Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall
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 Mar 4 2015, 06:15 PM
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#21
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010 
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 18 2015, 09:59 AM) today: For the record...oil usd54, usd1=rm 3.595. maybe too early to say, but is rm now getting weaker despite oil some price recovery?   Today.. Oil usd51, usd1=3.6475. |
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Mar 10 2015, 06:11 PM
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#22
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Feb 19 2015, 09:42 PM) 3.73 is but a big psychological level in the mind of the market. It represents an invisible 'resistance' which if broken, would open the gateway to further rallying. Most of the factors you mentioned are economic data, and yes the interbank players do watch those, ESPECIALLY data from the US. Key events/data such as FOMC and NFP (Non-farm payroll as a proxy for unemployment) will move the market, typically how it works is this:  yr projections coming close. good us jobs report card last fri now pushing it the way u described. not quite 3.73 yet but getting close. Jan 29 2015 crude = usd44.50 usd = rm3.6375 Feb 4 2015 oil usd52, rm/usd = 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd1=rm3.60, again... oil usd50 Feb 18 2015 oil usd54, usd1=rm 3.595 Mar 4 2015 Oil usd51, usd1=3.6475. Mar 10 2015 oil usd49.60. rm 3.705 |
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Mar 16 2015, 11:01 PM
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#23
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Mar 16 2015, 10:24 PM) Heard any news there well be company cutting staff due to lii ow oil price in Malaysia? only read petronas will NOT cut staff.This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 16 2015, 11:14 PM |
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Mar 18 2015, 05:19 PM
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#24
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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date
crude price rm/usd Jan 29 2015 usd44.50 3.6375 Feb 4 2015 usd52 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd50 3.60 Feb 18 2015 usd54 3.595 Mar 4 2015 usd51 3.6475. Mar 10 2015 usd49.60 3.705 Mar 18 2015 usd44.12 3.709 |
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Mar 19 2015, 09:41 AM
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#25
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 19 2015, 04:04 AM) Nice little trending there. I have notice this thing. The US crude is always inverse proportional to our exchange rate. yes, i had the same question - is oil price still the driver for rm since msia is still deemed a net oil (or energy) exporter?However, if look closely always after the increase in US crude the next drop will still result in a higher rm/usd exhange rate against the previous one. So just want to conclude MYR is weak regardless of the crude. It may have some effect but I would say not significant. more likely, oil is still a factor but it's not all about oil anymore. fiscal deficit, debt, confidence appear to carry more weight. yellen's statement last night drove the usd down by 3% against the euro, and oil prices up by 5%. this morning, rm gained 1% over usd. compared to sgd or thb, no significant change as these currencies also recovered about 1%. now that the usd is back to more normal levels, we'll see how the rm fare from this point. Mar 19 2015 usd46.13 3.6725 |
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Mar 19 2015, 07:12 PM
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#26
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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date
crude price rm/usd Jan 29 2015 usd44.50 3.6375 Feb 4 2015 usd52 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd50 3.60 Feb 18 2015 usd54 3.595 Mar 4 2015 usd51 3.6475. Mar 10 2015 usd49.60 3.705 Mar 18 2015 usd44.12 3.709 Mar 19 2015 10am usd46.13 3.6725 Mar 19 2015 7pm usd45.34 3.708 |
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Mar 23 2015, 08:39 PM
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#27
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(topearn @ Mar 23 2015, 06:24 PM) Is it the April petrol price set based on Mar 31 oil price ? If yes, let's hope on Mar 31, oil price is lower vs Feb 28th. based on some osa'ed float mechanism formula.still, from jan, feb n mar prices, and corresponding crude prices, can expect 10 sen reduction in petrol price. unless some power decides otherwise. |
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Mar 27 2015, 01:16 AM
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#28
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 26 2015, 10:28 PM) But the funny thing is of all the bombing campaign it only surge 6%. us oil/energy stocks already retreating after a good run yesterday. think that's it!  QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 27 2015, 01:01 AM) Personally i do really hate them as they are putting my job at stake. in o&g? the local scene seems all hunky dory, no news of any staff reduction, etc. foreign cos. - i can understand, they r ruthless in times like this. stay cool. |
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Mar 27 2015, 01:41 AM
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#29
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 27 2015, 01:39 AM) Btw, are you in O&G too? i was, long time ago. seen things then that are happening now.  |
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Mar 27 2015, 07:35 PM
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#30
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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looks to me... in feb, crude price around usd50, rm hangs around 3.60.
