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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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cherroy
post Jul 28 2015, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(Orang Sabah @ Jul 28 2015, 11:45 AM)
Hi guys, newbie here. Has a fundamental question to ask smile.gif if a REIT is going to declare distribution in say, 2 weeks time. If I were to buy today, am I entitled to the distribution? if yes, does it matter if I buy now? or after distribution? as I am not sure if I buy before distribution, will be total wealth end up to be the same or not. Look forward hear from you guys
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Yes, you are entitled to the dividend as long as you bought before the ex-date.

After distribution, share market price will be adjusted accordingly.

Eg. Prior before ex-date closing price is Rm1.00, and it is distributing is 4 cents, next morning indicator opening price will be Rm0.96.
cherroy
post Jul 28 2015, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(Orang Sabah @ Jul 28 2015, 05:37 PM)
Hi Cherroy, thanks for the sharing. Noted on the price adjustment, appreciate it. Some mental block I have here,

Assuming I invested RM1k @ RM1 per unit (excluding brokerage cost for simplicity) ,I invested 5 business days before the ex-date and the interim distribution is assumed to be tax-free 4 cent per unit for 1H 2015. Can I say my distribution entitlement for 5 days will be roughly ( RM40 * 5/180 day) = RM1.11.

Is the distribution supposed to be calculated this way (apportion method) for those who came in half way since last distribution to the next distribution date?

On the ex-date, assuming the price did not change from my investment price of RM1, with 4 cent adjustment, the opening price will be RM0.96 like what you've mentioned.

Since my current 1K unit will be valued at adjusted price of RM0.96 ( equivalent to RM960) and plus the distribution I have received for the 5 days are RM1.11, so my total wealth is RM961.11, it seems like I have made a loss compared to my RM1k investment? is my calculation correct? feel free to correct me. As I am not sure how the REIT manager account for distribution for investor who came in half way.
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No, you get RM40 full.

You can read the FAQ section, https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1039913
if not well verse how the stock market works.

cherroy
post Jul 28 2015, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 28 2015, 06:22 PM)
How can u not love this REIT? rclxms.gif
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6% for one of crowded mall reit with OPR almost no chance to upside, it is like no brainer choice already.

cherroy
post Jul 29 2015, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 29 2015, 08:55 AM)
So, if part of the EPS includes unrealised asset gains, then DPS should be lower that EPS BUT it is now higher than EPS which makes it unsustainable.

p.s. I am not very sure on this. I hope Cherroy kor can clarify also. I read about it when he said something like that in the past.
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EPS is the sustainable figure, which should be the base in consideration.

The DPS can be higher than EPS is because instead paying the manager in cash, the reit is paying the manager by issuing new unit, hence there is extra cash left for distribution.
It is about cashflow.

Still we should judge it based on operational EPS as the ultimate, any extra treat it as bonus.

Edit:
I should term it as realised operation EPS.
This is where business generate the real profit.



This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 29 2015, 01:24 PM
cherroy
post Jul 30 2015, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 30 2015, 06:31 PM)
Ytlreit will distribute final Dividend of 2.3258 cents per share
Total Dividend paid/payable for FYE 6/2015 is 7.9746 which give DY of 7.52% (b4 wht)
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Before always around 1.8~1.9 cents.

Frankly speaking, I am not impressed with the dividend yield or its distribution due to its EPS number.

I prefer the old Starhill reit.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jul 30 2015, 06:46 PM)
YTLreit proposed share placement is still on? didn't hear anything about it  hmm.gif
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The placement proposal has been extended a number of time.

The proposal is still on, but still doesn't being carried out, even though the proposal has been about 2 years already.

cherroy
post Aug 4 2015, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Aug 3 2015, 10:28 PM)
any views from sifu-sifu sekalian on the recent subdivision of AXREIT? 1 split into 2 so that senang goreng? tongue.gif
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No effect, but I prefer no split.
High price looks more glamour. laugh.gif

Don't want to join those penny club. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Aug 6 2015, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 6 2015, 02:49 PM)
still wondering what could happen to reits when US rate hike....another panic sell meltdown? or a non-event? .....market is just too unpredictable.
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The rate hike more and less being anticipated and priced in the market already.

