent selldown of Mreit, Mreit yield is starting at par with SGreit counterpart.

2~3% premium over bonds are considered reasonable.
Back then, just a year or two ago when reits were trading at 4 to 5% yield, then it is considered very low premium, and unattractive, which I highlighted before at that time, reits were not attractive across.

Fixed income fund managers are struggling to find good yield instrument in current investment environment, as well as pension funds.
If a reit can give more than consistent >6% yield and with stable outlook, I guess many pension funds will show great interest.
cherroy
post Feb 15 2018, 09:32 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 15 2018, 08:05 AM)
In fact, looking at Axreit, its current price is very similar to its price in 2011-2012. Meaning, if we invested during that time, until today, we are getting almost zero capital gain, but receiving yield of about 5.5% every year. Not fantastic, just slightly better than a store of cash value. However, if we put in ringgit depreciation, the return become pretty unsatisfying. And the risk? actually not small. For instance, we are watching last time's beauty such as cmmt becomes today's risky asset.
*
Receiving a yield of 2~3% premium over 7 years period, means reit generate nearly 20% more than Cash(FD) over the period.

Don't look down the extra 2~3%, it could be significant over the long term.
Yes, I agreed risk is never small to start with.

As investors, we need to react to individual reit fundamental change.
CMMT fundamental is not the same as last time out.
Secondary mall outlook bleak + interest rate hike, double whammy.
But it may look attractive, if continue being sold down.

Reit won't have fantastic return over the long term, it is a yield play like bond, instead of equity.

For currency depreciation, every stock in KLSE also suffer the faith, not limited to reit.

This is reason, I would like to see MReit venture into overseas property, just like YTLreit
YTLreit is benefit from RM depreciation, through its Australia properties.

I understand how reit holders feeling, as current it is a reit bear market.
cherroy
post Feb 21 2018, 10:12 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(yw188 @ Feb 20 2018, 03:37 PM)
pavreit 1.37 today..
look like can entering..
y it drop so much yea?
*
Reit are "battled" across due to rate hike recently, as well as potential mall and office space oversupply.

I guess reit market may be correcting to old day yield of 6.x~7.x% before bottoming.
cherroy
post Feb 21 2018, 11:18 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(tonychua628 @ Feb 21 2018, 11:08 AM)
sorry what is FOMC?  blush.gif
*
Federal Open Market Committee.
Similar to BNM MPC here.

The one decided the interest rate of a country.

Reit bear market will only end when there is a hint they are not going to raise interest rate further or the interest hike expectation is below market consensus.


cherroy
post Feb 21 2018, 05:29 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 21 2018, 05:00 PM)
if that's the case, then it's a sell for today and wait for better re-entry point  laugh.gif

at this moment, net yield is at around 5.5%-6.5%, so we need another 10% price drop to reach 6%-7% net yield.  hmm.gif
*
It depends,
for the like IGBreit with stable outlook and potential increment in DPU in near term, unlikely it will reach beyond 6~7%.
Unless we have significant hike of interest rate like more than 1~3% hike (which I don't see it likely).

Locally, market is anticipating a 0.25 to 0.5% hike and no more for near term.
While for US, market is already anticipating a 3 hike for this year. It is "baked into" the market already.

For office reit, yes, we need >7% gross yield to compensate the risk, MQreit is correcting now to more than 7% gross.

CMMT is battled down heavily recently, now gross yield is also more than 7%, but the worry of this reit is its outlook in near term future, especially 2 to 3 malls are not performing based on recent Q report.

PAVreit - after recent selldown, now about 6% gross, at par with IGBreit.

The stable outlook and consistent DPU reit is preferred in current environment.


cherroy
post Feb 22 2018, 10:23 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 22 2018, 07:44 AM)
Got mine @1.34 . I bought very small only for my portfolio percentage.

Beside the da men under perform and the interest rate hike, I guess there is no announcement yet. Just don't rush to buy, in bear market trend for reits , plenty of chances.

Hopefully we can see net yield around 7 percent Ish....

Last few year all the reits holder syok by the capital gain instead of dividend collection, now after the complacent of low interest rates for so long (after so many years of wind talk want increase rate) , it is time to revert back to yield 6-8 percents range for all the reits.
*
For malls reit, outside of so called "top malls", I won't consider at all.
In current situation, IGBreit is actually blessed with no "diversification", and only has the only "top malls", which spared from secondary malls oversupply.



cherroy
post Feb 22 2018, 04:31 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 22 2018, 02:46 PM)
so never consider Pavreit ?  tongue.gif
hmm.gif ....see how the price behave these 1-2 weeks
noted  notworthy.gif
*
Pavreit yield is about the same with IGBreit currently, hence I prefer the later, as its DPU still at upwards trajectory whenever there is rental revision, and no drag on any "diversification" asset.

Somemore IGBreit just completed the refinancing cycle, hence the recent interest hike won't have much effect until next refinancing cycle.
cherroy
post Feb 26 2018, 11:16 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


YTLreit reported a decent Q result, with 1.99 DPU
cherroy
post Feb 27 2018, 05:06 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


Mreit continue to be battled down.