mar, crude around 50, rm hangs around 3.70. feel free to make yr own inference.  will see what happens in apr, may... date crude price rm/usd Jan 29 2015 usd44.50 3.6375 Feb 4 2015 usd52 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd50 3.60 Feb 18 2015 usd54 3.595 Mar 4 2015 usd51 3.6475. Mar 10 2015 usd49.60 3.705 Mar 18 2015 usd44.12 3.709 usd46.13 3.6725 Mar 19 2015 7pm usd45.34 3.708 Mar 27 2015 7pm usd50.55 3.687 This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 27 2015, 07:38 PM |
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Mar 27 2015, 08:08 PM
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#31
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Mar 27 2015, 07:58 PM) USA is a net oil importer. They dont export oil due to the export ban even when there is excess lying around. low oil price is always good for USA. You need to differentiate between US shale oil producer interest and the country interest. In the long run USA is the one that benefit the most from suppressed oil price.  by the same token, the largest consumer of anything cannot be distressed with low prices of what they consume! can saudis drink crude for breakfast?!  only that... that nation can, at the same time, sell lots of iphones, aerospace, arms, etc. which it has done very well so far. similarly, msia will be much much richer if we can do a "shale oil job" on rice, veg, fish n meats, i.e. produce in excess so much so until there is a glut in the world! but... that will not happen as we are only interested to eat, not produce. |
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Mar 27 2015, 10:29 PM
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#32
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 27 2015, 09:51 PM) Yup saw mega oil tankers all over. this aspect is interesting.any idea how much storage is available there - still plenty, almost full...? saudi is said to be sitting pretty on usd700 billion reserves, surely can last a long fight. but do they have the space to store for say, another 6 months? unchartered territory - will anyone just dump anywhere or burn if n when the "overflow" situation arrives? This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 27 2015, 10:46 PM |
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Mar 29 2015, 07:00 PM
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#33
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 29 2015, 12:37 PM) eating popcorn while watching on side sifu2 sekelian argue about US shale oil & world crude price war u r the smart one! onlookers have clarity of mind, so they say!   seriously, i take stan's comment here at heart. for 2 reasons - gom is currently desperate for cash to continue the plunder legacy... and their track record of being not forthcoming with truthful facts. so, buy or sell anything u deem fit.  QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 29 2015, 04:59 AM) I can tell you that Shell and BP has already been selling their assets in GOM. |
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Mar 30 2015, 12:47 PM
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#34
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(supersound @ Mar 30 2015, 11:31 AM) You see, all the so-called financial expert/analysts are hired to cheat and mislead people. Who is their boss? Insurance companies, trust fund sellers are their rice bowl controller. this is actually a national disease, been festing for years: deny-blame someone else-so all is good.Will they tell the fact? Even with weaken rm against all the currency in the world, what the BNM's top person says? Still says it is ok. http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015...bigger-concern/ While another person that can use this excuse to increase the price. So, who to trust? not just rm but education, crime, illegals, road deaths, budget deficit, household debt... the list is very long. becos of that, nothing ever changes, no improvement, no will to face reality, pretend all is good. the world moves on, but many things n people here do not. who to trust...? trust no one! |
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Mar 30 2015, 05:36 PM
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#35
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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new closing low, i believe.
Jan 29 2015 usd44.50 3.6375 Feb 4 2015 usd52 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd50 3.60 Feb 18 2015 usd54 3.595 Mar 4 2015 usd51 3.6475. Mar 10 2015 usd49.60 3.705 Mar 18 2015 usd44.12 3.709 usd46.13 3.6725 Mar 19 2015 7pm usd45.34 3.708 Mar 27 2015 7pm usd50.55 3.687 Mar 30, 2015 5pm usd 48.10 3.713 This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 30 2015, 05:36 PM |
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Apr 1 2015, 02:25 PM
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#36
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(stanzai @ Apr 1 2015, 08:06 AM) Guys popcorn masuk angin.. strong resistance around USD55~ for brent and USD47~ for WTI. How did the Iran nuclear talk fair? brent now breaking <55.Anyways, seems like Iran will benefit regardless of the outcomes. iran talks went over time, likely a deal by end of day today. experts predicting usd5 fall! |
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Apr 1 2015, 05:17 PM
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#37
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 1 2015, 05:11 PM) extra crude supply from Iran after the deal? yup, that's the point. effect may be subdued in reality, but markets can react kneejerk.QUOTE Iran currently produces around 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Tchilinguirian, although Western sanctions limit exports to around only around 1 million bpd. The country keeps around 30 million barrels of crude on its fleet of oil tankers. "Which sanctions will be lifted and the uncertainty in the timing of lifting suggest that Iran will not be in position to significantly add to the current oversupply in the market," he said. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102551145 |
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Apr 7 2015, 06:24 PM
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#38
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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oil price volatile, usd decline, rm recovered.
volatility will not go away, do what u need to do at the right time! Jan 29 2015 usd44.50 3.6375 Feb 4 2015 usd52 3.564 Feb 11 2015 usd50 3.60 Feb 18 2015 usd54 3.595 Mar 4 2015 usd51 3.6475. Mar 10 2015 usd49.60 3.705 Mar 18 2015 usd44.12 3.709 usd46.13 3.6725 Mar 19 2015 7pm usd45.34 3.708 Mar 27 2015 7pm usd50.55 3.687 Mar 30, 2015 5pm usd 48.10 3.713 Apr 6 2015 6pm usd51.60 3.6395 This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 7 2015, 06:26 PM |
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Apr 9 2015, 11:11 AM
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#39
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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crude down 6%... but still usd51, nowhere near 40.... so no big damage.
if all these loud n soft noises about iran, saudi, iraq, shale, conspiracies, etc. are cut out... the baseline is intact - there is simply too much oil! and will remain so for months, maybe years.for us consumers, since we now pay more taxes with gst, cheaper petrol can help. |
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Apr 9 2015, 06:48 PM
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#40
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All Stars
24,456 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 9 2015, 04:51 PM) Crude oil may rebound to US$80 in 3-5 years -Franklin Templeton Investments i like this one better: http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...nklin-templeton our int rates are nowhere near 0. bnm should cut interest rates to exploit cheap oil prices for economic growth! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ct-of-cheap-oil |
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