Stock market generally doesn't wait for the event to happen only start to move.
It always moves ahead one before the real event taking place.
That's why stock price moves the most when rumour flying around, instead of at the time of an event taking place.

If the event is known in the first place, then generally it won't have drastic movement when it actually occurs.



cherroy
post Aug 6 2015, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Aug 6 2015, 04:02 PM)
no 2nd round  cry.gif
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May be got, market sentiment is poor across.
cherroy
post Aug 6 2015, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Aug 6 2015, 04:45 PM)
with so Grexit, Oil drop and USD stronger...
sure there someone press panic button
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Grexit is not an issue now but local issue is the primary concern/risk for market.
cherroy
post Aug 6 2015, 05:00 PM

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Market a bit panic with RM fall to 3.91 vs USD.
cherroy
post Aug 6 2015, 05:09 PM

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Watch the yield of MGS and Klibor, these 2 figure can affect more on reit.
cherroy
post Aug 7 2015, 08:35 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 6 2015, 08:28 PM)
Thanks for feedback.

I'm still not too comfortable while facing rate hike market sentiment risk. Our M-REITs are trading at rather moderate yield despite currency disaster. Considering Axreit, Sunreit, Pavreit and IGBreit, their net yield are ranging from 4.7%-5.3%, where the troublesome sg wang makes cmmt a little higher at 5.6%. Ringgit had felt 24% yoy, which had not priced into the yield. I am not sure  what is current weight on foreign investors in M-REIT, especially Singapore investors. It used to be quite a bit for Sunreit and cmmt. If they pull out because of low return (aka depressing ringgit + moderate but not high net yield), could depress the share price.

Currently I owned a bit of cmmt and Axreit. Not dare to hold too much, only about 3% of my portfolio.
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With RM depreciation, property price will be looked more cheaper in term of newer foreign investor pov.

Once stock price of reit dropped down to higher yield range (like more than 6~7%), it actually look attractive for foreign investors.

Reit will become not attractive if USD carry yield more than 2-3%, which the chance is remote.
US rate hike won't go more than 1% range considered inflation is beneath due to commodities price slump and inflation figure staying low.

If US rate hike more than 2-3%, it just suggests that inflation start to become an issue, by then it just means commodities price going up already.
Commodities price going up, it just means property price may go up as well.
Property price up, reit valuation up.

There is always got positive and negative factor that falling in between. Not totally one sided.
With currency depreciation, hard asset is always preferred, and reit is one of kind of hard asset, the more important for reit is their portfolio has good premium property that always high in demand.


cherroy
post Aug 7 2015, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(waynew @ Aug 7 2015, 11:29 AM)
whats wrong with mqreit?
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Already ex-div, so currently less attractive, need to wait for another 3 months. laugh.gif
cherroy
post Aug 8 2015, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 8 2015, 01:01 AM)
Atrium declared Dividend of 3.6 cents in 2Q15
On annualized basis, its DY @ 9.38% (b4 wht) or 8.44% (after wht)
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You can't count like this.

There is one off disposal gain that contributed the higher than normal operation DPU.
Operational rental income has dropped from 3.7 mil last year Q, to now 2.6 mil.

If you stripe out the one off disposal gain amounted 4.2 mil, the DPU only around 1 cent only. (

Somemore another 1 property lease is expiring soon.
So future DPU may be in risk at lower side, until new tenant being secured on the vacant property.

That's the reason why I sell off my holding on Atrium at RM1.2x.

cherroy
post Aug 9 2015, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(bullchips @ Aug 8 2015, 02:46 PM)
From an investment perspective at current price of RM1.13. Upside potential RM1.30+ fully tenanted in best of market sentiment. Downside prospect ?

Total 4 properties.