7~8% gross yield becomes a norm.
CMMT really being battled down hard.
cherroy
post Feb 28 2018, 04:54 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 28 2018, 12:47 PM)
if rate continues to move up 0.5% by end-2019, that would be a 15% hike for current 3.25%. Meaning, if the reit we bought today didn't increase DPU by 15% til end-2019, we will continue to suffer price drop, which possible means that putting money into FD might give us even better yield until end-2019.  hmm.gif

currently, only IGBReit gives me a little better confidence of DPU increment. Other than it, even Axreit or MQReit i am having doubt whether they could increase DPU, if not decreasing instead!  laugh.gif
*
I do not think there will be another 0.5% hike further.
Many businesses may suffer if rate continue to go higher.
Despite good GDP number, in reality not all businesses are not doing greatly, recent Q report of many listed companies only reporting so so earning across.

Axreit should see some DPU improvement with new Nestle warehouse income,
MQreit - should see more and less a stable DPU.

The reit which can provide stable DPU in this reit bear market are essential to get through this difficult time.
Top of the list currently is
IGBreit
YTLreit

I do not see FD rate can go beyond 4.5~5%.


cherroy
post Mar 1 2018, 09:49 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(gark @ Mar 1 2018, 09:41 AM)
I think for SW they have their hands tied, half the lots does not belong to them.. so it will be difficult to coordinate revival plan. The only thing they are doing is the overhead pedestrian bridge to BTS..might backfire and more people go to BTS instead (idea from capitaland revival of Junction 8 and IMM in SG)

The best they can do, but again their hands are tied, is to demolish and rebuilt into integrated mall/office/hotel/condo like what they did to Funan mall in SG. Hotel/condo/office will be given to developer, and in exchange you get a brand new mall at no cost, and DPU remain stable as developer is paying the rent during construction.

Owner of CMMT is capitaland SG.. which is quite capable. But because of SW I sold all my units at 1.45 previously.
*
Want to dip in below 1.00? brows.gif
cherroy
post Mar 1 2018, 11:39 AM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


Reit has one last defence protection that is its properties.

Worst to worst, fire-sale the property and get back the capital.

Also, reit transparency is very clear, no hanky panky on account book, any bad or good, instantly show up, but a growth stock can have accounting creativity to look good.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 1 2018, 11:39 AM
cherroy
post Mar 1 2018, 04:38 PM

20k VIP Club
Group Icon
Staff
25,802 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penang


QUOTE(return78 @ Mar 1 2018, 02:06 PM)
Well says! Absolutely correct... but if there is a chance of fire-sale, what's the impact on its share price, how long it took and the opportunity cost, and what's are the odd it can sell at valuated / desired price? It still need bear some minor loses (assessment fee etc) over years until it get sold. For SW, due to it's mixed ownership, the sales will be more complicated. (SW purchased @ 724mil while current valuation ~ 583mil)

One should very clear on their portfolio allocation and investment strategy... dont take me wrong; i'm not promoting park the allocation of dividend portfolio to growth stock.

When it fall around 1.1x, i was so tempted to buy back with my capital gain, and treat it as free shares, and I asked myself

a> For long terms (5 to 10 years span at least), at current landscape, is CMMT pose higher risk compared to other like REIT.

b> On dividend portfolio front, what my objective? Peace of mind or maximize the potential capital gain on CMMT, what was the feel like on hunting the opportunity letting go CMMT since last 2 years back.

c> If looking for 7%+ dividend for long run, is there any other option?

d> What are the chances DPU slip further in next few quarters.. (Interest hike and harder to secure new tenant due to exceed offering, while existing tenant is leaving...eg: Parkson moved out SW lately).

e> What's are the chance CMMT management make a turn around in such competitive and stiff environment against other retail mall player.

f> Why huge sell off recently by institute player and their entry price is low actually... (eg: EPF was cornerstone investor during IPO).

g> How's the institute players act lately on CMMT counter.. (eg: KWAP & EPF keep dumping CMMT, while EPF do increase their Axreit portfolio)

h> Why CMMT management do additional listing back as the way to pay CMRM's management fee in Sept 17. Isn't that resonate they're in tough situation and so desperate to make acct looks good.

p/s: Someone was sold 13 mil share @ 1.02 yesterday last minutes before closing and noticed some short term trader from i3 trying to make profit on this stock too.

NOTE: Just my 2 cents.. I could be totally wrong and one may make an handsome profit by vesting into CMMT at current dip.
*
a) The one high risk is SW, due to its problematic stratified unit that it doesn't own.
If own the whole property, the better alternative may be tearing down and rebuild into new mall, hotels or any other commercial. Mind that SW's land is indeed very valuable due to its location.
Other malls like Gurney, actually it is pretty steady.

c) There is no dividend stocks or growth stocks that can yield more than 5%, (excluded one off special one). That's why reit with >7% yield seems attractive provided they can have consistent DPU.

d) highly DPU may slip, due to drag of SW, as well as not much rental revision upwards potential for others.

e) CMMT has quite strong and good management based on its track record.

f) Fund manager react to its fund movement, and trend. They overbought reit until yield fall to 4% when QE at its height time. Now doing the reverse when interest rate starting to rise.
Typically fund manager will sell aggressive when a particular industry, stock near term future seems gloomy.

h) Many fund managers are getting their fee based on new unit issued/listing, instead of receiving in cash. If they are not doing a good job to maintain DPU, in directly they are paid lesser, as their unit worth become less.
While it free up reit cashflow and a little bit extra DPU for shrareholders.
Quite a norm practice in reit across be it Mreit or Sgreit.





17 Pages « < 10 11 12 13 14 > » Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0364sec    0.59    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 5th December 2025 - 03:30 PM