1) Atrium Puchong vacant. DHL moved to own newly built mega facilities in SA.

2) Atrium SA2 (Ceva). 4 months lease expiring next month Sept 2015. REIT with such short lease means what? Customer leaving for other places soon ?

3) Atrium SA1 (DHL) lease expiring end 2016. Will DHL renew lease or move to own facilities in SA neaby like DHL puchong?

4) Atrium USJ the smallest is tenanted with 3 different customers, lease expiring between end 2015 - 2017.

Is leasing industrial size properties as easy/simple as renting a terrace house or apartment ?

Going to be an epic challenge in 2017 for Atrium if they are left with only Atrium USJ tenanted and 3 other non-performing properties to service interest on loans.

Means from hereon, downside prospect can worsen till 2017 when it,s trading at <RM0.30 ? cry.gif All the DPU you get cannot cover the hugh capital loss.  cry.gif

Good thing Atrium don,t have institutional investors, else they would have been sold down long ago. If I still have Atrium shares, I would take the opportunity to sell next week to some blur retail investors who don,t bother to do any research beyond reading the Bursa announcements.
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It won't trade below RM0.30 lah.

Even all property have difficulty to be leased out, worst to worst, liquidate all the properties and return the cash to shareholders.

The reit NAV stood at about Rm1.30, even fire-sale the property at 30% discount, you still have around Rm0.90 worth per share.
Properties itself still have their own worth.

cherroy
post Aug 9 2015, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(bullchips @ Aug 9 2015, 03:25 PM)
Er, in 2008/9 it traded about RM0.60 fully tenanted with just a potential risk on Atrium SA2. Nothing academic here, just illogical market sentiment which is part and parcel of the market. Inversely, how much would it have traded if all properties were vacant except one?

2017 is also about whence the next major stock market cyclical correction can occur - about every decade (give or take a couple of years).

It takes time to liquidate all the properties - meanwhile your $$ is locked with no income when opportunities abound elsewhere( stable DPU should be the only consideration for REIT ).

That's why the ? in my sentence.

P.S. would you buy at RM0.90 without DPU ? tongue.gif
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When it was plunging to RM0.60, it was not fully tenanted, one of major tenant moved out that resulted DPU plunged severely that's why its share price dropped so much at that time.
I had it that time, DPU plunged to around 0.8 cents, instead normal around 2 cents.

I won't buy at RM0.90 with no DPU, but I would buy if below RM0.40~0.50. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Aug 10 2015, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Aug 9 2015, 08:15 PM)
Bro cherroy,
Do you still hold MQreit?  biggrin.gif
So we shall look at this REIT when it touches 0.50 range?  tongue.gif
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Yes, but not keen on adding with the new acquisition.
I preferred the old Qcap.

When it touches RM0.50, investors may interest to privatise it.
Privatise at Rm0.50, fire-sale the property at 30% discount, you still get RM0.80~0.90,

cherroy
post Aug 10 2015, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 9 2015, 10:03 PM)
With NTA at 1.40, way before it touches 0.50, it will be privatised  tongue.gif

Let's hope for RM1.00 is more realistic  thumbup.gif
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RM0.80~1.00 is possible if DPU is poor.

Reit market looks for yield one.
NTA only can see, but cannot touch/eat one, tongue.gif so useless for investors until it is being liquidated.


cherroy
post Aug 12 2015, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Aug 12 2015, 09:10 AM)
Why is UOAREIT dropping so much?

Edit: Ok, so it's very low volume. But still shocking the lack of any buyers. I don't hold it but it'd always seemed like a decent REIT to me.
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All sold down across in the market, nothing spare, sentiment is bad across.
cherroy
post Aug 13 2015, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 12 2015, 04:34 PM)
If BNM raise rates, REITs will kena
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It is virtually no chance at all.

Raise rate by 0.25% won't able to stem the RM drop, while risking the economy into slowdown mode.

With the expectation of slow down in economy, the worst thing to do is to have a rate hike.

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